Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pretty much fair game for speculation. The only way this is not bad for the tech industry was if he resigned due to medical or age reasons. That would not be unexpected. Doubtful that is the issue with Intel's track record. Curious when we will know if 18A is competitive or not. > If 18a is not ready I think the best case scenario for Intel is a merger with AMD. The US Govt would probably co-sign on it for national s…
> If A-tel (Amd-inTEL) can not sell to the EU the merger will not happen. What the EU gonna do then? Stop buying computers? Perform rapid continental ARM transition for mythical amount of money?
Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
181–190 of 777 posts
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#182Pat had the mandate from both the board and the market to do whatever he deemed necessary to bring Intel back to the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing and a leading edge node. Frankly, I don't think he used that mandate the way he should have. Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but he probably could have used that mandate to eliminate a lot of the middle management layer in the company and refocus on pure engineering. From the outside it seems like there's something rotten in that layer as the ship hasn't been particularly responsive to his steering, even with the knowledge of the roughly 4-5 year lead time that a company like Intel has to deal with. Having been there for so long though, a lot of his friends were probably in that layer and I can empathize with him being a bit over confident and believing he could turn it around while letting everyone keep their jobs.
The market reaction really does highlight how what's good for Intel long term as a business is not necessarily what the market views as good.
Folks in this thread are talking about a merger with AMD or splitting the foundry/design business. I doubt AMD wants this. They're relatively lean and efficient at this point and turning Intel around is a huge project that doesn't seem worth the effort when they're firing on all cylinders. Splitting the business is probably great for M&A bankers, but it's hard to see how that would actually help the US keep a leading semi-conductor manufacturer on shore. That business would likely end up just going the same way as GlobalFoundries and we all know that didn't really work out.
The most bizarre thing to me is that they've appointed co-CEO's that are both basically CFO's. That doesn't smell of success to me.
I think one of the more interesting directions Intel could go is if Nvidia leveraged their currently enormous stock value and moved in for an acquisition of the manufacturing division. (Quick glance shows a market cap of 3.4 trillion. I knew it was high, but still, wow.) Nvidia has the stock price and cash to support the purchase and rather uniquely, has the motive with the GPU shortage to have their own manufacturing arm. Plus, they've already been rumored to be making plays in the general compute space, but in ARM and RISC-V, not x86. Personally, Jensen is one of the few CEO's that I can imagine having the right tempo and tenor for taming that beast.
I'm curious what others think of the Nvidia acquisition idea.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
Pretty much fair game for speculation. The only way this is not bad for the tech industry was if he resigned due to medical or age reasons. That would not be unexpected. Doubtful that is the issue with Intel's track record. Curious when we will know if 18A is competitive or not. > If 18a is not ready I think the best case scenario for Intel is a merger with AMD. The US Govt would probably co-sign on it for national s…
> If A-tel (Amd-inTEL) can not sell to the EU the merger will not happen. What the EU gonna do then? Stop buying computers? Perform rapid continental ARM transition for mythical amount of money?
> Perform rapid continental ARM transition for mythical amount of money?
And what is Intel + AMD going to do? Not sell CPUs in Europe?
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would the US govt allow a merge with AMD? Sure they won't allow Intel to be bought by a foreign company, but surely everyone would much rather see Intel being bought by literally any other company than AMD and Nvidia.
What other US companies are equipped and interested in running a giant chip design/fab? NVIDIA and AMD are likely the only two candidates.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
I actually did email Deepak Patil (head of Intel Graphics division) about this around a year ago, haha. Never did get a response though. It is something that is easy to miss if you are just looking at typical business strategy and finances. A high memory consumer GPU would undercut their server GPUs, which are presumably higher margin intended golden geese. It's easy to see them chasing server markets and "gamers" be…
> It's an extremely powerful position to have every at-home AI geek's setup to be bound to using intel cards So, incredibly small market share while your competitors already have the first-mover advantage and nailed down the ecosystem? With no data backing it up, I think, graphics cards for local LLM needs is not really on demand. Even for gaming it’s probably more attractive, but then again, that’s not even where th…
Exactly. This x100. It was easy for Nvidia to succed in the LLM market by winging it, in the days when there was no LLM market, so they had the greenfield and first mover advantages.
But today, when Nvidia dominates the mature LLM market, Intel winging it the same way Nvidia did, won't provide nearly the same success as Nvidia had.
Ferruccio Lamborghini also built a successful sports car company by building tractors and cars in his garage. Today you won't be able to create a Lamborghini competitor with something you can build in your garage. The market has changed unrecognizably in the mean time.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#186I feel like this is a mistake. Pat's strategy is aggressive but what the company needs. Intel's stock is jumping at this announcement, but I look at it as a bad signal for Intel 18a. If 18a was looking to be a smash hit then I don't think Pat gets retired. If 18a is a success then it is an even more short-sighted decision by the board. What this likely means is two-fold: 1. Intel 18a is being delayed further and/or t…
> The moat of the two companies together would give the new combined company plenty of time to ramp up their fabs. I'm not convinced of this. Fabs are incredibly expensive businesses. Intel has failed to keep up and AMD spun off their fabs to use TSMC. There is also ARM knocking at the door for general computing. It's already gaining traction in previously x86 dominated markets. The model for US based fabbing has to…
I know anecdotes aren't data, but I was talking with a colleague about chips recently and he noticed that converting all of his cloud JVM deployments to ARM machines both improved performance and lowered costs. The costs might not even be the chips themselves, but less power and thermal requirements that lowers the OpEx spend.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#187This is not good. We already know what happened when CFO took over. It was a time when Intel totaly lost control. They are gona get bought for penies. OMG Instead of saying to AMD they will be in the rearview mirror, they should have been paranoid. Not do stupid GPUs. and destroy others where it mattered
"Gelsinger said the market will have less demand for dedicated graphics cards in the future."
(from: https://www.techspot.com/news/105407-intel-not-repeat-lunar-...)
Gelsinger apparently agreed with you. However, the market very clearly has enormous demand for discreet GPUs. Specifically for AI workloads (not PC gaming).
If I was on Intel's board I would've fired him for this statement. The demand for GPUs (parallel matrix processors with super fast local memory) is NOT going to go down. Certainly not in the next five to ten years!
I know Intel makes a lot of things, has a lot of IP, and is involved in many different markets but the fact that they're NOT a major player in the GPU/AI space is their biggest failure (in recent times). It's one of those things that should've been painfully obvious at some point in 2022 and here we have Gelsinger saying just a few months ago that somehow demand for AI stuff is just going to disappear (somehow).
It's magic hand waving like this that got him fired.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agree with OP that Intel was probably too deep into its downward spiral. While it seems Pat tried to make changes, including expanding into GPUs, it either wasn't enough or too much for the Intel board. Splitting Intel is necessary but probably infeasible at this point in the game. Simple fact is that Intel Foundry Services has nothing to offer against the likes of TSMC and Samsung - perhaps only cheaper prices and e…
He failed on GPU. The product was substandard. That means either he knew and allowed it to happen, which is bad, or he didn't know and allowed GPU division to squander the resources, which is even worse. Either way, it was an adventure Intel couldn't afford. There is a similar story in other areas.
Intel deserves a lot of blame but they also got hit by some really shit circumstances outside of their control.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#189Well their stock is already in the dumps, they can't do much worse than they already have been. Divesting from their discrete GPUs just as they were starting to become a viable value option was one of their most recent asinine decisions. No idea why they didn't try test the market with a high RAM 64GB+ card before bowing out to see how well they'd do. Nvidia's too busy printing money to add more RAM to their consumer…
Exactly, I was discussing this with a friend the other day. I'm sure there must be a market for high RAM GPUs, even if they're not as fast as NVIDIA GPUs.
Re: Intel announces retirement of Pat Gelsinger
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> If 18a is not ready I think the best case scenario for Intel is a merger with AMD. Aside from the x86 monopoly that would create, I don't think Intel has much of value to AMD at this point other than the fabs (which aren't delivering). IMHO if Intel is failing, let them fail and others will buy the pieces in bankruptcy. This would probably benefit several other companies that could use 22nm and up fab capacity and…
I'd like to address the aside for completeness' sake. An x86 monopoly in the late 80s was a thing, but not now. Today, there are sufficient competitive chip architectures with cross-compatible operating systems and virtualization that x86 does not represent control of the computing market in a manner that should prevent such a merger: ARM licensees, including the special case of Apple Silicon, Snapdragon, NVIDIA SOCs…