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Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

londonbanker.blogspot.co.uk

11–20 of 140 posts

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#11
post #3

If you want to see what the different libor submissions by banks were: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/jul...

What should I get out of that? I see that some banks wanted it higher, some wanted it lower. That doesn't seem like a scandal.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#12
post #3

If you want to see what the different libor submissions by banks were: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/jul...

What should I get out of that? I see that some banks wanted it higher, some wanted it lower. That doesn't seem like a scandal.

I think the scandal is that it doesn't matter what the banks wanted, they should have been reporting what rate they were actually giving out at.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#13
post #4

I don't understand why this stuff isn't front page news of mainstream (cnn, fox news, etc.) newspapers. You'd figure with all the lingering resentment this would be a huge field day. Currently relegated to business news journals.

I think we overestimate what the media can really do. The public always wants them to lead the charge, but traditionally, they've rarely done so. They've always trailed behind activists, politicians, and social movements.

And to some extent it makes sense; things really become "stories" when there's a nonzero possibility things might change. And that doesn't happen unless there are champions, pointing the way to some other possible future. In the USA, both parties favor hushing up financial scandal, so it's really hard to break through.

There's this great fantasy show on HBO right now, The Newsroom, where one news show decides to lead the public rather than following them.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#14
post #4

I don't understand why this stuff isn't front page news of mainstream (cnn, fox news, etc.) newspapers. You'd figure with all the lingering resentment this would be a huge field day. Currently relegated to business news journals.

One reason is that the London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBOR) are just not as relevant as they used to be: "...the scandal has shed light on an inconvenient truth about these interbank rates which are used to determine the price of so many hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of global financial contracts. That inconvenient truth is that even when London Interbank Offered Rates are not "fixed", they may still not b…

There are hundreds of trillions of dollars of derivates tied to the LIBOR. If the LIBOR moves 0.01% it translates to shifts in billions of dollars around the globe.

Fixing the LIBOR is one of the (if not the) biggest thefts in history.

Free-market capitalism is a joke. Deregulation and corporate socialism has led to a dysfunctional society ruled by a kleptocratic elite.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#15
post #3

If you want to see what the different libor submissions by banks were: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/jul...

What should I get out of that? I see that some banks wanted it higher, some wanted it lower. That doesn't seem like a scandal.

Well, IMHO, Barclay's is taking alot of heat for the entire industry.

They were correctly reporting their libor rate, which scared some people as it was higher than other banks libor rates.

Partially because other banks were lying, partially because they were in more trouble than other banks.

The government asked Barclays to falsely report their libor rate at a lower amount.

This has the effect of lowering the reported libor rate. The libor rate is important as it's the base rate for pricing alot of other paper. This other paper is the base rate for pricing alot of derivatives,etc.

if you follow the chain, the libor rate can indirectly affect the price of literally trillions of dollars of financial instruments.

Hence the hoopla surrounding the rates manipulation.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One reason is that the London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBOR) are just not as relevant as they used to be: "...the scandal has shed light on an inconvenient truth about these interbank rates which are used to determine the price of so many hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of global financial contracts. That inconvenient truth is that even when London Interbank Offered Rates are not "fixed", they may still not b…

Back in 2008 my ARM's rate was tied to LIBOR. I doubt I Was alone.

But the the manipulation was as likely in your favor as it was against you.

Edit: I take it back. Looking at the data, Barclays was definitely cheating against you.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#17
There should be another entry in the YC RFS http://ycombinator.com/rfs.html :

10. Kill Wall Street (etc.)

We now have the technology to completely remake the financial system -- not just make 'banking' or whatever easier online, but a thorough and innovative re-imagining of what the whole thing should even be about.

Information structure is the essence of all cooperative systems, and that means the economics of tomorrow is absolutely about software -- its architecture, its engineering.

The practicalities mean this cannot be tackled directly, but someone needs to think big and work on it (in various ways).

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#18
Real life dwarfs gaming. Remember the recent EVE exploit? Someone discovered that it was possible to pump prices of low liquidity goods, pack ships with said goods, destroy the ships and score an unusually high LP, due to the artificialy inflated "value" of those goods.

The underlying mechanism is the same - someone ties some kind of payout to a market price. Then someone other discovers that th price is not something that reflects the market equilibrium but rather something that can be manipulated so that it maximizes said payout rather than market efficiency.

It is a bit scary, especially if you tie real money in gaming goods. Or if you tie real money in goods whose price can be gamed.

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What should I get out of that? I see that some banks wanted it higher, some wanted it lower. That doesn't seem like a scandal.

Well, IMHO, Barclay's is taking alot of heat for the entire industry. They were correctly reporting their libor rate, which scared some people as it was higher than other banks libor rates. Partially because other banks were lying, partially because they were in more trouble than other banks. The government asked Barclays to falsely report their libor rate at a lower amount. This has the effect of lowering the report…

> The government asked Barclays to falsely report their libor rate at a lower amount.

Allegedly

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and LIBOR

#20
post #17

There should be another entry in the YC RFS http://ycombinator.com/rfs.html : 10. Kill Wall Street (etc.) We now have the technology to completely remake the financial system -- not just make 'banking' or whatever easier online, but a thorough and innovative re-imagining of what the whole thing should even be about. Information structure is the essence of all cooperative systems, and that means the economics of tomor…

You're missing that all of these things have valid uses. Take CDS for example. They're a very efficient way for organizations to mutually insure each other's risks, cutting out the middleman. The trick is to cross them with two uncorrelated things (pork bellies and frozen OJ, for example) rather than using defaulted mortgages to insure umm defaulted mortgages. Or CDOs, done right they're how a bank protects itself against a run and is still able to do maturity transformations (e.g. turning monthly salaries into 25-year mortgages).
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