Earlier quoted context omitted.
The human form is very versatile. While most robots may end up taking a different form, once we have sufficiently advanced humanoid robots, robots may replace human workers in almost any role.
I still have a hard time understanding what this future would look like? Will we just sit around and do nothing then? I'm not saying we have to work, but there is some level of work that I think is required for happiness / fulfillment etc. I'm not even really against the idea, it just sounds quite dystopian to me.
The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
121–130 of 181 posts
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you're saying that it's naive to suppose that everybody being much smarter than they are now would transform society, because any wide-scale societal change requires ongoing social cooperation between the many average-intelligence people society currently consists of?
Here’s a simpler way to put it: intelligence and social cooperation are not the same thing. Being good at math or science doesn’t mean you understand how to organize complex political groups, and never has. People tend to think their special gift is what the world needs, and academically-minded smart people (by that I mean people that define their self-worth by intelligence level) are no different.
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
I still have a hard time understanding what this future would look like? Will we just sit around and do nothing then? I'm not saying we have to work, but there is some level of work that I think is required for happiness / fulfillment etc. I'm not even really against the idea, it just sounds quite dystopian to me.
I think reading a broad swath of sci-fi might be the best way to engage this topic. For fairly positive takes — Asimov had a take in the robot novels, Accelerando by Charles Stross touches on reputation-based currency (among a deluge of other ideas), Iain M Banks’ Culture novels have a take, and I cannot find it but there was a short story posted here recently about a dual-class system where the protagonist is rescue…
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
I still have a hard time understanding what this future would look like? Will we just sit around and do nothing then? I'm not saying we have to work, but there is some level of work that I think is required for happiness / fulfillment etc. I'm not even really against the idea, it just sounds quite dystopian to me.
I have hopes that live music makes a huge comeback in the post-labor world. I work as an engineer, but I'm a classically trained musician. I'm working pretty hard on getting back into shape on the horn!
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
Before the industrial revolution, even though money existed, "wealth" really meant "land" rather than "capital". While we do not today need to ask how people can afford robot lawnmowers despite being unable to find work hitching ploughs to draft horses or oxen, the fears at the time of things like this did lead to mobs smashing looms. If I have some (n) robots that can do any task a human could do, one such task must…
Before the industrial revolution, even though money existed, "wealth" really meant "land" rather than "capital". The industrial revolution didn't really change anything about land. It's still a fundamental and underrated component of our economic system, arguably more important than capital. That's why Georgism is a thing Indeed, it's even contemporary to the industrial revolution. The economics are too alien, we can…
I didn't say otherwise.
I said the industrial revolution changed what wealth meant. We don't pay for rents with the productive yield of vegetable gardens, and a lawn is no longer a symbol of conspicuous consumption due to signifying that the owner/tenant is so rich they don't need all their land to be productive.
And indeed, while land is foundational, it's fine to just rent that land in many parts of the world. Even businesses do that.
I still expect us to have money after AI does whatever it does (unless that thing is "kill everyone"), I simply also expect that money to be an irrelevant part of how we measure the wealth of the world.
(If "world" is even the right term at that point).
> Arguably, it's much more important, and even more relevant today given how our land use policy is disastrous for our species and climate.
Not so; land use policy today is absolutely not a disaster for our species, though some specific disasters have happened on the scale of the depression era dustbowl or more recently Zimbabwe. For our climate, while we need to do better, land use is not the primary issue, it's about 18.4% of the problem vs. 73.2% being energy.
> So, yes. It is important to ask how consumers will pay for all these robots if they don't have any sort of income that would make using robots economical.
With a 2 year old laptop and model, making a picture with Stable Diffusion in a place where energy costs $0.1/kWh, costs about the same as paying a human on the UN abject poverty threshold for enough food to not starve for 4.43 seconds.
"How will we pay for it" doesn't mean the humans get to keep their jobs. It can be a rallying call for UBI, if that's what you want?
But robots-with-AI that can do anything a human can do, don't need humans to supply money.
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#126> To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter. I find it bizarre how often these points are repeated. They were both obviously wrong in 1993, and obviously wrong now. 1) A nitpick I've had since grad school: the answer to "can we cre…
> I sincerely have no idea why people believe so strongly that a human-level AI can build a superhuman AI. ...how on earth would such an AI even know it succeeded? This touches on one of the few good reasons to be less ardent about AI/AGI: "intelligence" is not very well-defined and we don't have very good ways of measuring it. I don't think this is a total blocker, but it might present difficulties. What if our curr…
How about this weaker statement: "It is not obviously true that humans (or a human-level AI) can bootstrap to a superhuman AI in a small number of years."
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#127Just on the naive math level, a simple growing exponential has no singularity at any finite time. I’m sure Vinge knows that but some of those dudes don’t seem to. EDIT Rest in peace. Fire Upon the Deep was great.
Of course, exponential growth is much more compatible with our experience of the real economy. And even it is probably a local approximation of some sigmoid.
But, to return to the singularity idea --
Iteration 1: Computers think at speed 1, and design a twice-as-fast computer in one time unit.
Iteration 2: Now computers think at speed 2, and design a twice-as-fast computer in half a time unit.
Iteration 3: Computers think at speed 4, and design a twice-as-fast computer in 1/4 time unit.
You will note that --
a.) The total time to do an infinite number of iterations is 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + ... = 2 time units.
b.) After this infinite number of iterations, the computer thinks at speed "2^infinity".
So that (bad) model does have a literal singularity.
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#128Just on the naive math level, a simple growing exponential has no singularity at any finite time. I’m sure Vinge knows that but some of those dudes don’t seem to. EDIT Rest in peace. Fire Upon the Deep was great.
The model underlying the word "singularity", AIUI, does involve a vertical asymptote. It is not supposed to be "merely" exponential. Of course, exponential growth is much more compatible with our experience of the real economy. And even it is probably a local approximation of some sigmoid. But, to return to the singularity idea -- Iteration 1: Computers think at speed 1, and design a twice-as-fast computer in one tim…
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
Before the industrial revolution, even though money existed, "wealth" really meant "land" rather than "capital". The industrial revolution didn't really change anything about land. It's still a fundamental and underrated component of our economic system, arguably more important than capital. That's why Georgism is a thing Indeed, it's even contemporary to the industrial revolution. The economics are too alien, we can…
> The industrial revolution didn't really change anything about land. I didn't say otherwise. I said the industrial revolution changed what wealth meant. We don't pay for rents with the productive yield of vegetable gardens, and a lawn is no longer a symbol of conspicuous consumption due to signifying that the owner/tenant is so rich they don't need all their land to be productive. And indeed, while land is foundatio…
Georgism doesn't exist in a vacuum. It wasn't like they were formulated during when the time when wealth 'meant' land. It was during the industrial revolution, possibly as a response to the problems they see in their society, problems we're still dealing with today.
No longer it merely meant land where productive yield of vegetable garden goes. Anything that capital sits on is land. That includes your factories and your datacenter. Yes, that include renting land on someone else. That's land policy.
Housing? Land policy. Pollution? Land policy. Transportation? Land policy. Can't afford to live? Likely your biggest ticket items include transportation and housing. Land is more important than ever.
Now, what does this have to do with AI? I would caution against thinking money or capital to be irrelevant or making any definitive prediction about the impact of AI or when or how they will come.
Edit: I see that you added stuff, but you have a narrow conception of land policy.
Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The industrial revolution didn't really change anything about land. I didn't say otherwise. I said the industrial revolution changed what wealth meant. We don't pay for rents with the productive yield of vegetable gardens, and a lawn is no longer a symbol of conspicuous consumption due to signifying that the owner/tenant is so rich they don't need all their land to be productive. And indeed, while land is foundatio…
Nope. Land is important because everything rest on it. Even radio spectrum and orbitals can be regarded as a form of 'land'. Georgism doesn't exist in a vacuum. It wasn't like they were formulated during when the time when wealth 'meant' land. It was during the industrial revolution, possibly as a response to the problems they see in their society, problems we're still dealing with today. No longer it merely meant la…
Then you define land so broadly that the empty vacuum of space, which robots are much better suited to than us, can exploit trivially when we cannot.
If you want to, that's fine, but it still doesn't need humans to be able to pay for anything.