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Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

passingtime.substack.com

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Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#121

Post by thinkharderdev »

digdugdirk wrote: post #59
olix0r wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets…

It's fascinating that Michael Crichton would have a quote like that when he's been guilty of falling into the same trap himself. It really shows how difficult it is for the human mind to have perspective on itself.

The fact that it's named after Murray Gell-Man, a Nobel prize winning physicist should tell you something. Intelligence doesn't save you from it.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#122

Post by deskr »

TApplencourt wrote: post #116
deskr wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, I didn't know this effect had a name. I've experienced it so many times. I've also seen how politicians lie and tell half truths about stuff, where I know the full story like them.

It was in the article...

Shows that it's not safe to assume that a random Besserwisser on HN has read the article. In my defence I did skim through it though.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#123

Post by astrange »

KK7NIL wrote: post #41
kemiller2002 wrote: post #6

Please don't beat me up too much on this. Even if their faulty assumption was true, wouldn't that just be a Keynesian approach to solving a recession? I though Keynes approach was that the government should step in a spend more to prevent a recession, essentially equalling what is lost in the free market. Fully admit could be totally wrong on this. Just curious.

This is for Q3 of this year, for which the government is saying we're not in a recession. The problem with Keynesian economics is that no one wants to turn off the money printer when the times are good.

> The problem with Keynesian economics is that no one wants to turn off the money printer when the times are good.

That's what central bank independence is for. Raising interest rates is effectively the same thing.

Besides that it has been turned off for three years:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

But the US population is getting increasingly older so there will be increasing pressure on welfare for them.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#124

Post by thinkharderdev »

toephu2 wrote: post #111
xrd wrote: post #26

The irony of people like this misinterpreting government data as they orchestrate and cheer on a change in government.

What government data did they misinterpret? They correctly stated that the job numbers always get revised down not up. They also correctly stated that the GDP growth in the last quarter was largely driven by government spend, and if you take out the private sector, there was little growth.

> They also correctly stated that the GDP growth in the last quarter was largely driven by government spend, and if you take out the private sector, there was little growth.

The entire article is pointing out quite clearly that this, in fact, not correct.

> They correctly stated that the job numbers always get revised down not up.

This is also demonstrably false with like 5 minutes of research. This is all a matter of public record https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#125

Post by greenie_beans »

toephu2 wrote: post #115
greenie_beans wrote: post #5

I watched their election result livestream last night. They had some notable guests, like Donald Trump Jr. and Steve Bannon. Bannon was excited about the prospect of deporting 15 million people. Jason seemed shocked, as if this wasn't what he's been supporting all along. Does he not realize that he's in bed with fascists? Or he's just a fascist too? They hinted at knowing who will be the secretary of state and treasu…

Now they're fascist? I don't think you know what the definition of fascism is... (sounds like you're repeating a talking point of the left of calling everyone on the right a fascist..)

no, if it walks like a duck...

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#126

Post by astrange »

the_optimist wrote: post #96

Leading off the article with Yglesias shows the guy has little idea what he’s proposing to discuss. Imports can reduce GDP because the import is imported and not domestically produced. The formula identifies specifically: that which is consumed domestically but not produced domestically is not part of domestic production. There is no inconsistency here at all with revised trade policy increasing GDP. It should be tot…

Imports don't /reduce/ GDP. They don't affect GDP because they are not produced domestically. What you're proposing is import substitution (tariffs), which is bad because

1. domestically imported goods can have imported inputs.

2. reduced competition from the external good means the internal ones will be worse.

> It should be totally obvious and intuitive that if the same good is consumed domestically, producing it domestically rather than importing it will increase GDP, all other externalities and second-order impacts aside.

There's no situation where those can be put aside, and since GDP is an artificial formula you shouldn't Goodhart it like that.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#127

Post by tmn »

jmyeet wrote: post #114
WillPostForFood wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recently they have all agreed that voter ID laws "just make sense." But they don't even bring up any of the unpleasant history around IDs. This year is the 80th anniversary of the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, do they really need to go through the history of IDs? We need to rebuild confidence in the integrity of elections, Voter ID, which most democratic countries require, seems like an incredibly modest step…

> Voter ID, which most democratic countries require, seems like an incredibly modest step. As always, you should ask "what purpose does this serve?" Do we need voter ID laws? Well, is there a widespread voter fraud problem? No [1]. When you declare something to be "common sense", you betray either a lack of knowledge of why something is the way it is, you know why it's like that but you're willing to lie about it to…

You’re going to lose people at the first point. You don’t believe there is fraud. But others do (or believe there could be in the future)

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#128

Post by eschaton »

secabeen wrote: post #119
FigurativeVoid wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that voter ID laws are probably fine. I'm in a state that has them, and I suspect that I would feel weird if the requirement were repealed. I don't know if IDs are free in all states, but if they are, I would be more inclined to support it as a requirement for voting. I also would want to get an objective handle on how the IDs are treated. I have had friends get questioned because "Their signature didn't matc…

> I think that voter ID laws are probably fine. I'm in a state that has them, and I suspect that I would feel weird if the requirement were repealed. > I don't know if IDs are free in all states, but if they are, I would be more inclined to support it as a requirement for voting. The IDs being free is good, but not sufficient. The ID issuing organization also must be funded sufficiently to provide comprehensive acces…

And you can be absolutely certain it won’t be, because the reason for Voter ID laws is to disenfranchise people that the people making the laws don’t want to vote.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#129

Post by alexanderchr »

nostrebored wrote: post #19

Misinterpreting data is easy. To be clear -- I think the All In podcast is frequently flagrantly wrong, but basically all podcasts that try to foretell events are. Chamath mistaking 0.85 absolute as 0.85 relative is fairly easy to do. Even the critique's interpretation is very shallow -- things like second order effects, like the fiscal multiplier contribution, aren't considered. But macro is an art more than a scien…

Sure - it's an easy mistake to make if you are dealing with data that don't mean anything to you. But anyone with even a tiny bit of experience reading macroeconomic data should be able to tell that something is very off with that number and question it before parrotting it in a podcast.

Re: Learning not to trust the All-In podcast

#130

Post by piuantiderp »

capitalbreeze wrote: post #112
FigurativeVoid wrote: post #67

When the pandemic started, I really enjoyed the podcast. They seemed to have some good insights, and I found them funny. It was a vibe that I sorely missed being home alone. If one them sees this, I hope they take it kindly. The podcast has gone downhill drastically. The level of discourse has dropped considerably. They make all sorts of claims with very little evidence. Recently they have all agreed that voter ID la…

Crazy no one talks about how the argument against voter ID is that IDs cost money, $90 in Washington. This essentially becomes a Voting Tax.

In most countries that have them, they are free. Taxes already paid for them. Yes, even replacements
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