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The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

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Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#21

Post by crackalamoo »

Mistletoe wrote: post #18
ta93754829 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we keep moving the goalposts, and that's not a bad thing. remember when Doom came out? How amazing and "realistic" we thought the graphics were? How ridiculous that seems now? We'll look back at ChatGPT4 the same way.

Or is ChatGPt4 4k TV, which is good enough for almost all of us and we are plateauing already? https://www.reddit.com/r/OLED/comments/fdc50f/8k_vs_4k_tvs_d...

I don't think we're at a plateau. There's still a lot GPT-4 can't do.

Given the progress we've seen so far with scaling, I think the next iterations will be a lot better. It might even take 10 or even 100x scale, but with increased investment and better hardware, that's not out of the question.

Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#22

Post by dartos »

Mistletoe wrote: post #18
ta93754829 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we keep moving the goalposts, and that's not a bad thing. remember when Doom came out? How amazing and "realistic" we thought the graphics were? How ridiculous that seems now? We'll look back at ChatGPT4 the same way.

Or is ChatGPt4 4k TV, which is good enough for almost all of us and we are plateauing already? https://www.reddit.com/r/OLED/comments/fdc50f/8k_vs_4k_tvs_d...

There’s absolutely room for improvement. I think models themselves are plateauing, but out interfaces to them are not.

Chat is probably not the best way to use LLMs. v0.dev has some really innovative ideas.

That’s where there’s innovation to be had here imo.

Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#23

Post by dartos »

crackalamoo wrote: post #21
Mistletoe wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or is ChatGPt4 4k TV, which is good enough for almost all of us and we are plateauing already? https://www.reddit.com/r/OLED/comments/fdc50f/8k_vs_4k_tvs_d...

I don't think we're at a plateau. There's still a lot GPT-4 can't do. Given the progress we've seen so far with scaling, I think the next iterations will be a lot better. It might even take 10 or even 100x scale, but with increased investment and better hardware, that's not out of the question.

I thought we’ve seen diminishing returns on benchmarks with the last wave of foundation models.

I doubt we’ll see a linear improvement curve with regards to parameter scaling.

Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#24

Post by dh77l »

lazide wrote: post #14
dh77l wrote: post #10

I loved his book Rainbows End as a kid. So many different concepts that blew my mind. Even without talking about AI we are already struggling with levels of Complexity in tech and the unpredictable consequences, that no one really has any control over. Michael Chrichton's books touch on that stuff but are all doom and gloom. Vinge's Rainbows End atleast, felt much more hopeful. I was talking to a VFX supervisor recen…

Honestly, considering the state of the world and how things are shaping up, it’s such a hilariously obvious pipe dream that such a system would be some omnipotent/hyper competent super-god like being. It’s more likely just going to post ragebait and dumb tiktok videos while producing just enough at it’s ‘job’ to fool people into thinking it’s doing a good job.

Yup things look bleak but its not a static world. For everything that happens there is a reaction. It builds with time. But to find the right reaction also takes time. This is the Explore part in the Tradeoff. AI will be applied there not just on the Exploit front.

What you are alluding too is Media/Social Medias current architecture and how it captures and steals peoples attention. Totally on the Exploit end of the tradeoff. And its easy stuff to do. Doesnt take time.

If you read the news after the fall of France to the nazis (within a month), what do you think the opinion of people was? People were thinking about peace negotiations with Hitler and that the Germans couldnt be beaten. It took a whole lot of Time to realize things could tilt in a different direction.

Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#25

Post by p1esk »

Animats wrote: post #19

We still don't have squirrel-level AI. This is embarrassing. Now that LLMs have been around for a while, it's fairly clear what they can and can't do. There are still some big pieces missing. Like some kind of world model.

fairly clear what they can and can't do

It’s not at all clear what the next gen models will do (e.g. gpt5). Might be enough to trigger mass unemployment. Or not.

Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#28

Post by trescenzi »

samsartor wrote: post #15

> We humans have the ability to internalize the world and conduct "what if's" in our heads; we can solve many problems thousands of times faster than natural selection. I don't know for sure whether superintellegence will happen, but as for the singularity, this is the underlying assumption I have the most issue with. Smart isn't the limiting factor of progress, often it's building consensus, getting funding, waiting…

I do think one of the major weaknesses of “smart people” is they tend to think of intelligence as the key aspect of basically everything. Reality is though we have plenty of intelligence already. We know how to solve most of our problems. The challenges are much more social and our will as a society to make things happen.

Re: The Coming Technological Singularity (1993)

#30

Post by lazide »

dh77l wrote: post #24
lazide wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, considering the state of the world and how things are shaping up, it’s such a hilariously obvious pipe dream that such a system would be some omnipotent/hyper competent super-god like being. It’s more likely just going to post ragebait and dumb tiktok videos while producing just enough at it’s ‘job’ to fool people into thinking it’s doing a good job.

Yup things look bleak but its not a static world. For everything that happens there is a reaction. It builds with time. But to find the right reaction also takes time. This is the Explore part in the Tradeoff. AI will be applied there not just on the Exploit front. What you are alluding too is Media/Social Medias current architecture and how it captures and steals peoples attention. Totally on the Exploit end of the…

Eh, I’m not talking about people’s opinions.

I’m talking about evolutionary functions, and how much more likely it is to prefer something that has fun and just looks like it’s doing something, instead of actually doing something.

Aka manipulation vs actual hard work.

Do you have any concrete proposals, besides ‘it will get better’?

Actual competency is hard. Faking it is usually way easier.

It’s the same reason the ‘grey goo’ scenarios were actually pipe dreams too. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_goo]

That shit would be really hard, thermodynamically, not to mention technically.

We’re already living in the best ‘grey goo’ scenario evolution has come up with, and I’m not particularly worried.

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