131–140 of 241 posts
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These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.
I am not sure what that has to do with calling elections. The Associated Press calls who wins, not some random person with $5 to throw away.
As a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability). I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID a…
When these sorts of things get in the cross-hairs of the government, it's often not so much "laws against" but rather the lack of laws / regulation. We have seen this with Poker, Crypto, Crypto Exchanges, the lost goes on. If you're operating at the edge, you probably need to be working closely with someone to make damn sure the laws are covering your ass. Or that the laws can be created / changed for the new industr…
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> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P
These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.
Very tricky.
I would be interested in a blog post explaining it.
The classical fallacy is attributing skill to someone who has successfully predicted 10 coin flips (or market trends) in a row, ignoring the fact that there were many other people making different predictions and there was always going to be one of them who was successful.
Can we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
I presume you also feel strongly that people should call health/life/car/homeowners insurance "gambling?" Because insurance is quite literally a prediction market. Not trying to be snarky, I know certain religions actually do consider insurance to be gambling.
>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?
“Political retribution by the outgoing administration” = “I’m the enemy of your enemy”. “Correctly called the 2024 presidential election” = “I’m flattering you on your glorious victory over our shared foe, now hook a brother up.”
He’ll get pardoned. It’s a Thiel company.
Maybe he shouldn’t have been arrested in the first place?
Innocent until proven guilty is a cornerstone of our civilization. We should not shame anyone who has been searched or arrested by the police.
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Kalshi got the goahead from an appeals court to list election bets. I think Robinhood added election bets soonafter. Is there a reason that wouldn't apply to Polymarket? Granted, Polymarket was operating before that ruling. https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-rulin...
The Wall Street Journal version of the OP article seems to indicate that the ruling did not apply to Polymarker due to it’s settlement with the CFTC in 2022 - but the language used is a little unclear: > Polymarket has blocked access to Americans since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform. Traders…
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https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1856841521334816928 they are investigating Polymarket itself
It is 2024... how are people still credulously using DiscloseTV as a source? It's not about political inclination but rather that there's no reason to keep trusting a source that has lied repeatedly, sensationalized repeatedly, and seems to have a very loose relationship with being "journalism" rather than entertainment (bait).
If this were aimed at Polymarket and their betting activities, then their lawyers would be getting subpoenas and the like, and a raid on their president would most likely be in concert with raids on their offices. AFAICT, it was only his person targeted. That the FBI raided the home of an individual most likely means a criminal investigation of that person, for a federal crime or a crime that crosses state boundaries…
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> First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricultural scientists and advisors in the former Soviet Union collective farming administration.
> Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. Examples are many of the administrators in the education system, many professors of education, many teachers union officials, much of the NASA headquarters staff, etc.
> The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.
I have no idea why your comment was killed, I resurrected it. Apparently people don't want to confront reality.
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https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1856841521334816928 they are investigating Polymarket itself
It is 2024... how are people still credulously using DiscloseTV as a source? It's not about political inclination but rather that there's no reason to keep trusting a source that has lied repeatedly, sensationalized repeatedly, and seems to have a very loose relationship with being "journalism" rather than entertainment (bait).