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Next stop: Miami

waymo.com

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Re: Next stop: Miami

#81

Post by xnx »

comte7092 wrote: post #58
kieranmaine wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Removing the driver does allow for single occupant models that could be significantly cheaper (reduced materials, smaller battery - assuming they'll all be EVS). It will be interesting to see how things develop once the driver is no longer required and cost is the most important factor (after safety). Exciting times!

Taxis today are already far far larger than they need to be for two people. Logistically you need the flexibility of having more seats available. If you’re in a rural area and need to transport a family are you going to send 4 vehicles separately? Ironically it’s probably urban areas where single occupancy vehicles make the most sense, given that there’s always going to be sufficient demand to allow for more speciali…

> If you’re in a rural area and need to transport a family are you going to send 4 vehicles separately?

Probably still years off, but Waymo will probably have a library of vehicles ranging from 2 seats to 20.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#82

Post by 0xB31B1B »

Philpax wrote: post #46
comte7092 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the end of the day that isn’t a technical problem but a unit economics one. Removing the driver from a taxi doesn’t bring down costs that much . Self driving cars aren’t going to change the uber/taxi model at a fundamental level. They have a finite fleet that they need to deploy. Urban centers mean that fleet utilization is high, and relatively less time and miles are spent driving with no one on board. In rural a…

Hmm, I'm not sure about that - fully autonomous taxis wouldn't be subject to the limitations of human drivers in terms of availability / reliability / endurance. You could ostensibly leave a few taxis around to service otherwise underserved areas and have them run without having to secure a driver each time. That being said, there is still the cost of maintenance and cleanup, but that can be mitigated (the taxis for…

Theres a bunch of factors that will mess with your intuition here: 1) ride hail demand as significant spikes in usage during morning and evening rush hours AND it has a fairly strong seasonal trend depending on geo. 2) Insurance is also a big expense and for large operations like this is priced per mile or per operating hour, having more deadhead time means a higher loss to insurance. 3) People are very sensitive to wait times AND reliability. The desire to use the service drops a ton when wait times are greater than 10 minutes or if you're consistently not able to find a ride. Could waymo support less dense suburbs now? Maybe at certain off peak hours, but the economics and product experience are difficult.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#83

Post by bickfordb »

simpleintheory wrote: post #4

I think the most interesting part is that the article says that Waymo's handing its operations to Moove. It seems like Waymo's trying to become a software provider while having other companies handle the capital-intensive parts.

Seems smart. They'll continue to have all the leverage since they own the tech and will offload all the operational risk

Re: Next stop: Miami

#84

Post by duped »

schiffern wrote: post #18
timmg wrote: post #3

I wonder when they will be able to provide service in northern cities (that get snow). Once they can do that -- and (I guess) can prove profitable -- they could expand non-stop across the country.

Anyone know the timeline for Waymo expanding to northern areas outside urban centers? Or are these underserved populations forever stuck waiting hours for an Uber that still cancels half the time?

I think ultimately the solution to this problem is the same as it was for electrification and telco: government funded mandates to provide service to populations where it's otherwise uneconomical.

One interesting thing today is that CoL can be as high in rural areas as urban areas in the same state, partly because the additional costs of things that don't scale (mostly transportation and healthcare). But we've given up on government helping people, apparently.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#85

Post by fixprix »

Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles.

I don’t know how Waymo can possibly compete with that. Their deployment by city is slow, their hardware is expensive, slown to produce, and not purpose built for self driving.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#86

Post by danielvaughn »

I’m sure they know much more than me and have thought this through, but it feels like Miami is an absolutely awful choice. Traffic is notoriously chaotic there. I’ve driven in LA, Chicago, NYC, Philadelphia, SF, Miami, etc. It’s by far the worst place to drive, moreso even than Manhattan.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#87

Post by filoleg »

itchyouch wrote: post #9
seeingfurther wrote: post #5

Miami probably has some of the worst, most lawless drivers in the country — it's like a free-for-all out there. Makes me wonder if Waymo picked Miami as a kind of stress test for their self-driving tech. If they can handle the chaos there, they can probably handle just about anything.

I'd imagine NYC to be worse than Miami. Miami seems to share enough similarity in warm weather to SF to be a similar enough use case to expand while providing slightly different driving conditions to be able to dip ones toes in to the driving habits of a different city.

Absolutely agreed. Not even just because of the weather imo, but because of the actual driving experience here itself.

I’ve lived and been driving for nearly 15 years in various large cities (SF, ATL, Seattle, Portland, LA, etc.), both cars and motorcycles, and NYC (where i currently live) is the only place in the US I absolutely refuse to ever drive (or ride) in.

Not just because it isn’t as necessary here due to public transit usefulness (which is also true), but also because driving here feels like entering a warzone. Narrow roads and parking, drivers being extremely on the edge and leaving a few cm distance max between each car in traffic, constant honking, having to make very dangerous maneuvers on the daily just to get somewhere, and just the cutthroatness of the whole thing here.

I genuinely believe that NYC will end up being the final frontier for Waymo, after all the other places in the US (aside from those with extreme snow conditions).

Re: Next stop: Miami

#88

Post by 1024core »

RivieraKid wrote: post #66
david-gpu wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would expect service to be canceled while it is pouring down. Do we have reasons to believe that they have the ability to ride safely during heavy rain? I haven't been keeping up.

They can handle heavy rain, see time 6:00: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bm1A3aaQnh0 From their August 2023 blog post: > During this past winter season in California with its record rain, high winds, and thunderstorms, we were able to maintain 99.4% fleet uptime

How does it make out lane markings? Or is it all just GPS-based?

Re: Next stop: Miami

#89

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

bedobi wrote: post #61

Imagine if instead Miami built MetroRail extensions to the beach and everywhere else it should go, increased TriRail frequency and express services, built a real network of fully segregated greenways etc etc. It would turn transport nightmare into transport heaven. We don't need more cars on the streets of Miami or the I95...

Well that would cost Miami taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars, and this costs Miami taxpayers nothing.

It would also take decades.

This will be happening next year.

Build all the transit you want. You need something for the next 30 years while you're doing that.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#90

Post by oblio »

fixprix wrote: post #85

Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles. I don’t know how Waymo can possibly compete with that. Their deployment by city is slow, their hardware is expensive, slown to produce, and not purpose built for self driving.

> Waymo is cool, but I have no idea how it is going to compete with the tsunami coming that is CyberCab. Tesla will be mass producing this smaller, cheaper vehicle like nothing else. Covering the entire country with self driving vehicles.

Don't fall for the hype.

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