171–180 of 241 posts
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It is 2024... how are people still credulously using DiscloseTV as a source? It's not about political inclination but rather that there's no reason to keep trusting a source that has lied repeatedly, sensationalized repeatedly, and seems to have a very loose relationship with being "journalism" rather than entertainment (bait).
Its 2024, Donald trump is president elect backed by "geniuses" of silicon valley
> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
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Nixon is the typical example of somebody pardon'd without an indictment. Like it would be wise to imply it could happen because it has! There are a other trivial examples. Confederate solders weren't indicted [1]. The Vietnam draft dodging pardons didn't even name people [2] [3]. Why they would do it? I mean to nullify the 5th amendment right. Maybe you want to prosecute a crime boss so you give somebody a pardon (or…
Sorry, those are your examples? Besides the Nixon disaster (stop hiding behind that) and confederate soldiers, any other examples?
Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble
Can someone explain to me how this is? It's a company HQ'd in New York, but it's not allowed to do business in the very country it's HQ'd in? What am I missing?
I still don't understand the Polymarket business model. Why take the legal risk of $3 billion in volume as an unlicensed commodities exchange if you're not even going to get paid for it? 1% would be $30,000,000!
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The CEO or the company can only be in trouble if they are found guilty in court. That's not going to happen in the next two months, and Trump probably couldn't care less about this.
Trump not caring will mean the case proceeds. Why would they drop it?
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I’m willing to let the government make their case, but let’s not pretend that a 6am raid from the feds is better than getting arrested.
A 6am raid from the feds is better than getting arrested. It is.
Compare that to an arrest warrant where you willfully turn yourself in.
I still don't understand the Polymarket business model. Why take the legal risk of $3 billion in volume as an unlicensed commodities exchange if you're not even going to get paid for it? 1% would be $30,000,000!
Idealism, probably. The objective of prediction markets is to improve the collective cognitive capacity of humankind (see Earthweb for a science-fiction exposition of this by way of a rather heavy-handed plot device). Certain people are willing to take great risks to achieve things like that, maybe including Coplan, who I'm not personally acquainted with. See Alex Tabarrok's triumphant take from before the raid: http…
About a decade ago I was told by someone on GOOG's anti-spam team that they had thought they'd finally made it too costly to spam, only to discover that political spammers just didn't care how much it cost.
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> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P
These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.