Compare and contrast the repost today of The Singularity - would Hayek believe that a computer (with the goal of being an Economy Maximizer) would even theoretically be able to have enough knowledge to implement economic equilibrium (and maintain that equilibrium over time)?
The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
21–30 of 35 posts
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hayek doesn't talk about price stability or inflation at all in this article. There's no fallacy here. This is basically the "prices are all we need" of economics. It's written in historical context when some still economists thought that a centrally planned economy could work. Hayek writes about the price system and how it enables an economy to function in a decentralized manner, and why it can't function without it…
Not in the article, but the body of work (that you're clearly familiar with). If you believe the Fed/ability-of-the-Fed to smooth the boom/bust cycle, then you disagree with Hayek -- he wasn't (just) arguing for a generally free market -- he believed that all markets were perfect (especially/including the price value of Money). It turned out Keynes was right.
I think it's "too soon" to say that Keynes was right. Afaik, Hayek predicted the Great Depression based on the Austrian business cycle theory. I think that ABCT is mostly right, but it's probably imperfect. There's so much going on in the real world that it's almost impossible to say whether a policy or a theory or whatever actually caused something or didn't cause, and what would have happened otherwise.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#23Thanks for linking to this -- it highlights a fallacy that Hayek seemed to mire in whereas on one hand, he believed that the aggregate "market" forces would always be sufficient to stabilize pricing stability (/inflation) he railed against the ability for any 'manager' (i.e. the government) to do so. I'd strongly recommend to folks interested in this to pick up the Stiglitz, et al 2001 Nobel Prize on information asym…
Hayek doesn't talk about price stability or inflation at all in this article. There's no fallacy here. This is basically the "prices are all we need" of economics. It's written in historical context when some still economists thought that a centrally planned economy could work. Hayek writes about the price system and how it enables an economy to function in a decentralized manner, and why it can't function without it…
This is for the simple reason that prices more or less only communicate information about the amount of labor required to produce a thing[0].
Therefore prices on their own are, for example, incapable of transmitting information about what action needs to be taken to correct the relationship to the biosphere. Information about the state of the biosphere will only enter into prices to the extent that things start taking more labor to produce. But there’s no market mechanism that would then cause that to direct action towards stabilizing the climate.
[0]: This is because cost resolves into business owner’s cut + labor cost + cost of inputs, and the inputs can recursively be split into the same until you’re left with the amount owners take, the amount paid to workers, and the amount paid to owners of natural resources.
The business owner’s cut and the amount paid to owners of natural resources are socially determined and bear almost no relationship to the physical world or reproduction of society.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#24Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#25I've been exploring data / information / knowledge / wisdom management a lot over the last couple months. I was surprised to discover how little consensus there is over the meaning of each of those terms. Or rather, subfields seem to have different takes on the meanings. "Data" and "information" I can kinda pin down. "Knowledge" and "wisdom" much less. Hayek in this article for instance does not seem to ever define w…
Once you start on the path of semantics, it's often turtles all the way down. So, unless you want to be rigorous, it's best to go with the generally accepted best bet.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#26- Just because there are restoring forces doesn't mean stability is reached. This is basic control theory, but it escaped economists for a long time. There's always nonzero lag. Often there's a lot of lag. This can move things out of the stable region.
- There's an assumption here that a market economy is a competitive market economy. This breaks down when the number of major players in a market is small. Or somebody has a "moat". Read Thiel's "Zero to One".
- Hayek was writing in an era when manufacturing dominated, production cost exceeded marketing cost, and the size of companies was limited by inefficiencies in coordinating a really large organization. Those constraints favor a market economy. Today, services dominate, marketing often costs more than production (which means most of the cost is advertising), and computing has made it possible to scale companies to planetary scale without organizational collapse. Those factors favor sheer scale.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#27That''s a very classic view, from an era when market-based systems vs. central planning were a big issue. They missed so much. - Just because there are restoring forces doesn't mean stability is reached. This is basic control theory, but it escaped economists for a long time. There's always nonzero lag. Often there's a lot of lag. This can move things out of the stable region. - There's an assumption here that a mark…
Aside, there's also a fundamental trade-off been a competitive market and a market where individual actors have freedom.
For example, one model may assume that everyone has perfect price information and therefore the market is very efficient, while another assumes that everyone can make secret deals and keep prices hidden and therefore cartels are unstable.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#28That''s a very classic view, from an era when market-based systems vs. central planning were a big issue. They missed so much. - Just because there are restoring forces doesn't mean stability is reached. This is basic control theory, but it escaped economists for a long time. There's always nonzero lag. Often there's a lot of lag. This can move things out of the stable region. - There's an assumption here that a mark…
And again just last year everyone got fully bailed out when SVB collapsed.
This type of stuff encourages all kinds of halucinations.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#29That''s a very classic view, from an era when market-based systems vs. central planning were a big issue. They missed so much. - Just because there are restoring forces doesn't mean stability is reached. This is basic control theory, but it escaped economists for a long time. There's always nonzero lag. Often there's a lot of lag. This can move things out of the stable region. - There's an assumption here that a mark…
I wonder. Say we had various factories for producing goods around the world, and different factories requested the same inputs in different amounts. An algorithm could probably calculate how much of each input it should distribute to those factories. However, the structure of this economy still relies on the commodity form, since those inputs would almost certainly be worked in a certain, standardized way to be properly organized by the algorithm properly. Therefore, the computerization of the economy only leads to an image of the kind of unrestrained productivity you might imagine technology would bring, but lacks the kind of creativity necessary for it.
This is all to say that if not the market, then whatever else could've managed an incomprehensibly complex economy certainly existed before contemporary computers (and certainly, the structure of the economy in even the 19th century in early high capitalism itself was the "computer," the quantitative management of social forces). Its not as if our era, today, is particularly unique, or that Hayek was right then or wrong now, but rather that he was fundamentally wrong to believe that the market itself was the path to freedom, even then.
Re: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945) [pdf]
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hayek doesn't talk about price stability or inflation at all in this article. There's no fallacy here. This is basically the "prices are all we need" of economics. It's written in historical context when some still economists thought that a centrally planned economy could work. Hayek writes about the price system and how it enables an economy to function in a decentralized manner, and why it can't function without it…
It’s not remotely true that prices are capable of transmitting all the information required to reproduce society. This is for the simple reason that prices more or less only communicate information about the amount of labor required to produce a thing[0]. Therefore prices on their own are, for example, incapable of transmitting information about what action needs to be taken to correct the relationship to the biosphe…