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How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

reuters.com

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Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#121
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding, after having learned more about this topic in the last year, is that this runs much deeper in the Israeli political establishment than Israel's image in the west would suggest. E.g., I found it notable that Likud's founding charter explicitly rejects a two-state solution, fully endorses the settlement policy and calls for an Israel "from the river to the sea" - in 1977! [1] (More recent updates to t…

I think it's uncontroversial that Likud opposes a 2-state solution, for what it's worth. I think you're going to find a lot of people taking Israel's side in the existential question of whether it should defend itself as a sovereign, and/or respond to mass-casualty attacks from paramilitary militias in territories it occupies, but far fewer people endorsing Israel's leadership. "I support Israel's right to exist but…

(Full disclaimer: I have no personal ties to the conflict and I get the largest part of my information about it from Haaretz, Wikipedia and Al Jazeera. So I definitely have a bias)

> "I support Israel's right to exist but Netanyahu belongs at the Hague" is a pretty common position.

I think Netanyahu (and Smotrich, Ben Gvir, etc) are a big part of the problem, but it's too simple to blame everything on them. The differences to the other political parties seem to be mostly in details that seem relatively irrelevant for non-Israelis: Basically whether to conduct the occupation and settlement with a good or a bad conscience and whether in service of a religious destiny or for mundane security reasons. But no one has any plan to end the occupation or even just to clear the settlements. The recent bill to reject any Palestinian state was voted in across almost all parties.

> But that doesn't mean it shouldn't respond to full-scale military attacks from neighboring near-peer militaries.

I think tallying up the morals of each side of this conflict is really unproductive, but in the spirit of just digging into the details here, I feel like it's worth pointing out that the details on Hezbollah's side of the scale are grim. Not in its conflict with Israel, but with the broader region, where it has killed civilians with great gusto.

Yeah, I don't want to exonerate Hezbollah (or Hamas for that matter). It's just that in this conflict, Hezbollah so far behaved entirely rational and predictable. Their attacks were calibrated to put pressure on Israel but nothing more - and their objective was clear to see. Israel could have easily achieved its objective of bringing back the inhabitants of the north by agreeing to one of the US-brokered ceasefire deals.

It is relatively obvious that Netanyahu wants to continue the war in Gaza at all costs and is rather starting another war than to hold the attacks.

The other reason is that with Israeli military operations, self-defense and conquest seem always be intertwined. I find it uncanny how quickly settlement movements for Gaza and Lebanon pop up during something that is ostensibly a war of self-defense. (Not even starting with the extremely dehumanizing "proposals" what to do with Gaza's population that are apparently freely discussed in Israel's civil society, such as the recent "General's plan")

I'd be more on board if the fight against Hezbollah and Hamas was conducted by an international force with UN mandate than by the IDF alone - and if at the same time we put some actual pressure on Israel to end the occupation, so there is an actual alternative for Palestinians to the terror groups.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#122
post #95
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Leon Panetta, the former head of the CIA, said that the indiscriminate nature of these attacks makes him consider these attacks to be a form of terrorism: This was the exact opposite of "indiscriminate". The Israelis blew up pagers belonging to members of a known terrorist organization. People love to try an claim that they're anti-Israel and not antisemitic, but no other country in the world would be held to this…

If a similar and equally large-scale attack was done by a nation at war with US, targeting US military command, would that be a low-casualty operation or an act of terrorism? And would it matter if the technical interpretation differed wildly from the general perception? For what it's worth, I consider both parties in their forever war to be irredeemable bastards. As I learned early on, the network of tunnels in Gaza…

If there is a declared state of war between two countries, than someone else doing what Israel did to Hezbollah would be considered a valid act of war.

The problem is that Israel and Hezbollah are currently in a state of informal hostilities but are not in a state of declared war. That distinction matters at the international level.

In the case of Gaza, Israel and Hamas were in a truce, until Hamas unilaterally broke that truce on October 7, 2023. It turns out Hamas had been using the most recent truce to build up its forces and plan those terrorist attacks, which is why Israel is unwilling to enter into a new truce. (And on a historical note, Hamas has unilaterally broken or violated every truce and peace treaty it has negotiated with Israel.) Given that the Gazan civilian population was openly sheltering and supporting the Hamas forces, the international rules of war hold that Gazan civilians are legitimate collateral damage so long as there was no intent by Israel to deliberately attack civilian targets. Importantly, Israel is formally at war with Hamas, so the legal framework is different from what happened with Hezbollah.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#123
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's uncontroversial that Likud opposes a 2-state solution, for what it's worth. I think you're going to find a lot of people taking Israel's side in the existential question of whether it should defend itself as a sovereign, and/or respond to mass-casualty attacks from paramilitary militias in territories it occupies, but far fewer people endorsing Israel's leadership. "I support Israel's right to exist but…

(Full disclaimer: I have no personal ties to the conflict and I get the largest part of my information about it from Haaretz, Wikipedia and Al Jazeera. So I definitely have a bias) > "I support Israel's right to exist but Netanyahu belongs at the Hague" is a pretty common position. I think Netanyahu (and Smotrich, Ben Gvir, etc) are a big part of the problem, but it's too simple to blame everything on them. The diffe…

No, Hezbollah has not behaved "entirely rational and predictable". They have indiscriminately fired rockets at civilian populations in northern Israel, often over a hundred in a single day, averaging dozens every day continuously for almost a year, killing principally (as you'd expect) civilians (ironically, many of them not Israeli Jewish citizens), in one case including half a youth football team.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#124

If these pager explosives were invisible to x-ray machines then hopefully the TSA has a way to detect them. Seems like a pretty clear attack vector.

It was lucky none of the thousands of pagers employed in this terror attack blew inside some airplane and made it much worse. It's dismaying we have a state doing this.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#125
post #2

So did Mossad listen to the pagers ? I mean, instead of putting a bomb inside, spying would make more sense to me...

Yes, the WaPo and NYT both reported that Mossad spent a fair amount of time eavesdropping on the communications between these two devices.

The eavesdropping played a significant role in the decision to detonate the devices.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#126
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the people who happened to be next to them when they went off? Collateral damage. Same as in any war. This discussion belies a naivete about how wars are fought. War--theconventional, legal, internationally-sanctioned kind--is horrible. The moment any side commits to war, it's committed to committing atrocities. You can't fight war without being shockingly cruel and inhumane. We have certain limits that have been i…

Are the Israeli civilians killed October 7th also collateral damage?

No, they were the intended targets of those attacks. The term "collateral" means "unintended".

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#127
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Full disclaimer: I have no personal ties to the conflict and I get the largest part of my information about it from Haaretz, Wikipedia and Al Jazeera. So I definitely have a bias) > "I support Israel's right to exist but Netanyahu belongs at the Hague" is a pretty common position. I think Netanyahu (and Smotrich, Ben Gvir, etc) are a big part of the problem, but it's too simple to blame everything on them. The diffe…

No, Hezbollah has not behaved "entirely rational and predictable". They have indiscriminately fired rockets at civilian populations in northern Israel, often over a hundred in a single day, averaging dozens every day continuously for almost a year, killing principally (as you'd expect) civilians (ironically, many of them not Israeli Jewish citizens), in one case including half a youth football team.

If "team A did bad thing X" is an argument for anything, could I counter that team B did X too, and more? You're complaining that Hezbollah kills civilians... So does the IDF.

Now if you tell me that one is intentional and the other one isn't the I know you're not being honest, because there's plenty of evidence that the IDF is really casual about collateral damage.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Hezbollah has not behaved "entirely rational and predictable". They have indiscriminately fired rockets at civilian populations in northern Israel, often over a hundred in a single day, averaging dozens every day continuously for almost a year, killing principally (as you'd expect) civilians (ironically, many of them not Israeli Jewish citizens), in one case including half a youth football team.

If "team A did bad thing X" is an argument for anything, could I counter that team B did X too, and more? You're complaining that Hezbollah kills civilians... So does the IDF. Now if you tell me that one is intentional and the other one isn't the I know you're not being honest, because there's plenty of evidence that the IDF is really casual about collateral damage.

That's not the argument. I stated it plainly upthread.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#129

Key components are 6 grams of white pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) and "highly flammable material" as a detonator. PETN was developed in 1906, and is accessible to more advanced hobby chemists. So we have explosive device that passes through airport security scanner. And can be made at home by dedicated individuals... What are the implications for air travel?

> we have explosive device that passes through airport security scanner I don't think it passes through modern American scanners--they can theoretically discriminate plastic explosives (and presumably detonators) from water, though whether it gets caught is a matter of TSA competence.

The explosive is completely sealed inside the battery casing. It's highly likely to be undetectable.

Part of the reason why this is one of those "cat out of the bag" type things.

Re: How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

#130
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hamas or Hezb target civilians more than the IDF Never claimed as much. The point is Hamas and Hezbollah explicitly target civilians. (The October 7th raid had a modest CCR of 2:1 inasmuch as there were 766 civilian and 273 security casualties [1]. Break down some of the raiding parties, however, and the CCR is much higher. Comparable to some of Israel's worst raids, or Russia's war in Chechnya.) > IDF has killed o…

You’re assuming every death on the 7th was by Hamas or other Gaza factions, which is false. And these abstractions are useless and only serve to obfuscate the horrors of war.

> You’re assuming every death on the 7th was by Hamas or other Gaza factions

We are rounding civilian casualties to integers. This is a necessarily inexact science.

> these abstractions are useless and only serve to obfuscate the horrors of war

I could not agree with you more.

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