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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#601
post #592

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

> US life expectancy has declined over the past three years Do you have a source for this ?

Quick googling shows that WHO/World Bank at least.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#602
post #592

GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…

> US life expectancy has declined over the past three years Do you have a source for this ?

https://www.google.com/search?q=us%20life%20expectancy%20&ie...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#603
post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

My understanding is:

* Perception of the economy depends tremendously on whether the president is of your preferred party. Whenever the presidency changes hands, you see a massive and rapid flip in which party supporters are satisfied with the state of the economy.

* If you ask Americans about how they are doing personally, as opposed to how they believe the economy is doing, their response is much rosier.

See also: "vibecession"

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Also by the Fed: 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense: https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-fi...

Perhaps because 4 in 10 Americans are bad with money. As jandrewrogers stated, Americans are not good savers. (I believe this is a big contributor to our trade deficit as well.)

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#606
post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

Perception can be manipulated in many ways.

People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill")

Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it.

And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many people because not everybody can be the average person.

So in a sense it's correct to say that these numbers don't capture reality while being technically correct. And that's because reality is much more complex than the things those numbers measure.

The question is: are those indicators useful? Provided you understand what they actually measure, can that be used as a control signal to help make choices that will go in the right direction and improve quality of life for everybody?

Perhaps the improvement will be marginal and not everybody's problems will be fixed, but is it unreasonable to think that problems cannot be fixed by a quick single intervention and that instead they will compound over time?

Look at the progress humanity has made in so many fronts. Ask anybody to pick a time in history where they would like to travel back and have a better life. The most frequent answer is either now or a few years ago when they were young and everything was better (likely because of nostalgia for youth or childhood).

Very few people would really want to be the average person in an era with poor sanitation, corporeal punishment, no education, illiteracy, expensive and faint artificial lighting, widespread diseases, non-existent dental care, low life expectancy

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Also by the Fed: 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense: https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-fi...

Question EF3. Suppose that you have an emergency expense that costs $400. Based on your current financial situation, how would you pay for this expense?

Response Percent

Put it on my credit card and pay it off in full at the next statement 37

Put it on my credit card and pay it off over time 16

With the money currently in my checking/savings account or with cash 45

Using money from a bank loan or line of credit 3

By borrowing from a friend or family member 10

Using a payday loan, deposit advance, or overdraft 2

By selling something 7

I wouldn't be able to pay for the expense right now 13

Note: Number of unweighted respondents 11,400

from https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2023-suppl...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#608
post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

> Perception can be manipulated in many ways.

Numbers are even easier to manipulate.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#609
post #588

If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perc…

This is exactly what I tell software engineers. They’re always like “but the software is complex and it’s not straightforward to do what you’re saying” and they gave some nonsense metrics for what complex is. It’s as easy as adding a button to a webpage to create an XML that integrates with this other tool we use but they can never explain why it’s hard. They come up with some “cyclomatic complexity” but it’s obviously easy: a single button. If it’s so easy, as my perception shows, then any numbers they’re coming up with are obviously wrong and they should just make numbers that match what I feel. And once those numbers show that it’s easy, they can just do it instead of making numbers that show it’s hard.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#610
post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perception can be manipulated in many ways. People get used to things and give for granted things that used to be luxuries a few generations back (see "hedonic treadmill") Combine that with active participants who control the media landscape and have a vested interest in painting a bleak picture so they can be the ones fixing it. And then of course there is the fact that things are of course objectively hard for many…

> Perception can be manipulated in many ways. Numbers are even easier to manipulate.

I think perception about what numbers mean is even easier to manipulate
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