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Next stop: Miami

waymo.com

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Re: Next stop: Miami

#41

Post by bbor »

mg wrote: post #23

our service – which already provides over 150,000 trips per week across Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Austin Interesting. That's about 8 million rides per year. I wonder how close they are to being profitable? As soon as they are getting close to being profitable, they will probably scale this up super fast. I don't know how much Google invested into Waymo so far. Something like $10B? If they at some point…

I imagine it's hard to quantify "profit" with such a research-driven org. It's like penciling out the profitability of the metaverse after years of $XX billion dollar losses. In general I get the sense that Waymo is more of a diverse investment than a pure ride-hailing play; for example, as of 2020 they were working for Volvo, Chrysler, Jaguar, and Nissan[1], presumably for $$$.

It's also worth remembering that Zoox exists (Amazon's more futuristic self-driving car play, no steering wheel at all), and has not at all gone the way of Alexa/the Dodo bird (yet). I expect them to make a big splash sometime in the coming decade, personally.

That is, of course, assuming they survive regulatory capture by Tesla, which would need a miracle or an unfair advantage to beat these two at this point, even if they finally follow the science on the need for LiDAR. Another big unknown is how the electorate will react to self-driving cars becoming more than a novelty; Elon Musk is absolutely correct that a backlash of some kind is inevitable even if the safety stats pencil out, IMHO. Trusting a machine is kind of inherently creepy - see Prof. Weinersmith's lectures on the topic:

- https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/decisions

- https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/fsd

- https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/self-driving-car-ethics

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/06/29/waymo-an...

Re: Next stop: Miami

#42

Post by jmyeet »

That's an interesting choice for several reasons:

1. Literally nobody in Florida can drive. Nobody indicates. People run red lights. They speed on the hard shoulder to overtake someone else who is speeding slightly less;

2. There's a lot of things that come down to timing, like when the bridges are up on the Venetian and over the Miami River. You can also get trains blocking the entire of downtown;

3. It seems like there's constant rerouting for closed roads, typically due to contruction;

4. Inclement weather. High winds and flooding. Biscayne Boulevard is often called Lake Biscayne. 30 minutes can be the difference between Miami Beach being dry and every road being 1 foot deep in water (not an exaggeration); and

5. What will be the covered area? I guess Phoenix and LA sprawl too but what constitutes "Miami" goes south, west and north pretty far. I mean there's no break between Miami, unincorporated Miami-Dade County and Fort Lauterdale.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#43

Post by ethbr1 »

fngjdflmdflg wrote: post #17

This is important if nothing else because Miami sees much more rain than SF and Phoenix: Miami: 57 in. ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset... SF: 25 in. ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset... ) Phoenix: 7 in. ( https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset... )

Also relevant, when it rains in Miami during the summer, it pours.

As in, zero visibility for 15-30 minutes, then it's past.

So if it can handle Miami tropical rain, it should be okay with all sorts of normal rain.

Out of curiosity, what's Waymo's current production sensor suite mix? I'd assume lidar and radar would also be very unhappy with the surrounding space suddenly being ~10%(?) liquid water droplets.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#44

Post by jeffbee »

mg wrote: post #23

our service – which already provides over 150,000 trips per week across Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Austin Interesting. That's about 8 million rides per year. I wonder how close they are to being profitable? As soon as they are getting close to being profitable, they will probably scale this up super fast. I don't know how much Google invested into Waymo so far. Something like $10B? If they at some point…

Just a few hours ago Sundar Pichai said it's 175k/wk https://youtu.be/kZzeWLOzc_4?t=926

Re: Next stop: Miami

#45

Post by bbor »

mg wrote: post #31
ezfe wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Profitable from an operations perspective? Surely close since they charge the same order of magnitude as an Uber/Lyft and have fewer than one driver per vehicle (monitoring the vehicles).

We have to add the deprecation and maintenance of the car. Plus I guess they need high resolution maps? Not sure if that is a significant cost factor.

I mean, they're Google -- I'm guessing they're pulling out their "pointcloud of the entire world" for this one. The first point is a great one, tho; rideshare companies exist by offloading as much cost as possible onto their employees, and even then barely make it work.

Plus, at least some of the Waymos are super-fancy Jaguars -- tho it looks like roughly 20K Jaguars to 65K Chrysler minivans, according to Wikipedia. Still, they're all brand new vehicles; even with bulk discount, that can't be cheap.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#46

Post by Philpax »

comte7092 wrote: post #26
schiffern wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone know the timeline for Waymo expanding to northern areas outside urban centers? Or are these underserved populations forever stuck waiting hours for an Uber that still cancels half the time?

At the end of the day that isn’t a technical problem but a unit economics one. Removing the driver from a taxi doesn’t bring down costs that much . Self driving cars aren’t going to change the uber/taxi model at a fundamental level. They have a finite fleet that they need to deploy. Urban centers mean that fleet utilization is high, and relatively less time and miles are spent driving with no one on board. In rural a…

Hmm, I'm not sure about that - fully autonomous taxis wouldn't be subject to the limitations of human drivers in terms of availability / reliability / endurance. You could ostensibly leave a few taxis around to service otherwise underserved areas and have them run without having to secure a driver each time.

That being said, there is still the cost of maintenance and cleanup, but that can be mitigated (the taxis for five towns could drive to one centralised depot, maintenance can be scheduled to maximise operational time, and eventually all of this can be automated, too)

I don't know if that's how things will work out just yet, but it seems like a possible future based on Waymo's current operational strategy.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#47

Post by bpodgursky »

rwmj wrote: post #21
bpodgursky wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Miami car insurance fraud rings are going to have a fun trying to trick Waymo into rear-ending them. Wonder if it will work.

Would you want to commit insurance fraud against a vehicle that is covered in cameras?

Yes.

The game is that you start to pull out for a right turn, and then brake unexpectedly and get the person behind you to tap your bumper, while they are looking for oncoming traffic to the left. Then you take your car to a "friendly" repair shop that overcharges for a new bumper (or claims to replace it) and split the payout.

There's nothing illegal about braking suddenly, the collision is always the fault of the person behind you legally, so there's no personal risk.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#48

Post by kieranmaine »

comte7092 wrote: post #26
schiffern wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone know the timeline for Waymo expanding to northern areas outside urban centers? Or are these underserved populations forever stuck waiting hours for an Uber that still cancels half the time?

At the end of the day that isn’t a technical problem but a unit economics one. Removing the driver from a taxi doesn’t bring down costs that much . Self driving cars aren’t going to change the uber/taxi model at a fundamental level. They have a finite fleet that they need to deploy. Urban centers mean that fleet utilization is high, and relatively less time and miles are spent driving with no one on board. In rural a…

Removing the driver does allow for single occupant models that could be significantly cheaper (reduced materials, smaller battery - assuming they'll all be EVS).

It will be interesting to see how things develop once the driver is no longer required and cost is the most important factor (after safety). Exciting times!

Re: Next stop: Miami

#49

Post by timerol »

schiffern wrote: post #18
timmg wrote: post #3

I wonder when they will be able to provide service in northern cities (that get snow). Once they can do that -- and (I guess) can prove profitable -- they could expand non-stop across the country.

Anyone know the timeline for Waymo expanding to northern areas outside urban centers? Or are these underserved populations forever stuck waiting hours for an Uber that still cancels half the time?

SF in 2015 (with passengers 2021), Phoenix in 2022, Miami in 2025. Northern urban centers are probably a decade out, let alone areas outside urban centers. There are a lot of cities in the Sun Belt to expand to first.

Re: Next stop: Miami

#50

Post by jeffbee »

bbor wrote: post #45
mg wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have to add the deprecation and maintenance of the car. Plus I guess they need high resolution maps? Not sure if that is a significant cost factor.

I mean, they're Google -- I'm guessing they're pulling out their "pointcloud of the entire world" for this one. The first point is a great one, tho; rideshare companies exist by offloading as much cost as possible onto their employees, and even then barely make it work. Plus, at least some of the Waymos are super-fancy Jaguars -- tho it looks like roughly 20K Jaguars to 65K Chrysler minivans, according to Wikipedia.…

Waymo does not have 85k cars lol. In their latest CPUC report they only have 480 cars in California and that is their biggest market by far. If they had 85k cars and only 175k rides per week that would be the worst business in the history of businessing.
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