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The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
31–40 of 74 posts
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#32An analog of the birthday paradox that gets me all the time is what I think of as The Locker Room Paradox. This is where when I go into the locker room after working out and the guy who comes in behind me ends in the locker right next to mine. So there’s two of us in a big empty room awkwardly jostling away.
(Apologies for the fun-ruining comment.)
For it to be a true analogue if the birthday paradox, it would have to happen rarely to you individually, but surprisingly often to one pair of people in the locker room when there are a smallish number in there.
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Birthday Paradox is about a group of people sharing at least one birthday between them. If it was at least 1 person out of 23 people sharing YOUR birthday then the odds would be 1 - (364/365)^23 which is around 0.06 (or 6% chance). So, yes, this scenario is a lot less likely.
Thanks for that. I believe the fact that it asks for a birthday puts people's brain in a mode where the awe at the end is bigger. Related, having flat tires on a car seems to come in little bursts,like 10 years none and then 2 in a year.
Can confirm, but both times it was a screw or something in my tire so I presume someone dropped some at a point of my commute.
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, it's also extremely unlikely. The actual distribution in developed countries is not uniform: there is a spike at the end of September (because many more people make babies at or around New Year's Eve) and a considerable drop on Dec. 25th (because people will avoid that date and provoque the birth some days before in case it might happen). Also, on the site there is a huge spike on Nov. 15 which, incidentally, is…
Why do people not like having their child be born on Xmas?
It's that some small percentage of births are intentionally induced for various medical reasons. Sometimes because the baby is full term but labor is not starting on its own yet. Other times an OB will attempt to rotate a full term baby that's in breach position to avoid needing a C-section surgery. Successful or not, this rotation procedure has a chance of triggering labor (which is why they wait until the baby is at or close to full term before trying it).
Bottom line: hospitals are short staffed on Xmas so they set scheduled procedures which may induce labor for the day before or the day after whenever possible which preserves their limited capacity on Xmas for unscheduled births and emergencies.
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#35Aren't there birthdays that are more likely than others?
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#36I really like the fact that it's using the previous user birthdays. Unfortunately today is my birthday and I think a lot of people are entering today's date as their birthday, I got 6 matches... :)
I have FOUR significant people in my life with November 15th birthday, so I just groaned when I saw the author’s birthday.
And happy birthday phito :)
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#37An analog of the birthday paradox that gets me all the time is what I think of as The Locker Room Paradox. This is where when I go into the locker room after working out and the guy who comes in behind me ends in the locker right next to mine. So there’s two of us in a big empty room awkwardly jostling away.
Assuming you don't have an automated system to give away locker keys, wouldn't this be explained by the fact that gym front desk is more likely to give out the lowest number available and as you took X, they will give out X+1 for the next person?
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#38I was going to say that I was disappointed that the page didn't show the formula for the probability and show how it changes as you change the number of people in the room.
Then I checked the wiki page and understood that some of the maths is actually quite fiendish (for non mathematicians anyway) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, it's also extremely unlikely. The actual distribution in developed countries is not uniform: there is a spike at the end of September (because many more people make babies at or around New Year's Eve) and a considerable drop on Dec. 25th (because people will avoid that date and provoque the birth some days before in case it might happen). Also, on the site there is a huge spike on Nov. 15 which, incidentally, is…
Why do people not like having their child be born on Xmas?
My sister’s birthday is a few days after Christmas. She hated this as a child because once her birthday was over there was almost a whole year without any prezzies
Re: The Birthday Paradox Experiment (2018)
#40An analog of the birthday paradox that gets me all the time is what I think of as The Locker Room Paradox. This is where when I go into the locker room after working out and the guy who comes in behind me ends in the locker right next to mine. So there’s two of us in a big empty room awkwardly jostling away.
Assuming you don't have an automated system to give away locker keys, wouldn't this be explained by the fact that gym front desk is more likely to give out the lowest number available and as you took X, they will give out X+1 for the next person?
I've never been to a gym where you're assigned a locker for the day (or given a key). Either you have one permanently assigned (rare) or you go in and find one that isn't occupied.