GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…
Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
941–950 of 1001 posts
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#942US economy is soaring because the old guard (Europe) passed peak and all the new guard (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, BRICS) didn't quite live up to the hype once they reached near wealth parity. Where would you rather invest today - US or a demographically stagnant, highly regulated Europe? US or rapidly shrinking countries with risk-averse cultures like Japan and Korea? How about China where they might expropriate y…
If we just fast forward the video tape we see where this is going. Maybe thats why Elon is so eager to get to Mars.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#943Earlier quoted context omitted.
modern version of printing money is Quantitative Easing, but the US is in the opposite, Quantitative Tightening mode since 2022. Federal Reserve is essentially taking money out of circulation for the last two years.
To the contrary the M2 supply [0] indicates that the Fed's QT policy has barely taken any money out of circulation. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#944GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…
Using GDP to measure the health or rank of a company is like rating writers by the number of words they produce.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#945When elite papers say the "economy is doing well," what they usually mean is "the GDP is going up way higher than other places." What exactly is a GDP? It's literally the total sum of money SPENT by government, consumers, and businesses combined (this is the textbook definition, and how it's calculated).
When prices of stuff go up by 25% because there's a shortage of labor, or shortage of material, or shortage of infrastructural efficiency, by definition the GDP goes up 25%. There isn't any increase in life quality, nor any increase in the amount of stuff produced. This is why people feel like the economy is complete shit, while all the numbers point to the economy is doing well, and all the institutions that rely on these data (think tanks, policymakers, journalists) are baffled why people don't feel the same.
In contrast, in places that produce things very cheaply, if the export goes down, its GDP numbers will go down by definition. This in turn causes an overflow of goods internally, and prices paid by internal consumers even lower, therefore decreasing the GDP numbers even more. This is the opposite of the above scenario, where people are getting better things for cheaper, and their lives are improving without any increase in total compensation. All the while the numbers are telling a different story.
I think GDP might have been one of the biggest red herrings for policymakers. It's distorting their view of what's going well and what isn't.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#946US economy is soaring because the old guard (Europe) passed peak and all the new guard (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, BRICS) didn't quite live up to the hype once they reached near wealth parity. Where would you rather invest today - US or a demographically stagnant, highly regulated Europe? US or rapidly shrinking countries with risk-averse cultures like Japan and Korea? How about China where they might expropriate y…
Said in another way: The US is the last standing haven for the robber barrons of the world. Once the US falls there will be nowhere left for them to go. If we just fast forward the video tape we see where this is going. Maybe thats why Elon is so eager to get to Mars.
But if you want economic growth, someone needs to take risk. Capital formation, investment, founding companies. This is what leads to hiring and jobs.
Look at ossified cultures in EU, UK, and even Japan where stringent hiring/firing laws, shrinking populations and dire economic growth mean it's great to already be 40/50+ years old protected worker. Unfortunately it also means youth can't find jobs, and where they can they are under more tenuous contractual agreements than their older cohort has. Plus an increasing share of the taxes the youth pay will be to fund the generous retirement of their elders who outnumber them.
And again before some US Doomers chime in, take a global perspective. Go look up some rich world unemployment stats. The US right now has some of the lowest unemployment both historically and when compared against all the current global rates.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#947If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…
The unemployment rate is very low in the US while tightening of money supply is happening, it is a weird thing to witness as a new comer to the US. But one has to admit Jerome Powell did accomplish something significant given what his detractors like Summers were painting was going to happen given the covid bonus US citizens got.
Specifically, labor participation is near an all-time low so discouraged workers, who aren’t counted in unemployment numbers, are excluded.
Also, there has been a marked and ongoing shift from full-time jobs with benefits to part-time, casual, and gig work.
Finally, the widely cited consumer price index is a very politicized and skewed measure of the true inflation facing consumers. It ignores the real cost of home ownership via owner equivalent rent measures. It uses a process called substitution to replace suddenly expensive goods with cheaper goods. It includes arbitrary adjustments for improved quality of goods that aren’t always perceived by purchasers who only see the higher prices and these adjustments only work in one direction to skew CPI lower. That’s why consumers often perceive inflation to be higher than the CPI measure.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#948Earlier quoted context omitted.
We currently lack comprehensive metrics to effectively capture critical factors that normal people consider when asked “is economy doing well”. Here’s what we need: Home Rent Affordability: Analyzing affordability by profession and location to reflect real-world dynamics. Home Price Affordability: Assessing how accessible homeownership is across regions. Education Costs: Understanding the burden of education expenses…
Luckily smart people have resources and a mandate to study each of those questions at scale. You might be interested in the work that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics ( https://www.bls.gov/ ) does on the economic side of labor conditions, and that the Census department’s American Community Survey ( https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs ) does on the demographic and social side. Both of these groups study quest…
Take California, for example: asking rents have increased by 26% over the last two years. But this figure reflects only asking rents, not what people actually pay—especially in areas with rent control.
If you’re looking to upgrade to a bigger place (e.g., moving in with a partner or preparing for a baby), it might feel like the economy is in shambles. On the other hand, if you’re staying put in a rent-controlled apartment, things might seem manageable.
The data is there—it’s the context and perspective that shape the story.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#949Earlier quoted context omitted.
Enormous amounts of valuable activity is not captured in GDP and never has been. This makes it dangerous to take two GDP numbers from different polities (or even GDP PPP) and compare them to compare their wealth. However, change in GDP can tell you something broader about a society. It is a compounding value, which means only a trivial amount of GDP change can be explained by moving some of a society's value into or…
Perhaps growth rates in GDP PPP would be even better for comparing between countries? For example in the case of Ireland people might be misled if they looked only at nomial GDP growth…
Year-to-year, the difference between 2.5% and 5% doesn't matter, which is how people convince themselves to downplay growth. But they are two radically different worlds for your grandkids.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#950> the improvement was largely down to reconstruction efforts partly funded by the US via the Marshall Plan Most of the improvement was in Germany, which received far less MP money than Britain and France. Postwar prosperity correlates with the level of free markets. Germany embraced free markets up until 1970, Britain and France did not.