Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.
>Looking at the numbers I'm reminded of this excerpt from 1984: But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just…
Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
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Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#592GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…
Do you have a source for this ?
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#593I like Vinod Khosla's take (on Twitter): Stop measuring GDP and instead measure the total income of the bottom 50% of the population and optimize policy for that. Additions and exits from this group can also be tracked. We get what we measure. Will this raise income inequality?
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#594Not a single word about shale oil and gas revolution, that started around 15 years ago? The US now has the one of the cheapest energy on earth, and probably the cheapest among the countries that matter. Pour all that cheap gas and oil onto an economy that was already a leader and you get lots of impressive growth.
It's not brought up because this is not the source of the growth whatsoever. It has only served to keep our gasoline and methane costs low compared to the rest of the world. That's nice for people but does not create massive economic growth in the 21st century of the kind being discussed. That is all coming from the tech sector. If you want to talk energy to power the server farms, the growth in energy is happening w…
Renewables are actually making it worse. We now have the "problem" that renewables cause spikes and saturation of the grid, and instead of causing low prices, the energy companies penalizes their customers. Claims it's due to renewables driving up grid maintenance costs because it was not built to handle the amount.
After all, energy produced _must_ be used or it will inevitably cause damage somewhere. For instance, you can't leave solar panels in the sun while they are not connected. If you don't use the energy, it will be turned into heat.
It's getting to the point where you actually are penalized for having rooftop solar. Most solar installations in the EU doesn't have a home battery, so either you have to give back surplus energy (electricity providers in some countries will actually charge you for this), or you can disconnect your solar if you overproduce but that will slowly damage your installation. Even if you don't plan to give back any energy, you still have to notify your provider that you have rooftop solar, if you don't it's a breach of contract, and if you do, they will charge you an extra maintenance cost.
It's funny because the government are pushing rooftop solar, but the energy providers are quietly telling their customers to fuck off with it.
But still even though the grid is absolutely full of cheap energy, and you should in theory pay very little, you still have to pay double or triple what those in the USA would ever pay.
Renewables are great, but also a shitshow because while we're building solar and wind installations, we're not building nearly enough grid storage.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#595But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#596But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.
US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…
Another aspect of these numbers is how much of the ordinary expenses are not luxury items but things like a car (because public transport is terrible), childcare (because people need to work to pay for it and the car that’s needed to shuttle kids around) and some healthcare (because public healthcare is nonexistent).
Americans pay a lot of money for things other developed countries would say is a basic human right.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#597But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.
US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…
Redefining pay check to paycheck to a definition literally nobody but yourself uses and then concluding few fit this definition isn't useful.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#598Because young people are not taxed to pay for retired people vacations. And because there is less of a credential obsession for most jobs.
So you get people starting to work younger: they create value earlier instead of being a pure weight on the system.
They're taxed less so they keep more of their money so they're established (house, business etc.) earlier and can spawn a new generation earlier.
Most of the socialized states have become gerontocracies where most of the GDP is funneled from the young actives to the retirees. Be it from socialized healthcare (old people use the majority of it), cushy retirement benefits or the simple fact they own most property and can rent it and lobby to keep prices high.
In France, median retirees have enjoyed better revenues than median working people for multiple years already. What was created so old people who can't work would not be destitute has become a life goal because it's "when you can start to enjoy things". 50 years ago, we had 3 active people paying for 1 retiree. Now those 3 people? We only got 1.7 active people paying for each of them.
Either the current working generation decides to stop the cycle and sacrifice themselves by continuing to pay for baby boomers and they forego their own "end of life vacation" so their rare grand children can benefit from their own work. Or the country is a third world economy next century.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#599Earlier quoted context omitted.
How so? Healthcare? FIRE seems much more attainable in the US
> How so? Healthcare? FIRE seems much more attainable in the US Much easier in Europe, go work in Switzerland or some high paying country then go retire in a low cost area with healthcare.
Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals
#600GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society. If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ah…
> US life expectancy has declined over the past three years Do you have a source for this ?
It's far more likely to be that teensy-weensy COVID-19 pandemic, both in terms of direct damage and also reduced care for everything else.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/cdc-us-life-expecta...