The withering dream of a cheap American electric car • Hacker News Board

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#281

Post by vel0city » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:39 PM UTC

torginus wrote: post #265

bartvk wrote: post #2

https://archive.ph/9oIT4 I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ That's a nitpick though. All in all,…

I honestly don't get it - the median income in the US is like $35k - assuming people don't want to drive vehicles older than a decade, do people really spend a sixth of their total income on cars? In Europe the numbers are even worse. I'm fairly convinced only rich people and businesses buy new cars

Median incomes of single earners get pretty skewed from people willingly working part-time or low-income jobs as secondary income instead of primary income. I usually prefer analyzing things on household income for this reason. Think a grandpa working a part-time gig as a greeter at Walmart while going back to a multi-generational household or a stay-at-home parent working a part-time remote call center job while the kids are in school or a teenager working a part-time job. All of these positions would pull pretty small amounts of overall yearly income but chances are they're not the sole source of wealth/income they have access to.

The median household income is ~$75k. There's ~131M households in the US. This means there are 65M households making more than $75k/yr.

But yes, generally speaking wealthier people are the ones buying new cars with a lot of people buying used models.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#282

Post by mrguyorama » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:39 PM UTC

WorldMaker wrote: post #120

bryanlarsen wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're never going to a hybrid under $25,000. Pretty much everywhere but the US has the option of getting an electric car for under $25,000 from BYD or Renault. I've done over 20,000 km in road trips in an EV. You charge while you're eating or toileting or sleeping, it doesn't affect my trips.

> Pretty much everywhere but the US has the option of getting an electric car for under $25,000 from BYD or Renault. The US is afraid of competition in the automotive industry and the current import tariffs and taxes on cars are a bit of an elephant in the room here, too.

BYD just has to do the same thing Toyota did, build a plant in Mexico and use NAFTA to sell well made cars for dirt cheap.

I'm not yet convinced that BYD cars ARE well made yet though. When Hyundai had a similar amount of mistrust from American consumers, they improved their standing by offering a very compelling warranty, 100k miles or 10 years. The problem is I don't know if I can trust BYD the COMPANY that much.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#283

Post by cosmic_cheese » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:40 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #249

cosmic_cheese wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Midrange-to-expensive EVs have been around for long enough that pretty much everybody in those market segments who are currently interested have already bought one. Additionally, the segment has been flooded with midsize SUVs, with the odd midsize sedan — variety is sorely lacking. Between these two, quite a considerable market is being left unaddressed. The first to fill these niches with affordable models that…

My aunt and uncle have a couple of Teslas (at different homes, I think). We have one as well. They're looking at replacing one with another EV, so she was probing me for options, and then also said "I can't help but notice your recent vehicle purchases have not been EVs. Hmm.." I don't get it. We already have an EV. Why would I buy more EVs? The one that gets commuted in every day is already in our driveway. It alrea…

I hear you on the lack of diversification in models available.

I’d really love to see an EV that’s in line with the virtues of the Honda Fit, Honda Element, and Toyota Matrix — not sexy or fancy, but cheap, insanely practical little “everything cars” that can take on anything you throw at them with tons of cargo space, fold flat seating, stock roof rack, etc — cars that are made for doing things instead of impressing the neighbor or acting as a status symbol.

There’s absolutely nothing like this in the EV space right now. The closest thing that’s upcoming is Rivian’s R3, which isn’t likely to be as cheap as the Fit/Element/Matrix were.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#284

Post by nytesky » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:40 PM UTC

newyankee wrote: post #250

rootusrootus wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Protecting local manufacturers from cheap offshore labor is rational, especially if the offshore products are being subsidized specifically to undermine incumbents and put them out of business. I get that individual consumers want the cheapest trinket they can find, but the gov't has to be more strategic. And every country does this, including the one that would be the source of these trinkets.

Subsidy cannot work beyond a certain scale. Sure they may have benefitted initially, but in the long run I presume they need some kind of profits to sustain. May be the lead in Chinese EV and battery industries is not purely technological, it is also the supply chain and scale developed over the years. All this talk assumes that USA or Western countries have always had a level playing field whereas companies like Boe…

No, they do not need long term profits to sustain, at least in certain regimes.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#285

Post by solardev » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:40 PM UTC

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #280

solardev wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of America doesn't want to support the incoming administration either, and Musk has decided to closely and personally align himself with it. I wonder if that will affect Tesla sales.

I kinda think the whole thing is just Elon tricking republicans into buying electric cars.

Masterful move right there. Maybe he can trick them all into going to Mars next? They don't call it the Red Planet for nuthin.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#286

Post by NelsonMinar » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:41 PM UTC

JKCalhoun wrote: post #176

> The cheapest car Tesla currently sells in the U.S. starts at around $43,000—or $35,500 with a federal tax credit of $7,500. Curious if anyone knows — do people actually drive off the lot with a Tesla for $35,500?

The soon-to-be-dismantled federal tax credit of $7500.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#287

Post by solardev » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:41 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #273

solardev wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does your state pay you retail for your production? And have you gotten your first annual true up bill yet? That setup is a dream for a lot of people, but it's not always easy to make happen depending on state regulations (and how powerful the utilities there are)...

> I have an off grid home Seems like the utilities aren't involved at all? Cheap storage actually makes grid defection a possibility for a ton of people these days. Especially when you start considering the cost of upgrading 100 amp service to 200 amp or similar. Once you've added a bit of battery, might as well go a bit more, and use your vehicle for additional backup when necessary. People having 70kWh or more of m…

Haha sorry! I totally missed that important sentence. Thanks for pointing it out.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#288

Post by downrightmike » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:41 PM UTC

latentcall wrote: post #227

I would love a 10-15K BYD. I was told recently desiring a BYD is un-American when I can spend 3 times the price on a Tesla. No thanks! I’ll hold out for something truly cheap. Cars in America are insanely priced.

The only difference between the vast majority of cars "Made in the USA" is the scant margin that allows manufacturers to use that mark. Most cars are made outside the USA. So, as far as I'm concerned, they are all basically un-American. That's beside from the point that Tesla is being run by a Nazi.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#289

Post by elashri » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:41 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #257

newyankee wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subsidy cannot work beyond a certain scale. Sure they may have benefitted initially, but in the long run I presume they need some kind of profits to sustain. May be the lead in Chinese EV and battery industries is not purely technological, it is also the supply chain and scale developed over the years. All this talk assumes that USA or Western countries have always had a level playing field whereas companies like Boe…

> All this talk assumes that USA or Western countries have always had a level playing field whereas companies like Boeing or Airbus are prime counter examples As I said, every country does it. It is rational to protect your own manufacturing industry. China does it. We do it. European countries do it. Just because we protect our own industry does not mean we have to protect China's interests too. That's their problem…

The problem is that the US is complaining a lot about that when it is the other countries doing that. Even here, average commentator will call it a foul (whataboittism) if you point out that.

You can't eat the cake and have it. Either you follow the fair trade requirements or don't complain about others not doing the same. If you say standards, then follow by lead and respect them.

Also I do not think every country does that. There are too much pressure by the US, China and EU on these countries to prevent many from doing that.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#290

Post by torginus » Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 4:42 PM UTC

latentcall wrote: post #227

I would love a 10-15K BYD. I was told recently desiring a BYD is un-American when I can spend 3 times the price on a Tesla. No thanks! I’ll hold out for something truly cheap. Cars in America are insanely priced.

Un-American or not, those 10k BYDs reflect Chinese supply chains, labor prices, and market subsidies and cars built to different regulations - turns out if they play the game like other manufacturers do, BYDs aren't actually that much cheaper to make.