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Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

lemire.me

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Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#11

Post by CamperBob2 »

saraid216 wrote: post #2

Global warming is one of those topics I've always withheld judgement on because it's such a huge topic that, even ignoring politics, it seems very hard to get a solid understanding of the science.

I agree, and what annoys me is that as a supporter of public-school science education via www.ncse.com and other organizations, I find myself being dragged into debates I didn't want to participate in. NCSE in particular has decided to lump criticisms of climate education in with their original cause, which was to do something about widespread attempts on the part of religious people to subvert public-school biology curricula.

Strong evidence for anthropogenic climate change exists, to the best of my understanding. However, it's roughly 3.4 gazillion times weaker than the evidence for evolution by natural selection. There are reasons why I am actively interested in helping with one fight but not the other... but the organizations that I support as proxies in the fight don't appear to understand or care. I'm not even sure how annoyed I should be about this state of affairs, frankly.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#12

Post by CamperBob2 »

grecy wrote: post #9
kstenerud wrote: post #3

"Let us look at the predictions made in 1990: they predicted an increase in temperature of 0.3C per decade, plus minus 0.1C. Yet less than 0.2C of warming per decade was observed. To be blunt, they got it flat wrong." How much less than 0.2C was it? 0.3 +/- 0.1 means it can be anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4, so unless it was grossly under 0.2, it wasn't flat wrong. "there are alternatives to banning oil production: solar r…

Even more ridiculous.. the full quote is: "We might be able to setup space mirrors or otherwise increasing the reflectivity of our atmosphere. Obviously, we cannot hope to both keep pumping CO2 in the atmosphere, and correct for it afterward: this could quickly become economically infeasible." In the context of killing the planet and the entire human race, we still mention a plan could be "economically infeasible". J…

Sigh.

We're not going to "kill the planet," or the entire human race. Humans adapt. That's what we do. That's why we won.

Such hyperbole endangers vital rational discourse on the subject.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#13

Post by Strangiato »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #4
saraid216 wrote: post #2

Global warming is one of those topics I've always withheld judgement on because it's such a huge topic that, even ignoring politics, it seems very hard to get a solid understanding of the science.

Unfortunately, by deciding to be "neutral" on the issue, you're exactly where the climate change deniers want you to be. The deniers don't have to be proven correct to prevent action on climate change, they just have to put out enough FUD to create doubt.

There is no need to ascribe malice to those that disagree with you about climate change issues. Reasonable people can disagree, especially on an issue that is complex and depends on predictions about future conditions.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#14

Post by CamperBob2 »

nickpinkston wrote: post #6
saraid216 wrote: post #2

Global warming is one of those topics I've always withheld judgement on because it's such a huge topic that, even ignoring politics, it seems very hard to get a solid understanding of the science.

That's true - but when there's risk of something, you need to buy insurance. Alt. energy, geo-enginnering, and small CO2 taxes are all ways of hedging that we should deploy in some combination. We can't say "don't know, therefore do nothing".

Spoken like a natural-born insurance salesman!

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#15

Post by jack-r-abbit »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #4
saraid216 wrote: post #2

Global warming is one of those topics I've always withheld judgement on because it's such a huge topic that, even ignoring politics, it seems very hard to get a solid understanding of the science.

Unfortunately, by deciding to be "neutral" on the issue, you're exactly where the climate change deniers want you to be. The deniers don't have to be proven correct to prevent action on climate change, they just have to put out enough FUD to create doubt.

But from the "deniers" side it is the "what ever you call the opposite of deniers" who are using FUD.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#16

Post by TheAmazingIdiot »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #4
saraid216 wrote: post #2

Global warming is one of those topics I've always withheld judgement on because it's such a huge topic that, even ignoring politics, it seems very hard to get a solid understanding of the science.

Unfortunately, by deciding to be "neutral" on the issue, you're exactly where the climate change deniers want you to be. The deniers don't have to be proven correct to prevent action on climate change, they just have to put out enough FUD to create doubt.

Most of the real changes would require many people to die.

Going back, worldwide, to a pre-industrial civilisation would be a possibility. However, We're looking at 90% fatality rates to get to that point due to lack of food production. Probably would be even less than that. No chance in happening, unless forced by catastrophic event.

Another possibility is tremendous rationing. We see what having even simple healthcare is in this country. Instead, we would look at rationing everything in the world, including determining who lives and dies by how much resources they use (carbon debt). With 2 high input/output countries, good luck on this happening either.

And we have to look at all the smaller ways to handle global warming. One proposal is to dump megatonnes of lime in the ocean?! Or perhaps this carbon credits scam: it makes the rich richer (Well, where DOES the money go?). At least sources of energy like solar or wind make sense... Until you realise the amount of energy to make a solar panel is greater than the total energy you will get out of it. Bummer.

And underlying is this assumption that global warming == CO2 peak.. I've heard of this law called thermodynamics. CO2 may trap heat, but heat generated anywhere is still heat. We generate heat via our vehicles, electric grid, generators, burn piles, and other human sources of heat. Is this not a direct consideration as well?

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#17

Post by dmlorenzetti »

kstenerud wrote: post #3

"Let us look at the predictions made in 1990: they predicted an increase in temperature of 0.3C per decade, plus minus 0.1C. Yet less than 0.2C of warming per decade was observed. To be blunt, they got it flat wrong." How much less than 0.2C was it? 0.3 +/- 0.1 means it can be anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4, so unless it was grossly under 0.2, it wasn't flat wrong. "there are alternatives to banning oil production: solar r…

Among the many annoying half-truths of this article is that he doesn't make any attempt to discuss why the predictions from the 1990s were wrong. For example, we now know that dumping of heat and CO2 into the oceans is a bigger effect than originally modeled. In other words, thinking about the big picture, things are worse than was thought (because it means measures like putting up giant sky-mirrors aren't going to reverse committed warming as easily as they might).

Ultimately, he advocates technological fixes. For a more critical, but highly readable, look at this subject, see Michael Specter's "The Climate Fixers" from the New Yorker this past May: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/05/14/120514fa_fact_...

Had the OP read the New Yorker article, he might also understand that his references to "forbidden thoughts" are entirely unjustified. The thoughts he expresses are actually quite conventional, and widely discussed in scientific circles.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#18

Post by angrow »

kstenerud wrote: post #3

"Let us look at the predictions made in 1990: they predicted an increase in temperature of 0.3C per decade, plus minus 0.1C. Yet less than 0.2C of warming per decade was observed. To be blunt, they got it flat wrong." How much less than 0.2C was it? 0.3 +/- 0.1 means it can be anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4, so unless it was grossly under 0.2, it wasn't flat wrong. "there are alternatives to banning oil production: solar r…

"As a sceptic, I'm quite sure that some kind of cool technology or another will make this not be a problem any more."

Seems legit.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#19

Post by allardschip »

stonemetal wrote: post #5
kstenerud wrote: post #3

"Let us look at the predictions made in 1990: they predicted an increase in temperature of 0.3C per decade, plus minus 0.1C. Yet less than 0.2C of warming per decade was observed. To be blunt, they got it flat wrong." How much less than 0.2C was it? 0.3 +/- 0.1 means it can be anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4, so unless it was grossly under 0.2, it wasn't flat wrong. "there are alternatives to banning oil production: solar r…

Also wasn't that 0.3C in a nothing done to avert it scenario? With various green efforts around the world I would expect it to not quite hit the mark.

Despite all the green efforts, CO2 output from using fossil fuel still grows. Western economies barely, if at all, made a dent in their fossil fuel consumptions. Upcoming economies like China use more and more fossil fuels. I think its fair to say that we are nowhere near having a solution to reduce global CO2 output.

Re: Facts about global warming that you should keep for yourself

#20

Post by allardschip »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #12
grecy wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even more ridiculous.. the full quote is: "We might be able to setup space mirrors or otherwise increasing the reflectivity of our atmosphere. Obviously, we cannot hope to both keep pumping CO2 in the atmosphere, and correct for it afterward: this could quickly become economically infeasible." In the context of killing the planet and the entire human race, we still mention a plan could be "economically infeasible". J…

Sigh. We're not going to "kill the planet," or the entire human race. Humans adapt. That's what we do. That's why we won. Such hyperbole endangers vital rational discourse on the subject.

A run a way process in which we loose all life on earth is not something I have read a lot of proof for. However, adapting to a changed climate may not be a pretty phase for the human race.
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