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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

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Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#201

Post by gambiting »

lumost wrote: post #162
vundercind wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't make great use of a full EV but would love more AWD PHEV options, of which there are currently few and they're mostly very expensive. A PHEV can be my everything-car that runs entirely on electricity for 90% of trips. I assume there's some reason they're not a more widely-supported option, but damn, I wish they were more common.

PHEV means two drive trains, more parts and in turn more weight. Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge in 30 minutes?

Yes, I've owned one for 4 years now and I genuienly believe this is what all cars should be, it's just such an obvious idea in hindsight it's crazy that this isn't what everyone is pivoting to. I do all of my daily driving on EV power using zero fuel and the car costs me close to nothing to drive(charging nightly on a cheap tariff), and when I need to drive across the continent to visit family I just put in fuel and go, no bother with charging on the way. And on slightly longer drives the entire system improves efficiency a lot - just did a 100 mile drive this weekend to a holiday cottage, averaged 45mpg both ways, and that's in a 2.2 tonne SUV with 400bhp. That's the kind of number you'd see out of a diesel normally.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#202

Post by _huayra_ »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #133
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because demand isn't the issue. The issue is a new car that isn't a budget brand is increasingly a luxury option in the United States, because, and say it with me... Wages have been stagnant in the United States for nearly 50 years. Every economic stat right now points to this as the core issue. Consumers are squeezed more on every last good and service, tons of services are now only available via subscriptions which…

>Wages have been stagnant in the United States for nearly 50 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881500A There simply isn't data to back this up. What you are referring to is capital gains (CEO pay) compared to hourly pay (employee pay), which is a misleading apples to oranges comparison.

> There simply isn't data to back this up.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Your nominal charts are extremely misleading. Real wages have gone up about 10% since the GFC. Is it up? Yeah, but that is quite a tiny amount annually, not even an additional pack of gum.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#203

Post by sowbug »

JohnFen wrote: post #136
matthewdgreen wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of that market is being addressed by used EVs, which are getting much cheaper right now as they age out of new-car-buyers' households. https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/used/tesla

I wouldn't buy a used EV because the battery pack is that much closer to needing to be replaced, which effectively totals the vehicle.

The average car today lasts 12 years, or 200,000 miles, with 300,000 miles possible with luck and good maintenance. Modern EV batteries are designed to last longer than that. Moreover, EV battery capacity loss is nonlinear: most (I've read 80%) of the eventual loss happens in the first couple years.

So if you're looking for a car with the least amount of battery degradation between purchase and EOL, buying a used EV rather than new is actually the better decision.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#204

Post by mandevil »

lumost wrote: post #162
vundercind wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't make great use of a full EV but would love more AWD PHEV options, of which there are currently few and they're mostly very expensive. A PHEV can be my everything-car that runs entirely on electricity for 90% of trips. I assume there's some reason they're not a more widely-supported option, but damn, I wish they were more common.

PHEV means two drive trains, more parts and in turn more weight. Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge in 30 minutes?

I own a PHEV, for almost a year now, as my daily drive. It's not as good a BEV as a true BEV (range is ~20% of one) and it's not as good a HEV as a true HEV (gas mileage on hybrid mode is worse than my in-laws Prius'). But it perfectly fits our current life. We can do all of our normal daily routine (commute/school drop offs) on one charge, and when we head out of town I don't have to worry about it (I live in a Western US state with long drives between population centers- I can get range anxiety just on gasoline as I did not grow up like this). So we've driven it for 18,000 km, and 14,000 of those have been fully electric, just a couple of weekend getaways and one week-long trip around the country have been on gas.

Getting all of that capability in one car is very convenient. We replaced an 11 year old gas vehicle, and I don't expect that this PHEV one will last us as long. But it was the right car for us in our current situation.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#205

Post by deskamess »

preommr wrote: post #31
worik wrote: post #24

The Chinese are going to clean this market up. The British made the same mistake back in the day with motorcycles. "Who cares about the market for 125 cc machines?" they said. The Japanese did, and now they have the market, the British used to have, for luxury and high powered motor cycles. As well as most of the 125cc market

> The Chinese are going to clean this market up. Not if our governments start putting tariffs on everything. I am Canadian, but it also applies to other governments (including the US). The politicians know that it's not going to be easy to do the actual right thing and build up a competitive industry. Instead, it's much easier to just slap some tariffs and make lagging productivity the next generation's problem.

Let's face it, the Canadian reaction is purely out of US friendship. There is no end-to-end EV car manufacturing in Canada. There is an EV battery setup in Ontario (and perhaps Quebec?) but that's about it. We are a decade or more away from having an end-to-end manufacturing pipeline. So... we implement tariffs that hurt the majority of the population? For the govt's lack of investment across decades. If you want to, put a tariff on EV batteries or any other part that is manufactured in Canada - not the whole car. There is no good reason for us to take this tariff.

At the same time, politicians will talk about the dangers of climate change and how we should all try hard to mitigate it. I guess some solutions just don't have the right story to it.

I do agree that the situation we are in now is due to lack of investment in EV/associated tech starting 1.5-2 decades ago. China has invested over 200 billion in EV+Solar and are reaping the rewards.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#206

Post by renewedrebecca »

DaveExeter wrote: post #105

If we wanted a cheap American electric car, the way to do it would be to allow Chinese EV manufacturers to sell to the American public! Of course, that is not allowed, because it would benefit the American people and hurt the American car cartel.

Well, there's also the 4.3 million US autoworkers who'd ultimately be the ones to get shafted.

I don't think we can keep killing off entire industries and expect it to work out in the long run. At some point, what's left? WalMart?

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#207

Post by lutorm »

_huayra_ wrote: post #169
IneffablePigeon wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One could say the same about a combustion engine, really. Battery packs last way, way longer than most people think because they analogise it to phone batteries which are quite different. The resale value of a degraded pack is also going to be higher than most people assume, I think. Unfortunately we have not had plentiful EVs with good battery packs for long enough to show this to the average consumer.

I guess the question comes down to how does one know if the battery pack is good? When I buy a regular used gas car, I can get all sorts of diagnostics about it out of the OBD2 port, pull a spark plug and stick a scope into the combustion chamber to see if there's any issues (e.g. on the walls). With an electric car, how can one tell if the pack has been charged all the way up to 100% all the time (vs. the much bette…

At least on our PHEV, when you read out the battery module state with an OBDII reader, you get to know not only the current estimated capacity but also how much time it's spent at various states of charge, how much time it's spent being charged and discharged at different currents, how much time it's spent at different temperatures, and a completely absurd amount of other diagnostics.

I'd feel a lot better about the state of the battery if I bought one used, rather than the state of the ICE. It's possible to borescope it, but you have no way of telling how long the previous owner went between oil changes, if they flogged it out to redline regularly, etc.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#209

Post by ceejayoz »

015a wrote: post #149
ceejayoz wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> its worth pointing out that Tesla also said that more affordable options will be available in 2025H1 Sure, but they've been saying full self driving is "next year" for a decade in a row. I take that with a large grain of salt. https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne...

Absolutely; but it is at least indicative of the direction Tesla is taking. It might be the end of 2025, 2026, whenever; but they've said they're working on lower cost models. That's all I'm asserting.

It's still the company that trots out humans in spandex to simulate robots and a self-driving taxi that was actually remotely operated by a guy on his phone.

I'll believe in the cheap Tesla when it arrives.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#210

Post by eschneider »

AgentOrange1234 wrote: post #9
bartvk wrote: post #2

https://archive.ph/9oIT4 I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ That's a nitpick though. All in all,…

If even ICE cars are now super expensive, why isn’t this a screaming opportunity for some auto manufacturer to target the low end of the market? I’ve never spent more than 20k for a car. With prices like this, I’m just going to keep my old one as long as I can.

Low price normally requires lower margins, so for the same risk, you're making less money than with a higher end model. Make it up in volume, you say? Well, that increases the risk that you don't sell enough and end up with a loss.

Ultimately, you CAN "win" by doing really well with a low-end model, but the chance of losing big is there, too.

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