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Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

passingtime.substack.com

141–150 of 297 posts

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#141
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably also a fraud but just a bit less blatant. A subtle, gentleman's grifter.

This is how baseless rumors start. You're speculating without a hint of evidence.

Point taken, you're right, and I'm just having a laugh. But he does surround himself with grifters. In any case, I think he'll be fine.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#142
Well he doesn't know how to divide. If private sector does 2% and government does 1% then government is 50% not 33%. Similarly he displays the level of government spending, not the change. If government is 30% of GDP, then automatically its 30% of GDP growth no matter what. And again 30% is really 50% of the private sector. Now if the government grows from 30% to 35% like it shows on that chart, in addition to few quarters of 50%, thats how you get to government being 100% of the growth. Just use $, the % is clearly too hard for HN. Economy was 100. Government 30, private sector 70. Economy grew to 105, government 35, private sector 70. So 100% of the growth was government. I hope the author reads this comment, HN is being a weird echo chamber. Bayesian probability people, what is the chance that All In is actually wrong based on a random blog post.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find these guys are pretty insightful when discussing tech and VC news. The politics talk is awful. Chamath is a lightweight who doesn't know anything about how our government works but speaks confidently -- I remember one time he was talking about how raising the debt ceiling will allow the President to spend more money. Sacks is a partisan hack who will spin everything as a positive for Trump and MAGA politics. T…

Likewise for VC/tech. I started listening for those topics and in those days that used to be almost entire show then they slowly started pivot to politics & social commentary which I dont care much for (from them). they are a bunch of centi/billionaire and should stick to that lane but I feel now they have become the podcast arm of RW. I have to say I find myself skipping lots of portions now, its almost not worth it…

> sacks is good at logic/debating and It seems they use that to push a RW pov without sounding like they are endorsing it by presenting a weak/half baked opposition to it.

This is a really great point I completely hadn’t considered.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#144
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recently they have all agreed that voter ID laws "just make sense." But they don't even bring up any of the unpleasant history around IDs. This year is the 80th anniversary of the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, do they really need to go through the history of IDs? We need to rebuild confidence in the integrity of elections, Voter ID, which most democratic countries require, seems like an incredibly modest step…

'its old so we can assume everyone shares the same information and perspective' is a bad way to do decision making and argumentation full stop. Topic and perspective independent. One of the things I used to see pushed back on, but it seems to have gone by the way side recently, is not citing the original source but rather citing the someone saying something about the source. Its increasingly pervasive in all types of…

> The OP mentions that reviewing the history would inform the discussion. You dismissed being informed and simply provided a truism - specifically accepted a truism common from oen side.

I'm sorry, but saying "review the history," without specifically referring to things that happened in history and why they are relevant today, is absolutely worthless and a copout. If you have a reason why voters can't use ID today, say it, this "educate yourself" crap is a weaselly way to get out of defending your position while looking down your nose at the same time.

You can't work without ID. Surely that's worse than not being able to vote, not being able to eat?

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#145
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find these guys are pretty insightful when discussing tech and VC news. The politics talk is awful. Chamath is a lightweight who doesn't know anything about how our government works but speaks confidently -- I remember one time he was talking about how raising the debt ceiling will allow the President to spend more money. Sacks is a partisan hack who will spin everything as a positive for Trump and MAGA politics. T…

Chamath is a fraud. He dumped an unbelievable number of SPACs retail that imploded.[0] The fact that he's part of the All-In crew speaks volumes. [0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chamath-palihapitiya-crumblin...

100%. I read the article and the moment author mentioned Chamath, I realized it must be some bs he peddled. It is surprising to me how many HN readers in this thread don't know how big a scammer Chamath is.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#146
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to rebuild confidence in the integrity of elections, Voter ID, which most democratic countries require, seems like an incredibly modest step. People didn't lose confidence in the integrity of elections because our elections lack integrity, they lost confidence because they were told in a way that resonates with them that our elections lack integrity. Voter ID would just be security theater in that it's an o…

I'm having a hard time understanding your comment. I'm not American, but can someone explain why it wouldn't make sense to lose confidence in elections when gerrymandering and the electoral college skew the results so much? Sure, votes are technically counted, but if the system is set up so that those votes don't really impact the outcome the way you'd expect, isn't that a pretty valid reason to feel disillusioned?

You have an excellent point that I didn't take into account when I left my comment. Personally I don't mind the electoral college too much but the gerrymandering that goes on in the U.S. is epic.

Against that we have people saying we need Voter ID? Is there any more better time to use the "arranging deck chairs on the Titanic" analogy, except for perhaps on an actual sinking ship?

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, but being more honest about immigration is better in the long term. Well, I say that, but that's what Canada did and people (not just conservatives) are still angry. Instead of blaming illegal immigrants, however, they just blame legal ones.

I think Canada had a poorly determined policy which the country couldn't handle the incredible surge of immigrants - especially those who came from south asia through the diploma mill college route and added limited value to the country. Also in Canada the more people come the worse the socialized services if it isn't properly managed (which it hasn't been).

Yes, they definitely over extended on legal immigration, although it should turn into a net positive maybe a decade later assuming they cut back on it now.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#148

Leading off the article with Yglesias shows the guy has little idea what he’s proposing to discuss. Imports can reduce GDP because the import is imported and not domestically produced. The formula identifies specifically: that which is consumed domestically but not produced domestically is not part of domestic production. There is no inconsistency here at all with revised trade policy increasing GDP. It should be tot…

Yglesias is just repeating arguments that have been mode over and over by people who do in fact know what they are talking about (Noah Smith makes the argument well here https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/imports-do-not-subtract-from-g... ) The moon base example I think makes the argument very clearly. If you have an economy which produces nothing then it has a GDP of 0. If the increase imports for whatever reason, their…

>The moon base example I think makes the argument very clearly. If you have an economy which produces nothing then it has a GDP of 0. If the increase imports for whatever reason, their GDP is still 0, which means that imports doesn't subtract from GDP, otherwise their GDP would be negative which is nonsensical.

It's technically true that imports don't decrease GDP, but that's only true if there's no substitution effects. But for most goods substitution effect does exist, and therefore we should expect a GDP drop from imports.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#149
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We need to rebuild confidence in the integrity of elections, Voter ID, which most democratic countries require, seems like an incredibly modest step. People didn't lose confidence in the integrity of elections because our elections lack integrity, they lost confidence because they were told in a way that resonates with them that our elections lack integrity. Voter ID would just be security theater in that it's an o…

There is no magic here. Ballots have no identifiers attached to them. Fraudulent ballots are indistinguishable from real ballots. Envelopes do have identifiers attached to them but are separated from ballots. It is not always necessary to submit envelopes with ballots, and batch integrity is not necessarily maintained or useful based on batch size. False registration and/or false voting can produce fake ballots. Ball…

I wish people would've responded to you instead of down-voting you.

I've heard those arguments, but the thing is there are several cases around the country right now where ballot-level fraud _was_ caught[1].

Without doing any research I'll say that while it's easier to generate a bogus ballot than it is to generate a bogus hundred dollar bill, it just doesn't scale to the point where it's useful. It's a pain in the ass to get your hands on enough ballots, fill them out, and deliver them to a drop box or whatever. You can't just pull up with a wagon full of ballots and drop them off.

How much is it worth to somebody to flip a county? Which county do you flip? How many ballots will you need to flip it? What's the risk/reward ratio like?

[1] https://www.cpr.org/2024/11/06/mesa-county-mail-ballots-frau...

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