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How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

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Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#251

Post by runarberg »

tim333 wrote: post #247
runarberg wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can find a genocide in post WW2 history that didn’t result in the failure of the perpetrators state, that only refutes the absolute strongest version of my claim. However that doesn’t refute my general claim that Genocidal states do in fact tend to dissolve over the following decades, and that history has examples of apartheid states—even heavily armed ones—dissolving into a single state democracy of all its p…

Assuming it is genocidal. You classic genocide is rounding up people and killing them all, eg the Nazis on the jews. Israel's approach has been to let the Gazans get on with things with their population growing from 1.1m in 2000 to 2.04m in 2024 then being attacked and and killing 0.04m fighting back to get their hostages. If they are doing a genocide I'm not sure they are doing it right.

[flagged]

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#252

Post by tim333 »

aguaviva wrote: post #249
tim333 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming it is genocidal. You classic genocide is rounding up people and killing them all, eg the Nazis on the jews. Israel's approach has been to let the Gazans get on with things with their population growing from 1.1m in 2000 to 2.04m in 2024 then being attacked and and killing 0.04m fighting back to get their hostages. If they are doing a genocide I'm not sure they are doing it right.

However if the goal is to create conditions favorable to what they coldly refer to as "voluntary population transfer", i.e. ethnic cleansing very much in the classical definition -- they they're doing a masterful job indeed: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-in-talks-with-congo-and...

Well, that may be true.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#253

Post by tptacek »

dtornabene wrote: post #239
tptacek wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the extent that it is the dominant military power in Lebanon and it is directed by a foreign power, while enjoying something like 8% public support outside the Shia minority in Lebanon, I do feel comfortable referring to it as an occupying power. The Syria thing is not a small deal. I feel like if I have a stake in any part of these cursed threads, it's the notion that just because you oppose Israel --- a deeply p…

1) There hasn't been an official census in Lebanon in nearly a century[1], precisely because such statistics would upset a fragile balance of power between competing minority groups. So I'm not sure where you are getting the 8% public support outside the Shia minority line but if you have access to census data that literally the entire rest of the world, including and most prominently the Lebanese, do not have, perha…

I'm sorry but my lived experience of this thread is that you're the one who jumped in. I'm happy you did so, but maybe we just leave this at "we disagree and our premises are too far apart for it to make sense to litigate".

My contention is that Hezbollah is a literal arm of the IRGC Quds Force, integrated into Iranian military command and control, operating in Iran's regional strategic interests, to the point of dragging Lebanon into another regional war for no apparent benefit to Lebanon itself; it is further the most powerful military organization in Lebanon and largely outside the reach of internal law in Lebanon. Ergo: I would say that Hezbollah is evidence of Iranian occupation of Lebanon.

If you want to dispute the definitions I'm using, that's fine; it's just about the most boring thing we could possible argue about. What I strongly object to is the notion that Hezbollah under Nasrallah has functioned as a "resistance movement", as has been claimed elsewhere on this thread. Ask a Sunni in Homs what they think about that claim.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#254

Post by runarberg »

tptacek wrote: post #253
dtornabene wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) There hasn't been an official census in Lebanon in nearly a century[1], precisely because such statistics would upset a fragile balance of power between competing minority groups. So I'm not sure where you are getting the 8% public support outside the Shia minority line but if you have access to census data that literally the entire rest of the world, including and most prominently the Lebanese, do not have, perha…

I'm sorry but my lived experience of this thread is that you're the one who jumped in. I'm happy you did so, but maybe we just leave this at "we disagree and our premises are too far apart for it to make sense to litigate". My contention is that Hezbollah is a literal arm of the IRGC Quds Force, integrated into Iranian military command and control, operating in Iran's regional strategic interests, to the point of dra…

You seem to have adopted a very convenient definition of “resistance movement”. In almost all colonial warfare throughout history, the colonized received international support. Sometimes this was just weapons and aid, sometimes these were international volunteer bridges, and sometimes whole armies of a supporting nation. For example, in Rhodesian bush war, not only were the main Zimbabwe resistance groups armed and supplied by China and the Soviet Union, but they also had fighters and armed groups coming from Mozambique, ANC (South Africa) and Zambia.

During the Gaza genocide Hezbollah has been one of only two international groups who have fought with the Palestinian resistance (the other being the Huthis). Not even Iran has fought to help Palestine (they merely sent a nominal amount of missiles for reasons other than the liberation of Palestine). The ANC, and Mozambique fighters surely were armed and supplied by e.g. the Soviet Union, who probably event gave them intelligence, military advice, etc. But at no point were they a vessel or otherwise integrated into any military unit of the Soviet Union. And they fought the Rhodesian Government on ideological grounds and in solidarity with their colonized partners on the continent, but also of self preservation as e.g. the Mozambique resistance probably saw an independent Rhodesian Government would be a thread to their own liberation.

To claim e.g. that the ANC were evidence of a Soviet occupation in Africa would be very ahistorical (and I don’t thing anybody would do that), but still (and I haven’t checked, so I may be wrong) it wouldn’t surprise me that many contemporary apologists of African apartheid did just that.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#255

Post by tptacek »

runarberg wrote: post #254
tptacek wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but my lived experience of this thread is that you're the one who jumped in. I'm happy you did so, but maybe we just leave this at "we disagree and our premises are too far apart for it to make sense to litigate". My contention is that Hezbollah is a literal arm of the IRGC Quds Force, integrated into Iranian military command and control, operating in Iran's regional strategic interests, to the point of dra…

You seem to have adopted a very convenient definition of “resistance movement”. In almost all colonial warfare throughout history, the colonized received international support. Sometimes this was just weapons and aid, sometimes these were international volunteer bridges, and sometimes whole armies of a supporting nation. For example, in Rhodesian bush war, not only were the main Zimbabwe resistance groups armed and s…

Was Hezbollah an active ideological adversary of Israel, a participant in the conflict between Israel and Hamas/PIJ? Absolutely. Does that mean it participated in what Iran calls "resistance" to the state of Israel? Absolutely. Is that Hezbollah's core function? Absolutely not. Hezbollah is a service branch of the Iranian military. In every conflict Hezbollah has fought with Israel, it has incurred fewer losses and contested less territory than it did in Syria.

Empirically, Hezbollah's function is to serve Iran's regional strategic interests. When those interests align against Israel, as they so often do, Hezbollah "resists" Israel. When they involve killing Lebanese Sunni political adversaries, they do otherwise. When they involve projecting Iranian military power in other foreign conflicts, that's what they do.

I walk down the street, and someone sitting down the side of the road asks for some spare change. I give them a couple bucks and keep walking. Am I a philanthropist? Maybe in that moment? But I am in reality a software developer.

If you want to argue that Hezbollah is both a resistance movement and a foreign military occupier of Lebanon, we might find a place to agree. But, obviously, us agreeing isn't important. I'm comfortable with what this thread says about our respective positions!

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#256

Post by runarberg »

tptacek wrote: post #255
runarberg wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have adopted a very convenient definition of “resistance movement”. In almost all colonial warfare throughout history, the colonized received international support. Sometimes this was just weapons and aid, sometimes these were international volunteer bridges, and sometimes whole armies of a supporting nation. For example, in Rhodesian bush war, not only were the main Zimbabwe resistance groups armed and s…

Was Hezbollah an active ideological adversary of Israel, a participant in the conflict between Israel and Hamas/PIJ? Absolutely. Does that mean it participated in what Iran calls "resistance" to the state of Israel? Absolutely. Is that Hezbollah's core function? Absolutely not. Hezbollah is a service branch of the Iranian military. In every conflict Hezbollah has fought with Israel, it has incurred fewer losses and c…

With that line of reasoning you could claim that the American Indian Movement is a foreign occupying power within the USA, as they receive support from and serve the strategic interests of other indigenous liberation movements around the Americas (including Nicaragua and Bolivia); Or you could flip the script and claim that the Nicaraguan Contras were a US backed foreign occupying power in Nicaragua.

That is simply not what a foreign occupying power means. Let’s take the contras for example. They weren’t just mindless drones of the US empire, they had their own strategic interest which happened to align with US interest in the region. Would they have been active without US backing, for sure, they just wouldn’t have been so successful (and therefore not as brutal).

The Contras main interest were to reinstate the pre-revolution powerstructure, and to make sure no wealth and land redistribution occurred, they adopted whichever strategy they saw fit, including a heavy anti-communism in order to secure US backing.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#257

Post by tptacek »

runarberg wrote: post #256
tptacek wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was Hezbollah an active ideological adversary of Israel, a participant in the conflict between Israel and Hamas/PIJ? Absolutely. Does that mean it participated in what Iran calls "resistance" to the state of Israel? Absolutely. Is that Hezbollah's core function? Absolutely not. Hezbollah is a service branch of the Iranian military. In every conflict Hezbollah has fought with Israel, it has incurred fewer losses and c…

With that line of reasoning you could claim that the American Indian Movement is a foreign occupying power within the USA, as they receive support from and serve the strategic interests of other indigenous liberation movements around the Americas (including Nicaragua and Bolivia); Or you could flip the script and claim that the Nicaraguan Contras were a US backed foreign occupying power in Nicaragua. That is simply n…

This feels like an argument about definitions. Substitute whatever term you prefer. Though: I don't find it plausible that the American aboriginal rights movement is directed by foreign powers.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#258

Post by dtornabene »

tptacek wrote: post #253
dtornabene wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) There hasn't been an official census in Lebanon in nearly a century[1], precisely because such statistics would upset a fragile balance of power between competing minority groups. So I'm not sure where you are getting the 8% public support outside the Shia minority line but if you have access to census data that literally the entire rest of the world, including and most prominently the Lebanese, do not have, perha…

I'm sorry but my lived experience of this thread is that you're the one who jumped in. I'm happy you did so, but maybe we just leave this at "we disagree and our premises are too far apart for it to make sense to litigate". My contention is that Hezbollah is a literal arm of the IRGC Quds Force, integrated into Iranian military command and control, operating in Iran's regional strategic interests, to the point of dra…

That Sunni in Homs that you want to ventriloquize (do...do you actually know any Sunnis from Homs? Seriously dude. Do you get why its extremely gross to use their suffering for point scoring?) wasn't under Hezbollahs boot in 1982, when it was formed to resist an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. This is what I mean when I say your definition of "occupation" is doing an incredible amount of ideological lifting, and why it is, in fact, a resistance movement. You haven't responded to the link I provided nor provided any of your own to buttress an part of your own argument, which is pretty telling I think. Do you actually know anything, literally anything at all about the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon? Thats a serious question and if you want to respond to me I'd ask you to respond, in detail, to that. Because the idea that the Lebanese were just peachy keen over their country being invaded and brutalized, for years and years, until the Iranians planted an occupation force in their midst is... its kind of gross man! The idea that the Lebanese right now were just fine with the slaughter in Gaza and its only the evil Persians and their scheming who are whipping up antizionist sentiment...that kind of argument has a history. You can point to the horror show of the Syrian Civil War all you want, that came literally two plus decades after Hezbollah was formed. I'm not sure if its intentional or not, but I see you have now tightened your argument to say "Hezbollah under Nasrallah". Kind of looks like a shifting goalpost to me. Do you believe it was a resistance movement and then degenerated under Nasrallah? Seems germane!

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#259

Post by tptacek »

dtornabene wrote: post #258
tptacek wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but my lived experience of this thread is that you're the one who jumped in. I'm happy you did so, but maybe we just leave this at "we disagree and our premises are too far apart for it to make sense to litigate". My contention is that Hezbollah is a literal arm of the IRGC Quds Force, integrated into Iranian military command and control, operating in Iran's regional strategic interests, to the point of dra…

That Sunni in Homs that you want to ventriloquize (do...do you actually know any Sunnis from Homs? Seriously dude. Do you get why its extremely gross to use their suffering for point scoring?) wasn't under Hezbollahs boot in 1982 , when it was formed to resist an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. This is what I mean when I say your definition of "occupation" is doing an incredible amount of ideological lifting, a…

I don't know what point you're trying to make here, sorry. The Hezbollah siege of Madaya didn't occur in 1982. You've jumped onto a thread about what Hezbollah is; I don't know that it's reasonable to object to comments pointing out what it isn't. By all means, rebut them if you can.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#260

Post by xg15 »

tptacek wrote: post #123
xg15 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Full disclaimer: I have no personal ties to the conflict and I get the largest part of my information about it from Haaretz, Wikipedia and Al Jazeera. So I definitely have a bias) > "I support Israel's right to exist but Netanyahu belongs at the Hague" is a pretty common position. I think Netanyahu (and Smotrich, Ben Gvir, etc) are a big part of the problem, but it's too simple to blame everything on them. The diffe…

No, Hezbollah has not behaved "entirely rational and predictable". They have indiscriminately fired rockets at civilian populations in northern Israel, often over a hundred in a single day, averaging dozens every day continuously for almost a year, killing principally (as you'd expect) civilians (ironically, many of them not Israeli Jewish citizens), in one case including half a youth football team.

Yes, between 26 and 31 civilians were killed on the Israeli side [1] (and at least 88 on the Lebanese side in Israeli counterstrikes) - during an entire year of daily rocket attacks.

Compare that to the death toll on October 7, or in Gaza or the West Bank or even just to a single(!) average Israeli airstrike.

I'm really sorry I have to make this comparision and I really don't want to downplay those deaths. I strongly believe that you can't compare individual deaths - but I think you absolutely can compare the orders of magnitude of killing happening.

My point is that those numbers are an indicator that Hezbollah (and also Israel) followed a different strategy in the north (at least they did pre Northern Arrows). Hezbollah's officially claimed goals are "area denial" - they want to prevent the inhabitants of the northern towns from returning to put pressure on the Israeli government - and preventing the IDF from using its full military force in Gaza. From what I can glean from the media, their attacks were consistent with those goals.

(An additional indicator for me is that most of the rockets targeted communities that had already been evacuated shortly after the war began [2] - yet Hezbollah kept hitting them for months and months after that point [3]. If the goal is killing, this would make no sense, however it's logical if the goal is to prevent inhabitants from coming back.)

This is what I meant with them behaving "rational and predictable" and what media at some point started to call "the unwritten rules of engagement". It was clearly a long-term problem for Israel, but nothing that had required some urgent "self defense" actions to avoid immediate death. (Also, a clear path to de-escalation was available the whole time: make a deal.)

(They did change their targeting over time and chose targets that were increasingly southward [4], however that was a slow process over many months)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_confl...

[2] https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769567

[3] https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2024-1...

[4] https://israel-alma.org/2024/09/02/the-northern-arena-and-th...

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