The withering dream of a cheap American electric car • Hacker News Board

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#341

Post by kjksf » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:06 PM UTC

JohnFen wrote: post #190

cottsak wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand where this thinking comes from. It's not based in fact. These Tesla batteries degrade very slowly. And so if in 5 years you've lost 15% of the range, it still gets you anywhere you need to go including road trips with all of the Superchargers!? "totals the vehicle" is just nonsense and I wish more people understood the reality.

> I don't understand where this thinking comes from. My observations, which certainly don't reflect the current state of the tech (although if I'm buying a used EV, I'm not buying the current tech). But that's my bias nonetheless. I do think I overemphasized this, though, because while this is what makes me shy away from the idea of used EVs, it's not the reason why I avoid buying cars that are too new (which include…

It's not an observation because it's not something that you've observed.

Here's the truth based on an observation: Tesla's battery capacity degrades 12% after 200k miles. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/664106/tesla-battery-capacity-deg...

200k miles is effectively the lifetime of a car. Average US person drives 10k miles so that's 20 years of driving.

Tesla's warranty "guarantee at least 70 percent retention of battery capacity over 8 years and 100,000 miles or more". Source: https://www.motortrend.com/features/tesla-battery-warranty/

And latest chemistries are even better. In 2020 Jeff Dahn (who leads battery research group in Canada funded by Tesla) published a paper about million mile battery. Source: https://www.electrochem.org/dahn-unveils-million-mile-batter...

Since Tesla funds Dahn's research, they get the IP. This is just in the lab but those advancements are trickling, over time, to Tesla's battery making (and not just Tesla: every battery maker does research to make batteries cheaper and last longer).

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#342

Post by jillesvangurp » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:06 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #3

bartvk wrote: post #2

https://archive.ph/9oIT4 I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ That's a nitpick though. All in all,…

> the EV car market is lacking demand There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

It's actually growing at around 20% year on year, this year. World wide. The EU is the exception. Mostly because Germany is struggling. Everywhere else, EVs are growing pretty nicely.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#343

Post by klooney » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:06 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #242

latentcall wrote: post #227

I would love a 10-15K BYD. I was told recently desiring a BYD is un-American when I can spend 3 times the price on a Tesla. No thanks! I’ll hold out for something truly cheap. Cars in America are insanely priced.

Funny thing is that Musk himself said the “Shanghai built Tesla's are the best quality Tesla's” and he’s fully leaning into Chinese manufacturing. I suspect what will happen is that cheap Chinese imports will come into the USA but only for select manufacturers who benefit the current administration. So no cheap byd’s but possibly cheap Tesla’s.

You puff up the local market when you're giving a speech in that market.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#344

Post by ghaff » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:07 PM UTC

slices wrote: post #213

lumost wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PHEV means two drive trains, more parts and in turn more weight. Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge in 30 minutes?

Since 90% of my car trips are under 30 minutes, yes that would be worthwhile. The other 10% are beyond any practical battery range, so a BEV isn't an option.

I think you exaggerate about BEVs. I have a friend of mine who has a Boston condo and commutes with his Tesla to his house in Northern Vermont most weekends. I think he charges once along the way and then at home on both ends. That said I'm going to Maine next week and I would certainly have to track down convenient and reliable chargers. And there would probably be some trips--even in the Northeast--where they wouldn't be practical.

(I on the other hand drive into a city about 60+ minutes away so I don't know what the percentage is but I do a fair number of trips an hour+ away.)

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#345

Post by klooney » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:07 PM UTC

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #280

solardev wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of America doesn't want to support the incoming administration either, and Musk has decided to closely and personally align himself with it. I wonder if that will affect Tesla sales.

I kinda think the whole thing is just Elon tricking republicans into buying electric cars.

Which is good, we don't want electric cars to become a culture war issue

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#346

Post by scottyah » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:08 PM UTC

larkost wrote: post #310

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I kinda think the whole thing is just Elon tricking republicans into buying electric cars.

[flagged]

There's also the closing of his factory by the lady that didn't like him during covid, the Biden administration's decision to never mention Tesla, instead proclaiming that manufacturers like GM were making America Electric (Tesla sold way more electric cars, and they are much more American).

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#347

Post by casey2 » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:11 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #243

latentcall wrote: post #227

I would love a 10-15K BYD. I was told recently desiring a BYD is un-American when I can spend 3 times the price on a Tesla. No thanks! I’ll hold out for something truly cheap. Cars in America are insanely priced.

Protecting local manufacturers from cheap offshore labor is rational, especially if the offshore products are being subsidized specifically to undermine incumbents and put them out of business. I get that individual consumers want the cheapest trinket they can find, but the gov't has to be more strategic. And every country does this, including the one that would be the source of these trinkets.

What is a "local manufacturer" some other multinational corporation? At least think about your bullshit propaganda before you repeat it.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#348

Post by MetaWhirledPeas » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:11 PM UTC

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #280

solardev wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of America doesn't want to support the incoming administration either, and Musk has decided to closely and personally align himself with it. I wonder if that will affect Tesla sales.

I kinda think the whole thing is just Elon tricking republicans into buying electric cars.

I think there are a lot of little reasons all combined, and that is definitely one of them.

- Heavy criticism over the past 6 years from traditional news sources (even tech sources like Ars Technica)... basically ever since the Tham Luang cave rescue*

- Thick hate from people in the comments sections

- Government agencies interfering with SpaceX and Tesla

- Biden administration ignoring his carbon tax suggestion

- Biden administration snubbing Tesla at the EV Summit

- His family transgender drama

- COVID mandates shutting down his manufacturing for a period of time

- Conservatives not buying EVs

If you look at all his points of friction in recent years it's not much of a surprise to see the transformation.

*The cave rescue was a sad turning point for Musk. He endured excessive ridicule for pushing for a technological solution, then really stepped in it with his bitter accusations against that rescue diver.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#349

Post by klooney » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:11 PM UTC

darknavi wrote: post #197

rsynnott wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at what's available in Ireland at the moment, in the 20-30k range there's a Nissan, a VW (though it's the ancient e-Up, due to be replaced by the i2 any day now), a BYD, a Fiat, an MG, and an Ora (tragically no longer under the names "Good Cat", or "Funky Cat", presumably because Ora got around to hiring someone who had heard of marketing). There are a bunch more in this price range due to launch next year. C…

> Cheap-ish electric cars exist, they're just not, generally, suited to US consumer preferences. Some of the brands you listed aren't even really available in the US, or if they are that are 100% marked up with tariffs. Big cars are definitely a thing in the US, but I'd kill for a ~$20k smaller EV hatch commuter to swap out my Model 3.

The small hatch EVs have generally had ~200 mile ranges, which is a little tough

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#350

Post by vundercind » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 5:11 PM UTC

warner25 wrote: post #335

vundercind wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MSRP in 2010 (first I could easily find from around the same period—this was a couple years later) for the worst Chevy Aveo was under $5,000, and MSRP was rather more aspirational (bullshitty) then than it seems to be now, as far as what cars actually sell for. This wasn't even that big a mark-down from MSRP.

I don't think so... I vividly remember Nissan running commercials for the Versa in late 2008 during the darkest depths of the recession because it was one of the last models selling in the US for under $10k (like $9,990 if you got the manual transmission, etc.). There was also the Smart Fortwo, but it was a two-seater. This page from KBB says that the 2008 Chevy Aveo "had a starting MSRP of $10,610 when new." https:/…

Oh weird, maybe my source was fucked then. I did find it generally hard to find any reliable-seeming info about historical car MSRPs, which seems... odd? It's strange the ways the Web fails to provide certain information (or rather, in this case, I expect it's the way modern search engines fail to surface the information we're looking for).

I bought my only-ever (and probably last-ever, as I can't stomach the prices now) new car as a 2012 Nissan Sentra, and I think it was around $14k and was definitely a way, way better car than the infamous Chevy Aveo (and a big step up from the Versa in size, power, et c., for that matter).