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Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

jpkoning.blogspot.com

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Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't control inflation with interest rates; we do some economic theatre with interest rates that some people believe controls inflation in a predictable way.

Correct, it's mostly theater , and people nerding out on the numbers. The true measure of inflation is this: For a single day one works (calculated over a lifetime), how many days can one survive without working which will pay off all of one's bills. The lower this figure, higher is the inflation.

Huh? What does this have to do with inflation at all?

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#92
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do show this very strong evidence that the effect is any more than the supply chains sorting themselves out. Even some within the CBs are doubting the causality. Japan had the lowest inflation of any major economy post COVID, and yet persisted with essentially a ZIRP. There's a good argument that in our high reserves world, interest is actually inflationary.

UK historical investigation: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781557758897/ch07... - written in 2000, but you can see on this graph https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni... how flat it is from 1992 to 2020. That's a very good record for any piece of policy. Inflation control works for controlling business cycle inflation. However, it's not perfect and the COVID+war shock resulted in u…

Now show the UK plot for the 2010s. Also, show the one for Japan. It's easy to cherry pick data to show whatever you want. It doesn't constitute strong data for a casual and reliable link between interest rates and inflation.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#93
post #27

Fascinating piece of financial history I hadn't heard about. Imagine your government telling you to literally take scissors to your money, it's like a weird mix between arts & crafts hour and monetary policy. Though I suppose we're already halfway there with our modern central banks, just without the satisfying snip-snip sounds. The Finnish experiment failing because people just deposited their cash in banks first is…

Turkey dropped six zeroes off their currency in the 2000s. Technically, you could describe that as cutting 999,9999/1,000,000 of their money supply. (Especially if they had done a funny dance like the Finnish, where you would use some scissors to only keep the tiny top left corner of your old notes, and can exchange that for new ones.) In practice, people saw the Turkish currency reform as merely a cosmetic change, n…

Romania dropped several zeros in 2005, so 1,000,000 became 100. As someone who was around at that time, I still tend to think of prices in the old system, which makes me look ridiculous to younger people and even most of my same-age peers.

Albania dropped a single zero way back in the mid-20th century, and yet even generations born long after that still think of prices in the old system. The first time I went to Albania, I was paranoid and made a scene in shops, thinking every shopkeeper was trying to rip me, a foreigner, off by quoting a price an order of magnitude higher. My face was red when someone finally explained how the country works.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#94
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahh…no. The Fed sets the interest rate directly. What you are talking about is yields on treasury bonds, which are manipulated via bond buying to force money into assets by artificially dropping the yield of those bonds, thus creating a more attractive investment in the stocks, assets, etc.

I described Open Market Operations, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_market_operation > The Fed sets the interest rate directly. So which interest rate does the Fed set directly, and how does that setting have any effect on the economy? (I know they have interest on excess reserves. I already accounted for those in my original comment. I know, they are annoying and misguided. I was mostly talking about the syst…

The Fed directly sets the Overnight Rate, also known as the Federal Funds Rate. It's the rate at which banks can borrow from one another overnight to satisfy reserve requirements. This rate indirectly affects the interest rate of all other lending instruments because the higher cost of overnight bank to bank lending is passed on to the customers in the form of higher loan rates, credit card rates, mortgage rates, etc.

The Open Market Operations you described (completely different from the Overnight Rate) are a form of stimulus. Because money always seeks higher risk-adjusted returns, the Fed will buy treasuries, which drives down their yield. This makes them an unattractive investment, so the money goes where it can get a better risk-adjusted return. That's usually in the market. So by adjusting treasury note yields, they can stimulate the economy. Furthermore, those treasury bonds are bought with printed money, so this is effectively a way to inject massive amounts (trillions of dollars) of printed money directly into the economy. It's pretty crazy when you think about the power that these policies have.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#95
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK historical investigation: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781557758897/ch07... - written in 2000, but you can see on this graph https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni... how flat it is from 1992 to 2020. That's a very good record for any piece of policy. Inflation control works for controlling business cycle inflation. However, it's not perfect and the COVID+war shock resulted in u…

Now show the UK plot for the 2010s. Also, show the one for Japan. It's easy to cherry pick data to show whatever you want. It doesn't constitute strong data for a casual and reliable link between interest rates and inflation.

Plot the days when your air conditioner is on with the temperature of your room. It will have many concrete examples and a long-term correlation showing that actually, the air conditioner is associated with the temperature going up.

All feedback/control systems are like that.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I was surprised to find out that Russia had been conducted sabotage operations against UA artillery ammunitions dumps for many years prior to full scale invasion, and the Ukrainians had already lost the majority of their artillery ammunition reserves this way by the time invasion began.

And they conquered Crimea in 2014--partially, if I remember right, to get a port that doesn't freeze over in the winter, something they have wanted for literally hundreds of years.

They already had https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Novorossiysk for that.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now show the UK plot for the 2010s. Also, show the one for Japan. It's easy to cherry pick data to show whatever you want. It doesn't constitute strong data for a casual and reliable link between interest rates and inflation.

Plot the days when your air conditioner is on with the temperature of your room. It will have many concrete examples and a long-term correlation showing that actually, the air conditioner is associated with the temperature going up . All feedback/control systems are like that.

Your argument would have more weight if the inflation predictions were accurate. Here's the prediction report for the BoE in Aug 2014: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-...

(It's worth noting that even with the assumption of the models used being useful, the spread on those inflation rates is wild).

Here's what actually happened: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/time...

It very rapidly hit the bottom end of the prediction range before jumping up again pretty high. All that time interest rates were held constant and low.

Given they claim feedback lags of two years or so, one wonders what the point of all this is... (one cannot run a control loop with control lags substantially longer than the time constant of the system; that's basically the recipe for an unstable control system, assuming of course the control system is doing anything).

There's an argument that it's inflation expectations that matter, but there are dissenters within the temple that disagree: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap...

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#98
post #25

> It's not just the size of Operation Gutt that is striking to the modern eye. It's also the oddity of the tool being used. Today, we control inflation with changes in interest rates, not changes in the quantity of money. To soften the effect of the global COVID monetary overhang, for instance, central banks in the U.S., Canada, and Europe began to raise rates in 2022 from around 0% to 4-5% in 2024. It's a bit more i…

That's just one mechanism, but not the primary way in which the Fed controls interest rates.

The Fed is a large provider of short-term loans ("fed funds") to cover interbank exchanges.

It also is the lender of last resort and lends to banks directly ("discount rate").

By changing these rates, the FED can influence the rates the banks charge each other for loans, and down the line to consumers.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The European Central Bank said it’s due to energy.

The people who caused the problem say they weren't responsible for the problem. Do you see the issue here?

That goes both directions, though. Central banks are prone to understating their responsibility for bad things; the gold bugs and crypto hodl folks are prone to overstating it.

The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. The US's relatively soft landing post-pandemic seems to demonstrate some use of monetary policy in this fashion works.

Re: Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

#100
If this second thing last paragraph doesn't make your skin crawl then I don't know what will:

"Cash, which is awkward to immobilize for policy reasons, will be gone in a decade or two, leaving the public entirely dependent on bank deposits and fintech balances which, thanks to digitization and automation, can be easily controlled by the authorities. To rein in a jump in inflation, central bankers will require commercial banks and companies like PayPal to impose temporary quantitative freezing on their clients' accounts, but unlike Finland's 1945 blockade, the authorities will be able to rapidly and precisely define the criteria, say by allowing for spending on necessities — food, electricity, and gas— while embargoing purchases of luxury cars and real estate"

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