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New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
101–110 of 162 posts
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US civil war is not the only time the US has been politically unstable. The civil rights movement, the labor disputes of the 1970s, the economic shocks every decade or so from market crashes all have been moments of instability. What is January 6th if not a concrete example of recent political instability? As for foreign policy consistency, 7 administrations takes us back to Reagan... The entire movement to sell…
Stability doesn't mean statis. The USA has been remarkably resilient to those minor shocks you listed. It continues to be the most politically stable of all the countries that actually count for anything in international affairs.
If some catastrophic event is required to define instability, then by definition any country will be stable right until one second before catastrophe. This may work fine for certain analyses, but for predicting if or when that event may happen it is useless.
You're saying "nothing bad will happen because nothing bad has happened so far". There's a first time for everything.
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no world in which giving cash or territory to the Chinese Communist Party would be acceptable to US taxpayers, regardless of the consequences.
i think you mean war-hawk capitalists, this taxpayer thinks cooperation is fine
Not in that context.
China as a whole is seen differently than the Chinese Communist Party.
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
You’ve explained what Kessler syndrome is but not why my idea doesn’t work. I’m saying send reinforced rockets through the orbits that absorb the collision instead of generating more dust. That should let you clear a path through all orbits that intersect your path. It’s hard to do and the 3d aspect of it might make it expensive but conceptually it could be a solution. Or use super powerful lasers (potentially mounte…
It takes about 90 minutes to complete a low earth orbit. A rocket can't hover in place for 90 minutes at the same altitude, then increase its altitude by its height and repeat. It doesn't have enough fuel for that.
Go the other way. Attain maximum altitude and then descend slowly. You don’t need to do this with just one rocket. This would be a clearing exercise composed of multiple rockets.
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#105I love Sabine Hossenfelder's videos but the audio effects on the transitions are killing me.
I wish she would put on a different shirt every once in a while.
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would any of the US' adversaries agree to that? We have SpaceX, and they do not; lowering the altitude of megaconstellations is asymmetrically far more costly for them then it is for us. Stopping China's (highly strategic, military) satellite constellations isn't a "small amount of diplomacy". It's an impossibility. (It's even their declared planning that deliberate Kessler cascades are on the table [0]—to try to…
I think OP is suggesting US concede to sharing 500km orbits that SpaceX has disproportionately squatted rights to, since current international law is first come first serve. Where concede is to rejigger international law to increase density of 500km so others wouldn't have to go higher, i.e. PRC mega constellations going ~800 because ~500 mostly taken. Or in ops suggestion, free for all. This is more costly for US si…
No; rather, that commenter's argument was
"The most tempting orbits are the ones in upper LEO that permit them to launch fewer satellites."
Higher altitude => wider coverage => fewer satellites
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is Kessler syndrome the Great Filter ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter )? As in, is it the thing that makes it so no one else has broken out of their planet to come visit us? I could totally see it being the case that as soon as a civilization gets good enough at putting stuff into space, they start putting a lot of stuff into space and then things start crashing into each other to the point that they can’…
No. The space junk at a given orbit makes it unviable to put more satellites in that orbit, but launching beyond that orbit is still viable.
How can you get past that orbit if there is all this junk destroying your rockets????
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#108The current trajectory is that SpaceX proved the commercial and military viability of an LEO megaconstellation, repeatedly lowering their target altitudes and raising their satellite count because of debris and cell size concerns... And now the rest of the world is trying to catch up in a sort of arms race, and not taking any care about debris concerns. The most tempting orbits are the ones in upper LEO that permit t…
We are currently in a low-trust, selfish world where all hope of collaboration has gone out of the window, so we are on an unchangeable trajectory towards things like Kessler Syndrome and climate hell.
> Kessler Syndrome and climate hell
Both of which demonstrate that our species is much better at understanding how to scale madness and destruction than how to scale sustainable activity.
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. The space junk at a given orbit makes it unviable to put more satellites in that orbit, but launching beyond that orbit is still viable.
How can you get past that orbit if there is all this junk destroying your rockets????
Ideally a satellite is in a given orbit for years. If junk is destroying it in weeks or even months you’ve got a massive issue.
However a rocket is spending in a seconds in that same orbit. Thus a rocket passing through may only have say 1:10,000 odds of a collision on its way to mars while satellites are getting shredded.
Re: New Calculation Finds we are close to the Kessler Syndrome [video]
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
Rather than protection on each rocket, couldn't you just send a bunch of fortified rockets that absorb the debris during a collision but don't emit anything. Do that a few times and then all other rockets just reuse the path that was cut?
> couldn't you just send a bunch of fortified rockets that absorb the debris during a collision but don't emit anything. "Just" how? Orbital collisions happen at an average of 10km/s, you're going to make what, some kind of sponge that can get hit by a chunk of satellite going ~8x faster than a bullet and absorb it and slow it to a halt without fragmenting at all? Good luck. > Do that a few times and then all other r…
A large mass of Whipple shields.
The "clearing a path" idea is inane, but we do know how to absorb hypervelocity debris impacts while generating a net negative amount of debris.