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Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

passingtime.substack.com

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Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#291

Post by the_optimist »

astrange wrote: post #126
the_optimist wrote: post #96

Leading off the article with Yglesias shows the guy has little idea what he’s proposing to discuss. Imports can reduce GDP because the import is imported and not domestically produced. The formula identifies specifically: that which is consumed domestically but not produced domestically is not part of domestic production. There is no inconsistency here at all with revised trade policy increasing GDP. It should be tot…

Imports don't /reduce/ GDP. They don't affect GDP because they are not produced domestically. What you're proposing is import substitution (tariffs), which is bad because 1. domestically imported goods can have imported inputs. 2. reduced competition from the external good means the internal ones will be worse. > It should be totally obvious and intuitive that if the same good is consumed domestically, producing it d…

“Bad” is merely the inverse of the characterization you seek to avoid. There is no basis for assuming Pareto improvement in offshoring, particularly in an intellectual-property-flat world.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#292

Post by DesiLurker »

coolspot wrote: post #105
FigurativeVoid wrote: post #67

When the pandemic started, I really enjoyed the podcast. They seemed to have some good insights, and I found them funny. It was a vibe that I sorely missed being home alone. If one them sees this, I hope they take it kindly. The podcast has gone downhill drastically. The level of discourse has dropped considerably. They make all sorts of claims with very little evidence. Recently they have all agreed that voter ID la…

Voter ID laws do, in fact, just make sense.

problem is now that the election is over no one will take about voter id anymore. for a large population base the time to do it in good faith is now when you have most chance of uptake. but the way id laws get brought up is basically near the finish line so the only conclusion that can be drawn is they are there to discourage voting by 'undesirable' groups.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#293

Post by bko »

cywick wrote: post #290
bko wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think vibes are underrated. The smart people can easily mislead you because they're smart. So you can cover things up with "official statistics", maliciously or by accident. For instance, inflation is a big one. I remember during the first spike in inflation (2021 I believe), I started nothing prices have gone up between 25-50%. We've been told at the time inflation was something like 7% but that would mean paying…

> I think vibes are underrated. The smart people can easily mislead you because they're smart. So you can cover things up with "official statistics", maliciously or by accident. > For instance, inflation is a big one. I remember during the first spike in inflation (2021 I believe), I started nothing prices have gone up between 25-50%. We've been told at the time inflation was something like 7% but that would mean pay…

My gut tells me that there are literally trillions of dollars tied to the "official" inflation numbers, so there is a huge incentive to nudge them one way or another, not to mention that no politician likes to be blamed for high inflation.

But if you want to get into it, sure. The inflation numbers are not a fixed basket of goods. They take into account elasticity and shifts the basket to weight less expensive items more as inflation goes up.

For instance, suppose you have only two goods, bread and butter. Bread costs $5 and butter costs $10, and suppose the inflation numbers are based off 50% bread and 50% butter. Now suppose both these prices double. What happens to inflation? The naive response is inflation is 100%. But no, the BLS in its infinite wisdom realizes that if butter doubled, you'd likey consume less of it and opt for more bread! So maybe now the breakdown would be 75% bread and 25% butter, so your basket that cost you $7.5 now costs you $12.5 (0.75 * 10 + 0.25 * 20). Inflation is only 67% compared to 100%. Trillions of dollars of government spending tied to inflation (e.g. pensions, wage increases, etc) has been saved!

In some respects its true, consumption will obviously shift to the cheaper items. But on the other hand, I want a simple objective measure of what increased money supply is doing to the price of goods. I'll figure out myself how much bread and butter I should buy.

So hence, I don't exactly "trust the experts" especially when there is trillions at stake.

But they would never play games right? The BLS is above reproach. What percentage of Americans can name anyone at the BLS or the methodology? Doesn't matter. Obviously the relative importance of Cakes, cupcakes, and cookies is 0.113, shifting from 0.188 just last month. Pretty obvious objective move.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#294

Post by cryptozeus »

cryptozeus wrote: post #151
throwaway4736 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ha. Imagine believing this. Yeah, please let me know when Chamath corrects the record on the topic in question. These guys are charlatans. These lying idiots have absolutely no shame in misleading you, and you are falling for it. “Oh, it’s just entertainment. Oh, it’s just opinion. Oh, you shouldn’t take them seriously.” No. Absolutely not. I refuse to give them a pass. We have to stop normalizing this behavior. Ethi…

Lol good for you! Don’t watch it. Be the moral police, see how that works out. This is the reason moderates are pushed into right side.

I was being condescending about it, should not have done that. I take it back.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#295

Post by llamaimperative »

cryptozeus wrote: post #294
cryptozeus wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol good for you! Don’t watch it. Be the moral police, see how that works out. This is the reason moderates are pushed into right side.

I was being condescending about it, should not have done that. I take it back.

No one is taking issue with your condescension or your tone. They're taking issue with your extremely bad ideas.

"Don't tell people not to lie or I'll become an extreme right winger" is a bad idea. It's a stupid thought. If you share that thought, you will be made fun of. But it's not because you shared it in a bad way. It's because it's a bad idea.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#296

Post by importantbrian »

bko wrote: post #293
cywick wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think vibes are underrated. The smart people can easily mislead you because they're smart. So you can cover things up with "official statistics", maliciously or by accident. > For instance, inflation is a big one. I remember during the first spike in inflation (2021 I believe), I started nothing prices have gone up between 25-50%. We've been told at the time inflation was something like 7% but that would mean pay…

My gut tells me that there are literally trillions of dollars tied to the "official" inflation numbers, so there is a huge incentive to nudge them one way or another, not to mention that no politician likes to be blamed for high inflation. But if you want to get into it, sure. The inflation numbers are not a fixed basket of goods. They take into account elasticity and shifts the basket to weight less expensive items…

This is not how it works. The weighting is based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey. BLS does not arbitrarily assign the weights. If they change the weighting between butter and bread it's because they found that people were buying more bread in the CES not because they assume that's what will happen.

CPI's methodology is transparent and the data is available if you wish to reproduce it. They aren't playing games with the data. There are all kinds of reasons your personal inflation rate might differ from CPI but it's not because BLS is putting their thumb on the scale to try and show less inflation.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#297

Post by piuantiderp »

echoangle wrote: post #199
piuantiderp wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most countries that have them, they are free. Taxes already paid for them. Yes, even replacements

In most countries? Really? All countries in Europe I’ve ever heard of make you pay for it. Where is it free?

LATAM
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