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How the Rich Got Rich

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Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#71
post #11

The huge amount that comes from capital gains got me thinking... why is the return on capital, versus say the return on labor, so high? Our society is awash with capital. We apparently have more of it than we know what to do with (see, e.g., the real estate bubble, the tech bubble). If the capital markets were efficient, shouldn't supply and demand equilibrate things to drive down the price of capital? I think the st…

Our society is awash with capital, but would you invest $4000 in exchange for 2% of some kid's "company" (unincorporated) for him to lease more hardware to complete his mission with the project? Of course not. "I'd need to hear a lot more" is the response here. There isn't "a lot more" (powerpoints, prospectus, business plan, market research, social proof, etc) unless the kid starts producing it - instead of working on his project.

If he chooses coding his project versus producing bullshit for you, the same kid has to go work at a grocery store or something and do some coding in his spare time. If he were serious about raising money, on the other hand, he basically couldn't work on his project at all while he does. Which is the same as raising money with no idea.

It's awash with money, but not to the people who have any immediate use for it to generate return. You will invest in a kid's powerpoint, his "team", his business "plan", no code, no project, but you wouldn't invest in a project, no powerpoint.

So "our society is awash with capital" to whoever learns to say the right things to get it - which is pretty much the opposite skill of doing something that actually requires any.

Hence the importance of "super-angels", who go against this grain, who will invest in and mentor the kid while letting him actually code instead of making him refine bullshit instead!

Every day we hear of teams who have raised $50-$200k, where neither of the cofounders is capable of producing anything but bullshit. They literally can't make anything. When was the last time you heard of a kid who made a project and scaled it by continuing to work on it instead of learning to spew bullshit?

Honestly, there is almost no money for anyone who is working on something, unless they quadruple their investment of time and personal risk to bring the project failure rate up to 95% as they jeapordize working on it it in order to 'raise money' instead. Our society - and, specifically - you, reward people who say what you want to hear to get money, and finding out what you want to hear takes a lot of time and has nothing to do with working on anything else.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#72
post #11

The huge amount that comes from capital gains got me thinking... why is the return on capital, versus say the return on labor, so high? Our society is awash with capital. We apparently have more of it than we know what to do with (see, e.g., the real estate bubble, the tech bubble). If the capital markets were efficient, shouldn't supply and demand equilibrate things to drive down the price of capital? I think the st…

It could have something to do with what we mean by "value". Apparently Marx derived his thinking from an assumption that value of something is more or less proportional to the amount of labor put into producing it [1]. What he missed is that if you're putting labor into making something nobody wants (the classic example being toothless combs for bald men), you are not only failing to producing any value, you're argua…

An extreme example does not disprove the whole theory. The people inventing stuff are usually the enterprenours who have the means of production and labour in their own hands.

Most people employed produce things which are valuable. Most things produced are valuable.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#74
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"extremely connected people who have lots of Proprety (sic) and little Energy/talent." It takes energy and talent to maintain connections. Money also helps [1]. With the exception of perhaps some outliers having a connection does little other than give you an audience and the ear of the person who might be able to do something for you. And in order to maintain that connection you have to be in their face and provide…

Most people have a number of small-c connections of varying strength. That's not what I'm talking about. On the other end, there's Connections, which most people don't have. Small-c connections require energy to maintain. They can dry up. Big-C Connections don't, unless you fall into disgrace to a degree that very few powerful people ever will. Big-C Connections mean that people will go out of their way to help you o…

"If you think otherwise about that set of people, you don't really know them."

I don't disagree with that at all and I've experienced that behavior.

For me personally I'm happy with what I've achieved and how I am mainly responsible for it and that it wasn't handed to me. I did have advantages of course (I didn't grow up in the projects for example and had parents who were middle class) and I don't think I would be happy if I didn't have to work hard for what I have achieved. (No desire to marry rich or anything like that.)

Not saying you are "whining" by saying this but I don't feel there is anything productive about whining about the advantage that others have. It's a given like memory and hard disk space. Just do the best you can to your benefit given the game and any unfairness. After you achieve your goals you can work toward changing society if you want.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#75
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've come to the conclusion that there are two essential commodities in any society. One is Property-- land, financial capital, social connections, reputation. The other is Energy-- talent, ambition, willingness to work hard, vision. Most social and class tensions are centered on the exchange rate between these two, which has historically favored Property except in times of crisis. The reason societies have typically…

Being pro property, primarily in the form of land, in the US is linked to virtue. A republic eventually is founded on the virtue of its citizens, not laws or paper. So property owners, as steak holders in society, are thought to be better behaved. Yeoman farmers are independent and self sufficient which makes them less likely to be manipulated into abusing power. Moving towards a manufacturing/finance society changed…

Being pro property, primarily in the form of land, in the US is linked to virtue.

The US is a post-apocalpytic nation. Literally. The indigenous people and cultures were so badly wiped out by a variety of factors (some with European fault, some without) as to leave a sense of an untamed wilderness (actually, there were probably advanced agrarian societies over every inch of the US at one time) and an abundance of land. I think much of the appeal of zombie/apocalyptic fiction in the US comes from a longing for a future (like our semi-imaginary past) of open land.

When land was (or seemed) effectively free, the "obviously virtuous", positive-sum thing to do was to find unused land and bring it into productivity-- rather than to squabble for allocation of an existing resource as people did in the cities. Hence the association of the rural frontier with positive-sum virtue and urbanity (and Europe, at that time) with zero-sum congestion. So more specifically, it was a rural style of land ownership (in "new" land) that was associated with virtue.

Of course, the frontier closed, and over time we became urban (suburbia is extremely-low-density and often dismal urbanity) like everyone else.

Land doesn't matter as much as it did, except in major cities. A landed gentry has been replaced by an educated (sometimes in name only) and connected one, and urban land is only worth so much on account of the people it is (implicitly through locality) connected to. That's why Manhattan and Silicon Valley real estate are so ungodly expensive: because ambitious, smart people move there, so they're good places to set up a business and tap local talent. We are the reason for the value that justifies the price, and for thanks, we get royally fucked-over by the landlords for it.

I have no issue with small-time landowners and the notion of owning one's own home, and any land reform policy that I'd support would have to have an exemption (around $500,000 seems reasonable) under which it doesn't apply. However, I definitely don't think the association of land ownership with virtuous stewardship applies to large-scale urban housing ownership. It's classic medieval rent-seeking, nothing more.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#76
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're mixing wealth and income.

No, he is saying that $1B in wealth (about 400 people) generates $77m (threshold to make list of highest earners) in income assuming a 7.7% rate of return (which seems unrealistically high to me).

Actually, I'm saying that if the 200+ Americans with >$2 billion in wealth consistently generated more than 4% return on capital, then at least 50% of the top 400 earners should stay relatively the same year after year (since those with >$2 billion usually stay billionaires). The fact that only 27% have appeared more than once suggests that those with more than $2 billion in net worth are reporting returns less than 4%.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#77
Here's the IRS pub that's the basis for the article: The 400 Individual Income Tax Returns Reporting the Largest Adjusted Gross Incomes Each Year, 1992-2009 http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/09intop400.pdf

The Tax Foundations take (http://taxfoundation.org/article/fortunate-400) is a little different. Interesting that in the 18 years that the report covers none of the taxpayers were on the top 400 list for all years. & only 4 (1%) were on the list for 17 years. 73% were on the list for just 1 year.... Their take was that most folks were on the list due to one time event...sale of assets, etc

Also wages were flat for all 17 years (as a % of total income). Partnership & S Corp income was up ~400%, which could be because of the growth in publicly traded partnerships.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#78
post #69
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are ~400 Americans with > $1 billion in wealth, and 200 with >$2 billion. $77 million in return on $1 billion is 7.7%. On $2 billion it's a mere 3.85%. Combined with the fact that only 27% appear more than once in the IRS's list, and the fact that people tend to stay billionaires for a long time, this suggests that once people get to this level of wealth they turn down the aggressiveness of their investing and…

The important thing to remember is that AGI (which the article discusses) and how much money you "make" are not very correlated once you make above, say, 200K a year. A key reason is unrealized capital gains - I guarantee you that if a billionaire makes $77 million, most of that isn't going to appear as AGI. In a sense, realizing capital gains means something went wrong, not to mention income which is very wrong. Oth…

Thank you. Good point.

This also serves to demonstrate the artificiality and awkwardness of taxing capital gains v.s. simply taxing wealth directly.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could have something to do with what we mean by "value". Apparently Marx derived his thinking from an assumption that value of something is more or less proportional to the amount of labor put into producing it [1]. What he missed is that if you're putting labor into making something nobody wants (the classic example being toothless combs for bald men), you are not only failing to producing any value, you're argua…

An extreme example does not disprove the whole theory. The people inventing stuff are usually the enterprenours who have the means of production and labour in their own hands. Most people employed produce things which are valuable. Most things produced are valuable.

> Most people employed produce things which are valuable. Most things produced are valuable.

Sure, but my point was that, at its basic, value can be thought of as the following function:

    Val(demand, supply) = const * demand / supply.
Only the second parameter (supply) is a function of labor (the higher the labor cost, the more difficult it is to produce a large quantity of something) and a few other things (for example, availability of materials necessary for production, availability of process, etc). So value is only a partial function of labor. This is both good and bad, the good part being is that it is possible to generate large amount of value with relatively little labor.

Another point is that by "labor" we usually mean either physical labor or time spent, not mental effort exerted. If we add the mental effort exerted (multiplied by intelligence of the knowledge worker) to the definition of value, we will see a closer relationship between labor and value.

Something you spend a lot of time working on may have a lot of value to you (as in: it aided development of your skills, for example), but it doesn't mean that it will have a lot of value to everyone else. We ought not to mistake what we value with what an average individual from a large group of people values.

This has an important consequence. If you're smart, you ought to position yourself where you can have a lot of leverage. That would be somewhere away from being a labor provider and closer to being one who makes decisions on the basis of demand and supply. Also, you can have a lot of leverage if you're willing to incur risk. Labor providers usually don't incur a lot of risk (in worst case, they get nothing). In entrepreneurship, on the other hand, risk can mean losing a lot of money. By moving towards making demand/supply decisions and by willing to incur risk, you can generate not only more value for yourself, but more overall value, since in voluntary transactions both sides benefit.

Re: How the Rich Got Rich

#80
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people have a number of small-c connections of varying strength. That's not what I'm talking about. On the other end, there's Connections, which most people don't have. Small-c connections require energy to maintain. They can dry up. Big-C Connections don't, unless you fall into disgrace to a degree that very few powerful people ever will. Big-C Connections mean that people will go out of their way to help you o…

"If you think otherwise about that set of people, you don't really know them." I don't disagree with that at all and I've experienced that behavior. For me personally I'm happy with what I've achieved and how I am mainly responsible for it and that it wasn't handed to me. I did have advantages of course (I didn't grow up in the projects for example and had parents who were middle class) and I don't think I would be h…

'After you achieve your goals you can work toward changing society'

Surely the most noble of goals is to change society for the better.

Regarding 'whining' I think it's important to have awareness of the different advantages and disadvantages people can have because government policy is directly influenced by awareness of these type of disadvantages.

* Disability

* Poverty

* Parents

* Surroundings

* Connections

The world is really complex but possibly we are going to be in a situation in the next few decades where society can look at really complicated problems and figure out really complicated solutions.

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