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El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

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Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#51
post #6

So, they built this supercomputer to test new and more deadly nuclear weapons. That makes me so "happy". I am absolutely not worried about two nuclear powers being close to the brink of direct war, even as we speak; nor about the abandonment of the course of nuclear disarmament treaty; nor about the repeated talk of a coming war against certain Asian powers. Everything is great and I'll just fawn over the colorful li…

I'd guess it's unlikely to be the real use case. The real one is classified. Plus it's not like more deadly nuclear weapons would change anything, we can do bad enough with what we already have.

Maybe there is research not on bigger bangs, but on smaller packages?

Think about a baseball-size device able to take out a city block.

Then think about an escadron of drones able to transport those baseballs to very precise city blocks...

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#52
post #27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually. The increases of compute power have been used for twin goals of reducing simulation time (letting you run more simulations) and to increase the size and resolution. The alternative is to literally build and detonate a bomb to get empirical data on given design, which might have problems with replicability (important when applying the results to r…

Are they always designing new nuclear bombs? Why the ongoing work to simulate?

Multiple birds with one stone.

* It's a jobs program to avoid the knowledge loss created by the end of the cold war. The US government poured a lot of money into recreating the institutional knowledge needed to build weapons (e.g. materials like FOGBANK) and it's preferred to maintain that knowledge by having people work on nuclear programs that aren't quite so objectionable as weapon design.

* It helps you better understand the existing weapons stockpiles and how they're aging.

* It's an obvious demonstration of your capabilities and funding for deterrence purposes.

* It's political posturing to have a big supercomputer and the DoE is one of the few agencies with both the means and the motivation to do so publicly. This has supposedly been a major motivator for the Chinese supercomputers.

There's all sorts of minor ancillary benefits that come out of these efforts too.

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#54
post #15
post #7

I fail to understand how these nuclear bomb simulations require so much compute power. Are they trying to model every single atom? Is this a case where the physicists in charge get away with programming the most inefficient models possible and then the administration simply replies "oh I guess we'll need a bigger supercomputer"

It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually. The increases of compute power have been used for twin goals of reducing simulation time (letting you run more simulations) and to increase the size and resolution. The alternative is to literally build and detonate a bomb to get empirical data on given design, which might have problems with replicability (important when applying the results to r…

> It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually.

Citation needed.

1 gram of Uranium 235 contains 2e21 atoms, which would take 15 minutes for this supercomputer to count.

"nuclear bomb simulations" do not need to simulate every atom.

I speculate that there will be some simulations at the subatomic scale, and they will be used to inform other simulations of larger quantities at lower resolutions.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=atoms+in+1+gram+of+uran...

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#55
post #27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually. The increases of compute power have been used for twin goals of reducing simulation time (letting you run more simulations) and to increase the size and resolution. The alternative is to literally build and detonate a bomb to get empirical data on given design, which might have problems with replicability (important when applying the results to r…

Are they always designing new nuclear bombs? Why the ongoing work to simulate?

Basically yes, we are always designing new nuclear bombs. This isn't done to increase yield, we've actually been moving towards lower yield nuclear bombs ever since the mid Cold War. In the 60s the US deployed the B41 bomb with a maximum yield of 25 megatons, making it the most powerful bomb ever deployed by the US. When the B41 was retired in the late 70s, the most powerful bomb in the US arsenal was the B53 with a yield of 9 megatons. The B53 was retired in 2011, leaving the B83 as the most powerful bomb in the US arsenal with a yield of only 1.2 megatons.

There are two kinds of targeting that can be employed in a nuclear war: counterforce and countervalue. Counterforce is targeting enemy military installations, and especially enemy nuclear installations. Countervalue is targeting civilian targets like cities and infrastructure. In an all out nuclear war counterforce targets are saturated with nuclear weapons, with each target receiving multiple strikes to hedge against the risks of weapon failure, weapon interception, and general target survival due to being in a fortified underground positions. Any weapons that are not needed for counterforce saturation strike countervalue targets. It turns out that having a yield greater than a megaton is basically just overkill for both counterforce and countervalue. If you're striking an underground military target (like a missile silo) protected by air defenses, your odds of destroying that target are higher if you use three one megaton yield weapons than if you use a single 20 megaton yield weapon. If you're striking a countervalue target, the devastation caused by a single nuclear detonation will be catastrophic enough to make optimizing for maximum damage pointless.

Thus, weapons designers started to optimize for things other than yield. Safety is a big one, an American nuclear weapon going off on US soil would have far reaching political effects and would likely cause the president to resign. Weapons must fail safely when the bomber carrying them bursts into flames on the tarmac, or when the rail carrying the bomb breaks unexpectedly. They must be resilient against both operator error and malicious sabotage. Oh, and none of these safety considerations are allowed to get in the way of the weapon detonating when it is supposed to. This is really hard to get right!

Another consideration is cost. Nuclear weapons are expensive to make, so a design that can get a high yield out of a small amount of fissile material is preferred. Maintenance, and the cost of maintenance, is also relevant. Will the weapon still work in 30 years, and how much money is required to ensure that?

The final consideration is flexibility and effectiveness. Using a megaton yield weapon on the battlefield to destroy enemy troop concentrations is not a viable tactic because your own troops would likely get caught in the strike. But lower yield weapons suitable for battlefield use (often referred to as tactical nuclear weapons) aren't useful for striking counterforce targets like missile silos. Thus, modern weapon designs are variable yield. The B83 mentioned above can be configured to detonate with a yield in the low kilotons, or up to 1.2 megatons. Thus a single B83 weapon in the US arsenal can cover multiple continencies, making it cheaper and more effective than maintaining a larger arsenal of single yield weapons. This is in addition to special purpose weapons designed to penetrate underground bunkers or destroy satellites via EMP, which have their own design considerations.

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because of the way the weapons are designed, which requires a CNWDI clearance to know, so your curiosity is not likely to be sated.

> It's because of the way the weapons are designed, which requires a CNWDI clearance to know, so your curiosity is not likely to be sated. While that's true, the information that is online is surprisingly detailed. For example, this series "Nuclear 101: How Nuclear Bombs Work" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVhQOhxb1Mc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnW7DxsJth0

Having once had said clearance limits my answers.

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#57
post #42

Some may not want to hear this, but these “fastest supercomputer” list is now meaningless because all the Chinese labs have started obfuscating their progress. A while ago there were a few labs in China in top 10 and they all attracted sanctions / bad attention. Now no Chinese lab report any data now

I doubt the US Government is telling everyone about their fastest computer.

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#58
post #54
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually. The increases of compute power have been used for twin goals of reducing simulation time (letting you run more simulations) and to increase the size and resolution. The alternative is to literally build and detonate a bomb to get empirical data on given design, which might have problems with replicability (important when applying the results to r…

> It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually. Citation needed. 1 gram of Uranium 235 contains 2e21 atoms, which would take 15 minutes for this supercomputer to count. "nuclear bomb simulations" do not need to simulate every atom. I speculate that there will be some simulations at the subatomic scale, and they will be used to inform other simulations of larger quantities at lower resolution…

Subatomic scale is the perfect option, but we tend to not have time for that, so we sample and average and do other things. At least that's the situation within aerospace's hunger for CFD, I figure nuclear has similar approaches.

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#59
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Though the performance of El Capitain is only measured by a linpack benchmark not the actual application.

I thought modern supercomputers use benchmarks like HPCG instead of LINPACK?

The top 500 includes both. There is no HPCG result for El Capitan yet:

https://top500.org/lists/hpcg/2024/11/

Re: El Capitan: New supercomputer is the fastest

#60
post #58
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It literally requires simulating each subatomic particle, individually. Citation needed. 1 gram of Uranium 235 contains 2e21 atoms, which would take 15 minutes for this supercomputer to count. "nuclear bomb simulations" do not need to simulate every atom. I speculate that there will be some simulations at the subatomic scale, and they will be used to inform other simulations of larger quantities at lower resolution…

Subatomic scale is the perfect option, but we tend to not have time for that, so we sample and average and do other things. At least that's the situation within aerospace's hunger for CFD, I figure nuclear has similar approaches.

I would like a citation for anyone in aerospace using (or even realistically proposing) subatomic fluid dynamics.
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