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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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41–50 of 115 posts

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#41

At this point, what would Russia have to do to get back onside with the rest of the world? Obviously, ending the conflict with Ukraine is the first step, but what else would they need to do? How long would it take for them to get out of the doghouse, so to speak?

I think a major change in leadership would be the first step.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#42
post #16

Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only winning move is import substitution, not kowtowing to whatever terrorist demands.)

Sanctions against Apartheid South Africa ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during...

Sanctions on Iran were relaxed in exchange for partial cooperation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_agains...

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#43
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have an investor account and I know for sure the stock market isn't closed.

“Closed off” means “restricted access to”. It doesn’t mean “closed”. I have no idea what restrictions the parent was referring to, but they weren’t saying that the stock market shut down.

Perhaps you're right. English isn't my native language - thanks for explaining.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#44
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have an investor account and I know for sure the stock market isn't closed.

“Closed off” means “restricted access to”. It doesn’t mean “closed”. I have no idea what restrictions the parent was referring to, but they weren’t saying that the stock market shut down.

As a "westerner" you will need a Russian residence permit I think to trade. I at least would not know how you can actually buy something in MOEX as someone based in Europe.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#45
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard of any accidents in civilian air traffic in Russia in last few years. Of course you're free to make your choices. Anyway, don't overestimate the issue: 2.5% of the fleet seems to be grounded right now.

Hmm, I think you may have just not been paying attention? There was the Superjet that crashed and burned at Lukhovitsy just a few months ago, the A320 that ran out of fuel and landed in the field near Novosibirsk a year ago, the AN26 that crashed in 2021, the Superjet that crashed and burned at Moscow in 2019…

I forgot about the incident at Lukhovitsy - that was w/o passengers. 2019/2021 incidents are completely out of scope of "recent years".

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#46

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#47
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterintuitively, yes, because air travel is a Cournot good and you grow/make money by expanding supply (more planes), which they can’t

Which they can, because Russia produces aircraft domestically.

In theory yes, in practice deliveries of domestic aircraft have stalled. The Sukhoi Superjet 100 for instance hasn't had a delivery in 2 years and I think the Tu-204 also did not get any deliveries though they expected some this year. It is however also very hard to find out what exactly is going on, because the information regarding civil aviation is quite restricted nowadays.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#48
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterintuitively, yes, because air travel is a Cournot good and you grow/make money by expanding supply (more planes), which they can’t

Which they can, because Russia produces aircraft domestically.

Barely. The Sukhoi Superjet trickles out of the factories, and the other two projects have been delayed again and again.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#49

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

>There's a reason why they closed off their stock market That's a completely false information. The stock market isn't closed.

Foreigners are not allowed to sell on the Russian stock market from the Russian side [0] and they're generally not allowed to buy from the sanctions side. This means that as a foreign investor you're barred from trading in any useful meaning of the word. Buy and hold in the hopes that you might be able to maybe some day sell, whether that's in a year, ten years, or a hundred, is not really a viable strategy. That's also the reason why investment and asset management companies of all sizes are trying to find their exits from the Russian market, see for example Van Eck [1], just the latest addition in a long line of many:

> Regulatory and market conditions do not currently permit the Funds to conduct transactions in the local Russian market.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/limited-russian-sto...

[1] https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-equity/r...

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#50
post #27

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable. And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs. It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0]) With the wrinkle that…

Russia is a civilian aircraft producer. There's no need for Chinese airplanes (which they have troubles with).
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