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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#951

Post by insane_dreamer »

slifin wrote: post #803

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency So countries keep huge stores of dollars in their reserves because they need it for trade Then what happens is the US starts the money printer to pay for US government services This inflates the dollar and means that everyone who holds the dollar has lost value Including Americans who are paid for their labour with dollars and do not own assets So wealthy Americans/compan…

> everyone who holds the dollar has lost value

right, but it makes it easier for the US gov to pay its dollar denominated debts to foreign holders; the huge advantage of being able to borrow in your own currency!

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#952

Post by tlogan »

gnopgnip wrote: post #937
harimau777 wrote: post #890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It feels like the opposite is true. Things that used to be fairly common like owning a home or living in a major city have now become luxuries.

In New York City the homeownership rate has been about the same over the last 25 years, about 32%, about about 1% from pre pandemic. Looking at the national average it is about the same 65.5%, up about 1% from 5 years ago, with small changes over the last 50 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N

In 2024, the average age of homebuyers hit a record high of 56.

This highlights how any statistic can be used to support a narrative.

For instance, while the national average for homeownership rates remains relatively stable, it now comes with the reality that people are working harder and longer to achieve it. On the flip side, homes today are often larger and more feature-rich than in the past, which some might argue offsets the challenge.

The real question is: which of these factors—delayed homeownership or improved home quality—has a greater impact on how people perceive their economic well-being?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#953

Post by insane_dreamer »

dlkf wrote: post #593
sriram_malhar wrote: post #545

I like Vinod Khosla's take (on Twitter): Stop measuring GDP and instead measure the total income of the bottom 50% of the population and optimize policy for that. Additions and exits from this group can also be tracked. We get what we measure. Will this raise income inequality?

If we did this fifty years ago, we’d be having this discussion by snail mail.

And so what if we did, if it meant Americans were better off economically?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#954

Post by insane_dreamer »

dlkf wrote: post #593
sriram_malhar wrote: post #545

I like Vinod Khosla's take (on Twitter): Stop measuring GDP and instead measure the total income of the bottom 50% of the population and optimize policy for that. Additions and exits from this group can also be tracked. We get what we measure. Will this raise income inequality?

If we did this fifty years ago, we’d be having this discussion by snail mail.

And so what if we did, if it meant Americans were better off economically?

I can tell you I am no happier now that I have email than I was back in the snail mail days. In fact, if anything it's a negative.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#955

Post by tomcar288 »

hunglee2 wrote: post #590

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

that plus, the CPI is completely messed up.

Housing accounts for easily half of people's spending these days, especially the younger generation.

So, here's how you calculate standard of living: Nominal GDP per capita / Case shiller housing index.

Chart this and you'll see that we peaked in 1998 and have been in decline ever since then. We're actually down about 34% since that peak.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#956

Post by codexb »

bustadjustme wrote: post #924
Pigalowda wrote: post #902

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polls were very wrong - again. Their methodology is clearly flawed. I owe my friend an expensive steak dinner because I believed the polls. In the crisis era of non-reproducible science and bad data collection is it any surprise the polls are wrong too?

But the polls weren't wrong [1]. This was a normal polling error. If we expect polls to give us pinpoint accuracy, it's our expectations that are wrong. [1] https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-model-exactly-predicted-the...

Normal polling errors would lead you to believe that the actual results would fall equally and normally on both sides of the polling forecast. But they don't. The polling error is nearly always in one direction. Polling consistently underreports support for Trump in every case where we have actual results. We don't have this problem with other candidates, or even with other types of polls. There are theories about "low propensity voters" and maybe they don't show up in polls, but I suspect the real reason is more complex than that and involves some amount of self-reported filtering because of the demonization of Trump.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#957

Post by pie420 »

_1tem wrote: post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

You're describing hypochondria

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#958

Post by EasyMark »

_1tem wrote: post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

I’m pretty sure it’s combination of most of the money flowing uphill to millionaires and billionaires, and people in general are also being fed a ton of propaganda that the USA is falling apart which is BS. We have issues but so does every country. It’s hard to feel great if you have no free time to enjoy life, and as a society for some reason we have become very very consumerist, not taking (or even worse not having any) time to smell the roses, and the world is falling apart every night on the internet and/or television even thought it isn’t really.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#959

Post by dyauspitr »

dartharva wrote: post #820
dyauspitr wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else. India has 19 nuclear reactors it is planning to complete by 2030. 7 under construction now to be completed by 2026.

..which is still a ridiculously smaller number than what it should be aiming for.

There are 65 nuclear reactors planned to be built by 2030 across the world. One third of that by one country isn’t a small number.

Most of the rest are in China so the statement I was responding to is doubly meaningless.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#960

Post by ddingus »

ToDougie wrote: post #896
matthewdgreen wrote: post #863

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying the economy is good. But according to polling, many folks who said the economy was "poor" before the November election now believe it's doing great. All in a very partisan fashion, of course: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/blog_mi...

I don't know a single person in my sphere who feels this way. I think the common sentiment is things will probably improve and the stock market is up. Would be curious to see how UoM did their polling. Does answering truthfully about the state of the stock market indicate that you think that the economy is doing better?

They may be confusing current state sentiments with possible future state expectations and those sentiments, should expectations be met.

I have people in my "sphere"[1] who definitely have positive "let the sanity begin" type responses when the economy is under discussion.

[1] I think I like that term and am referring to the body of people with whom I am familiar enough to speak about in this way. Certainly not for though. I am not doing that!

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