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How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

reuters.com

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Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#141

Post by aguaviva »

xpl wrote: post #137
gamblor956 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there is a declared state of war between two countries, than someone else doing what Israel did to Hezbollah would be considered a valid act of war. The problem is that Israel and Hezbollah are currently in a state of informal hostilities but are not in a state of declared war. That distinction matters at the international level. In the case of Gaza, Israel and Hamas were in a truce, until Hamas unilaterally broke…

Nations do not declare wars anymore, because wars are illegal since WW2. Quoting Wikipedia: > Since 1945, developments in international law such as the United Nations Charter, which prohibits both the threat and the use of force in international conflicts, have made declarations of war largely obsolete in international relations So since then, wars are now called "counter-terrorist operations", "peace enforcement ope…

Sure they do - but they tend to declare abstract "states of war" without a stated goal or timeline. Like the State of Israel, for example, on Oct 8.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#142

Post by raincom »

arp242 wrote: post #85
tptacek wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These takes are problematic because it's clear to most observers that the attacks were, by the standards set by ground combat in Fallujah, NATO air operations in Kunar Province, or operations against ISIL in Inherent Resolve, the pager/radio attacks were drastically more discriminating, and caused a tiny fraction of the noncombatant casualties. This, of course, is also a distorted standard capturing only NATO/aligned…

I think the bit that this misses is that the root of all the problems we've seen over the last few decades is that Israel keeps doing their settlement thing. In spite of decades of pretty much the entire rest of the world – including the US – saying they should not be doing that. I don't approve of Hezbollah or Hamas; but if you strip away the violence and Islamic extremism and all of that then the uncomfortable real…

Even if Israel gets rid of settlements in the West Bank, even If Israel goes back to pre-1967 borders, the Israel-Palestine conflict will not end. That's because Palestinians want a one-state solution, along with the return of Palestinian refugees, both the first gen and their descendants--and that's the real solution from the Palestinian side. Israel is never going to accept the real Palestinian solution.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#143

Post by aguaviva »

tptacek wrote: post #139
xfax wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hamas is a symptom of desperation. It certainly is not acting in the best interest of Gazans and they are suffering due to that. But on the other hand, diplomacy has not been an effective tool for Gazans and, as all signs indicate, it never will. Not at least until US withdraws its unconditional support for Israel. With status quo, Gazans have the choice to lie down and die or continue living under deplorable conditi…

I agree. Gazan civilians had no good options (though, as we've discovered, it was possible for things to get far worse for them than they had been, and I don't think it serves any purpose to sugarcoat that). Having said that: I don't want to get into 2024 Israeli policy with regards to Gaza, because with this ruling coalition who knows anything, but in the status quo ante of this attack Israel was not in fact slowly…

In the status quo ante of this attack Israel was not in fact slowly annexing the Gaza.

Not yet, as majority policy. But a sizable contingent is clamoring for exactly that (only they'd prefer it happen much more quickly):

  ‘It is doable’: 10 Likud MKs to attend conference calling for ‘resettling Gaza’
https://archive.ph/BPP5C

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#144

Post by tptacek »

raincom wrote: post #142
arp242 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the bit that this misses is that the root of all the problems we've seen over the last few decades is that Israel keeps doing their settlement thing. In spite of decades of pretty much the entire rest of the world – including the US – saying they should not be doing that. I don't approve of Hezbollah or Hamas; but if you strip away the violence and Islamic extremism and all of that then the uncomfortable real…

Even if Israel gets rid of settlements in the West Bank, even If Israel goes back to pre-1967 borders, the Israel-Palestine conflict will not end. That's because Palestinians want a one-state solution, along with the return of Palestinian refugees, both the first gen and their descendants--and that's the real solution from the Palestinian side. Israel is never going to accept the real Palestinian solution.

It would be more fair to note that both Hamas and the current governing coalition in Israel very clearly want a one-state solution. In fact, if you could roll Israel back to 1967 borders, the Palestinians would be in an enormously better position than they are today; politics, and, in particular, the logistics of dismantling what are in effect whole Israeli suburbs illegally situated in the West Bank, are what keep us from getting that done.†

It's difficult to really get a firm grasp on what "Palestinians" demand, because (1) the Palestinian Authority is deeply corrupt, generally not trusted by Palestinians, and actively sabotaged by the Netanyahu coalition, and (2) Hamas took power in 2006 and then for almost 20 years refused any self-determination for Gazan Palestinians, all the while being tacitly endorsed and financially abetted by the Netanyahu governing coalition.

If your claim is that Hamas is not interested in a realistic brokered solution of the Israel/Palestinian crisis, you're right. Hamas is a death cult propped up by the IRGC QF, truly one of the most despicable organizations on the planet. But I would strongly object to Hamas' worldview being imputed to Palestinians more generally; Palestinians are Hamas' primary victims.

† There are other logistical problems that would need to get hammered out in a "'67 borders" agreement, like what the corridor between Gaza and the West Bank would look like. To hear skeptical Israeli policy commentators talk about it, you'd also put the structure of Palestinian security forces on that list, but I think the last year has counterfeited that concern: you literally can't do worse than the status quo.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#145

Post by tptacek »

aguaviva wrote: post #143
tptacek wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Gazan civilians had no good options (though, as we've discovered, it was possible for things to get far worse for them than they had been, and I don't think it serves any purpose to sugarcoat that). Having said that: I don't want to get into 2024 Israeli policy with regards to Gaza, because with this ruling coalition who knows anything, but in the status quo ante of this attack Israel was not in fact slowly…

In the status quo ante of this attack Israel was not in fact slowly annexing the Gaza. Not yet, as majority policy. But a sizable contingent is clamoring for exactly that (only they'd prefer it happen much more quickly): ‘It is doable’: 10 Likud MKs to attend conference calling for ‘resettling Gaza’ https://archive.ph/BPP5C

Yes, but that is a response to the October 7 attacks, and this thread is about the antecedents of that attack.

(I question the seriousness of that movement; Likud under Ariel Sharon disengaged from Gaza and dismantled the settlements there, for practical reasons. It is not necessarily in the long-term interests of the Israeli state to settle in the Gaza Strip. But it doesn't matter for this thread either way. If it needs saying: all of Israeli's illegal settlement programs are bad.)

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#146

Post by jjfoooo4 »

tptacek wrote: post #57
CodexArcanum wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please elaborate on the measures taken to protect and warn civilians, or which specific military objectives the children hurt by those exploding pagers were in the close vicinity of.

Weeks out, with more facts settled, it does appear that this was one of the most (if not the most) precisely targeted attacks in the history of modern warfare, measured either by ratio of combatants to noncombatants injured, or by the measures used to target it (which included creating a fake pager distributor that sold legitimate pagers to legitimate sources and selectively delivered compromised pagers specifically…

That they are capable of this level of precision but choose not to use it in Gaza seems to imply that destroying and depopulating Gaza is the military goal there.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#147

Post by mrangle »

xfax wrote: post #134
bhouston wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the end we need a two-state solution with Israel and the Palestinians have self-determination and security. The faults of those involved are many, but the solution is known - it is a two-state solution, an end to armed attacks on Israeli civilians/homes and an end to the settlements. Thomas Friedman has great takes on this regularly in his NYTimes column: https://www.nytimes.com/column/thomas-l-friedman

A two-state solution is a fever dream if the occupier is uninterested in it. We’ve seen that repeatedly for the past 75+ years in actions and literal words. So the question is, if you were the subjugated population, what would you do?

Find a way to leave, at any material cost.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#148

Post by raincom »

tptacek wrote: post #144
raincom wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if Israel gets rid of settlements in the West Bank, even If Israel goes back to pre-1967 borders, the Israel-Palestine conflict will not end. That's because Palestinians want a one-state solution, along with the return of Palestinian refugees, both the first gen and their descendants--and that's the real solution from the Palestinian side. Israel is never going to accept the real Palestinian solution.

It would be more fair to note that both Hamas and the current governing coalition in Israel very clearly want a one-state solution. In fact, if you could roll Israel back to 1967 borders, the Palestinians would be in an enormously better position than they are today; politics, and, in particular, the logistics of dismantling what are in effect whole Israeli suburbs illegally situated in the West Bank, are what keep u…

Supporters of Palestinians, especially activists and students on campuses, in the West are not interested in the two-state solution. This position aligns with Arabs, who don't want a Jewish state in the Middle East. Hamas says it directly; others are not so direct, but one can infer their position through their actions.

One can say 'give voice and agency to those who want to make peace with the two-state solution'; then, make peace with these groups. I am not so confident on this adventure. Even the late Prof. Edward Said, who every postcolonial and postmodernist professor and student adore and worship, wanted a bi-national Israeli-Palestinian state, a variety of the one-state solution. Look at some version of a bi/tri-nationalism in the neighboring Lebanon: Hezbollah dictates the Lebanese govt.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#149

Post by xpl »

aguaviva wrote: post #141
xpl wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nations do not declare wars anymore, because wars are illegal since WW2. Quoting Wikipedia: > Since 1945, developments in international law such as the United Nations Charter, which prohibits both the threat and the use of force in international conflicts, have made declarations of war largely obsolete in international relations So since then, wars are now called "counter-terrorist operations", "peace enforcement ope…

Sure they do - but they tend to declare abstract "states of war" without a stated goal or timeline. Like the State of Israel, for example, on Oct 8.

Yeah, but that is for "internal consumption" and it doesn't affect any international relations, unlike "declaring war".

An interesting example is the U.S. which has been in a "state of war" (official term is "period of hostility") since 2001, a.k.a. "War on Terrorism" — and it still is! Which, by the way, gives a nice bonus of immediate citizenship for signing up for the military, without the need to wait for 5 years.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#150

Post by tptacek »

raincom wrote: post #148
tptacek wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be more fair to note that both Hamas and the current governing coalition in Israel very clearly want a one-state solution. In fact, if you could roll Israel back to 1967 borders, the Palestinians would be in an enormously better position than they are today; politics, and, in particular, the logistics of dismantling what are in effect whole Israeli suburbs illegally situated in the West Bank, are what keep u…

Supporters of Palestinians, especially activists and students on campuses, in the West are not interested in the two-state solution. This position aligns with Arabs, who don't want a Jewish state in the Middle East. Hamas says it directly; others are not so direct, but one can infer their position through their actions. One can say 'give voice and agency to those who want to make peace with the two-state solution'; t…

I'm not a campus activist. I don't care what campus activists say. Some campus activists have said truly dumb things; I won't impute them to Palestinians.
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