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I'm starting to think Inverse HN would perhaps rival Inverse Cramer.
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Sure but predicting Bitcoin will crash again is like predicting the sun will rise tomorrow, obvious and not a novel or useful prediction. What is your long term prediction of whether/when it will die off and never recover? So far the "HODL" people keep getting vindicated every cycle with higher and higher peaks. Unless you can point to a specific strategy of when to short, what's the utility of this view? Even "just…
You are also correct in that buying it after a major crash has historically been a very good business. It’s still something which has no value, however, and I’d consider that a somewhat risky (and a losing for many) strategy compared to putting your money into energy, medicine and water.
Duplicate comment from the other thread: 11 years ago I sold 100 BTC, and made pretty good money. With that said, the more I think about BTC, the less sense it makes to me. Exceedingly few people actually use it for anything practical. The “store of value” functionality has completely eclipsed the practical use that Bitcoin maxis were preaching back then. Since 2016-2017, it seems like people have bought it for the s…
I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M. Extremely curious about your methodology here. Also I'm not sure how to process "the max value is only 5-10x from current prices so the big money has already been made". Can you explain?
Bitcoin is an asset like any other, there's no math I can do that will prove to you that someone can't just arrive tomorrow and buy this rock off of me for $2. And there's no math someone can do that can prove someone else won't show up the next day and offer $2 trillions for it, specially because their math can't predict inflation, or they'd be billionnaires on the futures market very quickly instead of showing off their math claims online.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Also, when I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M In what units? What makes you think there won't be Argentina-style inflation of the USD?
What makes you think BTC is an inflation hedge? BTC did not hedge the inflation event in 2022.
OTOH, government crackdowns might be able to tank the price.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Also, when I ran the numbers some time ago, I figured a realistic max value for 1 BTC would be 500k-1M In what units? What makes you think there won't be Argentina-style inflation of the USD?
My rationale is the following: 1) A very high (BTC/USD) rate will come from HUGE whales hoarding BTC. Like governments creating crypto reserves, and purchasing BTC in the magnitude of tens of thousands to low million (US have talked about purchasing a million). 2) BTC will never be a currency that is used for huge worldwide transactions, for things commodities like oil, gas, etc. No serious country will give up contr…
This increases the market for bitcoin mining and subsequently energy waste. For me personally this enough reason to ban bitcoin
Duplicate comment from the other thread: 11 years ago I sold 100 BTC, and made pretty good money. With that said, the more I think about BTC, the less sense it makes to me. Exceedingly few people actually use it for anything practical. The “store of value” functionality has completely eclipsed the practical use that Bitcoin maxis were preaching back then. Since 2016-2017, it seems like people have bought it for the s…
Duplicate comment from the other thread: 11 years ago I sold 100 BTC, and made pretty good money. With that said, the more I think about BTC, the less sense it makes to me. Exceedingly few people actually use it for anything practical. The “store of value” functionality has completely eclipsed the practical use that Bitcoin maxis were preaching back then. Since 2016-2017, it seems like people have bought it for the s…
First comment of any bitcoin thread on HN is always something like this, generally negative and a bit grumpy.
I get it but I’d say if you’re mad about Bitcoiners you should be a lot more angry about much of the financial industry and property speculators, two other huge groups that get rich without creating much value (or even by creating negative value).
There's a lot of value-free getting rich lately. People call it "late stage capitalism," but that frames capitalism as the villain when in fact it's a symptom of capitalism having created so much wealth we don't know what to do with it. The problem is that we're allocating it in incredibly dysfunctional ridiculous ways. I think what we're seeing is the symptoms of an early-stage post-scarcity society in denial.
The dysfunction arises from our clinging to scarcity-era puritanical ideas that only those who do a lot of work or do miraculous things "deserve" wealth. So we create all kinds of elaborate games and then convince ourselves that the winners of those games are somehow superhuman or superior in some Calvinist sense when they really just won a video game.
In a post-scarcity society baseline levels of wealth become like oxygen in the atmosphere. You don't "deserve" it. It's just there.
We are not quite post-scarcity yet, but we're close enough that craziness like $100k Bitcoin is possible. A few more key innovations will do it. Another order of magnitude drop in solar/battery prices and/or successful demonstration of a net-positive fusion power plant will do it. Embodied AIs that can do factory jobs will get us pretty far too, making the cost of manufactured goods almost equal to the cost of raw material inputs and energy inputs.
I'm starting to think Inverse HN would perhaps rival Inverse Cramer.
The inverse Cramer ETF lost 15% after a year and got shut down. Being wrong on the stock market does not mean that someone doing the opposite is right. Just like in software dev, there are infintely many ways to be wrong and by comparison only very few to be right.