Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals • Hacker News Board

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#551

Post by willis936 » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:12 AM UTC

TeaBrain wrote: post #424

sangnoir wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is the majority of the population thriving? Looking at the numbers: low unemployment, strong consumer spending, average income increasing at a rate higher than inflation, I'd say the majority is doing better than most years. They might not feel that way though, and we've been in a continuous vibes-cession since COVID.

Real wages (adjusted for inflation) have fallen since November 2020. https://www.statista.com/chart/32428/inflation-and-wage-grow...

Meanwhile the real cost of housing is still increasing. It is a bipolar world: the haves and the have nots. If you own land: the economy is great. If you don't own land: you're screwed. Whatever metrics that say wealth inequality is down are lying. It's a polarized world of haves and have nots and people are pissed off.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#552

Post by nradov » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:12 AM UTC

matheusmoreira wrote: post #103

dlcarrier wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My theory is that other countries' trade is so closely tied to the US Dollar that when the Federal Reserve prints money it's not just diluting the US Dollar but all currencies. The US is effectively taxing the world, to pay for its own spending. As evidence that the US Dollar plays a large enough role for this to be the case, half of the banks bailed out in the TARP program were foreign to the US ( https://www.europe…

> My theory is that other countries' trade is so closely tied to the US Dollar that when the Federal Reserve prints money it's not just diluting the US Dollar but all currencies. The US is effectively taxing the world, to pay for its own spending. Yes. The BRICs economic group has been trying to launch their own currency for a while now. This is one of the reasons for it. Trump has threatened to impose 100% tax on th…

BRICS will never introduce their own currency anyway, so any threats by Trump are moot. Can you imagine India and China actually agreeing on a new currency structure? Lol, it's a total fantasy.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#553

Post by ulfw » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:18 AM UTC

jandrewrogers wrote: post #386

luizfzs wrote: post #255

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

I'd be careful with statistics like this.

Who defines what car is "necessary" (or is no car necessary in car-centric America?) vs "ordinary"?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#554

Post by yabatopia » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:26 AM UTC

Oh boy, here we go again. It's like the pre-2008 financial crisis all over again.

Growth is nice, but one look at the debt charts (public debt, credit card debt, car debt, mortgages, student loans, ...) and the trends in defaults and you know what's coming. Add the upcoming tariff plans and the gutting of financial regulations and consumer protection in the mix and you start asking yourself: in 10 years time, will we talk about the financial crisis of 2025 or 2026?

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#555

Post by KennyBlanken » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:32 AM UTC

sriram_malhar wrote: post #545

I like Vinod Khosla's take (on Twitter): Stop measuring GDP and instead measure the total income of the bottom 50% of the population and optimize policy for that. Additions and exits from this group can also be tracked. We get what we measure. Will this raise income inequality?

It's not just income. Corporate America has turned "prey upon the poor" into a science. Nobody really cares about protecting the poor from that sort of thing. So they'll have to deal with BS like, say, getting paid via a debit card, whose bank charges fees for nearly anything. Then there are the astronomical credit card rates/fees. There are no limits on credit card APRs.

Even government has been highly optimized for the ultra-weathly and tries to fuck over the poor. The poor get audited at a rate orders of magnitude higher than people who make $1M+/year, despite audits on the poor rarely recovering much in the way of unpaid taxes, but audits on the wealthy tend to make the IRS giant piles of cash, because rich people love to cheat on their taxes.

Then there's court fees. Get arrested, you're suddenly on the hook for a bunch of expenses. If you don't pay them - jail.

Further: look at the ease with which you can get hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax writeoffs for owning a bizjet.

Compare and contrast to the hoops a single mother has to go through every 6-12 months to keep "re-certifying" their children as qualifying for about ~$25 in monthly benefits for food for said kid. The appointments are only 9-5, M-F. Which means you have to take a day off from work; that means you lose at least $100 in income, which is a huge amount of money for a single mother working a minimum wage job.

The appointments are typically at state offices nowhere near major metropolitan cities or public transit, which means you need a car, or to take a taxi, or get a friend to drive you.

Apparently we need to be really concerned about single mothers just giving away their kids and still taking advantage of WIC at the tune of...$25/month?

Then there's all the administrative busywork generated by legislators who demand it so "taxpayers aren't ripped off."

Meanwhile, that bizjet sure does make a lot of weekend trips to Vail and the Bahamas in the winter...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#556

Post by janalsncm » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:45 AM UTC

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #550

sriram_malhar wrote: post #545

I like Vinod Khosla's take (on Twitter): Stop measuring GDP and instead measure the total income of the bottom 50% of the population and optimize policy for that. Additions and exits from this group can also be tracked. We get what we measure. Will this raise income inequality?

This the guy that illegally keeps fencing off public beach?

I would say this is a pretty good example of an ad hominem attack.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

If the standard is that someone has to be unimpeachable before they can suggest a well-being metric than no one can.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#557

Post by data_maan » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:49 AM UTC

naming_the_user wrote: post #148

spiderfarmer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is number one in quality of life and that’s all that matters to me. If we work just hard enough to maintain and maybe even improve it, other countries can do their pissing contest.

This feels like a huge generalization to me. The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error. I've travelled a fair amount and everywhere is basically the same. For an individual it's really going to come down to lifestyle and what you prefer. Some people like urban living and walkability, if that's you then you probably want Japan or ol…

> The US, UK, EU and realistically most developed countries I would say have fairly similar quality of life within margin of error.

Ahem... Have you seen the standards in the UK get diluted year after year post-Brexit?

There's more to the story than the listed examples.

Environmental standards dictate your risk of developing various diseases later in life so are a big difference in quality of life. E.g., if you drink tap water from UK vs other countries, with high PFAS levels, where it essentially comes from a spring in the mountains - that's a huge difference.

Another difference is job security which again has a huge impact. Consider France: If you get an unlimited contract at a company you're essentially set for life (unless the company goes busy, or you mess up in a very bad way). Compare that to the scare many US dev employees hat to ensure in spring 2023 when all the big tech companies were doing layoffs. Also, France had a much shorter work week.

So, no, quality of life doesn't even compare remotely between these countries. Only perhaps for the upper 3% it is similar - if you're an average tech dev, your life will be much much nicer in Paris than in a random SF/LA suburb.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#558

Post by janalsncm » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:52 AM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #14

This is an interesting take, because it contrasts with GDP PPP [0] which is suggesting that America is in fact being overtaken by its rivals although it has managed to outpace the EU. China is claiming to already be ahead and India is well on track to gain absolute economic ascendancy relative to the US. And I expect that Asia is going to start developing some serious military muscle on the back of that because they…

I think generic metric metrics like GDP PPP have to be put into context. When I was in China I was shocked by how much stuff there was. Not even nice things, but stuff to the point most westerners would consider cluttered.

Rent was also super cheap.

On the other hand iPhones were pretty expensive. Enchiladas were super expensive too.

These aggregated stats have to guess what you’ll buy and base their estimate off of that. Your actual financial situation will be very dependent on what you need to buy.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#559

Post by pm90 » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 4:56 AM UTC

staunton wrote: post #284

seydor wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech is not a 'problem'. It has replaced Finance in the pecking order of power relationships. Since US controls it , it can exert control everywhere where its tech goes. China shielded itself from it early on.

> Tech [...] has replaced Finance in the pecking order of power relationships Not at all obvious to me. Is there any particular measurable thing you're referring to, or is this just your personal feeling?

As far as I see, tech has destroyed the “legacy media” almost completely. Only the older generation pays any attention to it: all the young people get their news from TikTok and podcasts; even the older generation has gotten brain rot from falling into Facebook/Youtube attention algorithm hell. And that is just one part of it.

Look all around you and tech is everywhere, from apps to hail cabs to get groceries. Our lives are now so fully immersed and our decisions dictated by tech companies its fucking insane. That is a lot of power.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#560

Post by semiquaver » Thu, Dec 05, 2024, 5:00 AM UTC

janalsncm wrote: post #556

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This the guy that illegally keeps fencing off public beach?

I would say this is a pretty good example of an ad hominem attack. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem If the standard is that someone has to be unimpeachable before they can suggest a well-being metric than no one can.

I disagree. When one demonstrates contempt for the public we should be inclined to pay less attention to their opinions on public welfare.