Live data from Hacker News

Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

philip.greenspun.com

101–110 of 114 posts

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#101
Wow, this article is so wildly ignorant of the basic economics.

Let's start at the beginning. Depressions are caused by a slight increase in people's preference to hold onto cash, which causes a downward spiral where the economy slows and then people want to hold onto cash more.

The first thing you try to do in this instance is increase the money supply, but we've gone as far as we can go on that -- the Fed has sent the interest rate to zero and it can't go any lower.

So, as Keynes said, the second thing you try to do in that scenario is let government spending pick up the slack and take advantage of the productive capacity that isn't being used on anything to get the economy moving again.

Greenspun claims this won't work because "a lot more globalized today and there is much more competition among countries." First, we've only recently caught up to the levels of international integration we had during the first wave of globalization, starting in 1870. Second, countries don't compete with each other. The fundamental well-being of a country is determined by simply its domestic productivity. What would we be competing for?

He seems to suggest that we're competing for international investment dollars. But then why do you think government investment won't work? Why is international investment this magical thing we must attract to start businesses?

He claims that Japan's huge fiscal stimulus proves stimulus doesn't work. But in Japan, stimulus did work -- when it was tried. As the leading scholar wrote: "the 1995 stimulus package ... did result in solid growth in 1996, demonstrating that fiscal policy does work when it is tried. As on earlier occasions in the 1990s, however, the positive response to fiscal stimulus was undercut by fiscal contraction in 1996 and 1997."

See http://mediamatters.org/items/200812220005 for more.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#102
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The existing situation is this: there are standardized tests, teachers are sticking to the basics -- they have no choice since they've got to teach to the test like everyone else (lest your students score a percentage point lower than another teacher's students), students are doing poorly, students are passing anyway because of the enormous forces on teachers in the broken system. The standardized tests are part of w…

Wait, I'm confused: a) there are standardized tests b) students are passing anyway because of the enormous forces on teachers If the standardized tests from a) determine the grades, then how is b) possible? How can pressure on the teachers cause a student to pass if the teachers are not the ones assigning grades?

Sorry. To clarify, there are statewide standardized tests, which in turn end up resulting in department-wide (within a public school) standardized tests (a regular "chapter test", but the same one is given by all teachers in a given department).

When there's a state-mandated standardized test in, say, science, administration immediately jumps on it and says, "Ok! Now we know what our science tests should look like!" and in turn, science teachers must all toe the line, give tests that look just like the state standardized test, and teach to those tests. If Mr. A's students score lower than Mrs. B's students (and administration looks very closely at these test results), [sarcasm] then Mrs. B must be the better teacher! [/sarcasm]

Students "pass" their own class's chapter tests, partly due to teachers just passing them for the reasons previously explained, but also partly because they've been prepped and groomed specifically to pass the test.

Students "pass" the state-wide standardized tests partly because that's what they've been prepped for, and partly because of the nature of standardized testing. Think about it: if everyone does poorly on a state-wide standardized test, the state administrators making the test assume they've made it too difficult, and so water it down. Makes sense also because they want their state to compare favorably with other states. But regardless, what they want is that bell curve. They want it bad. They want to point to the districts on the low side of the bell curve, tell them to improve, and believe they've done something useful.

In turn, local districts want their own bell curves. They want to point to teachers with students on the low side of that bell curve, eliminate them (or otherwise reprimand them), and believe that they've done something useful.

Then net result of all this for the students is that they become pretty good at passing standardized tests but not terribly good at critical thinking. In class, teachers will hear over and over again from students, "will this be on the test?". The students crave bytes of information that sound like a multiple choice question with the answer attached, because that's the sort of thing that leads to success on tests.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#103
post #97
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I'm asking for evidence of school districts that are both well-funded and well-managed, using (for instance) the Charity Navigator definition of well-managed (admin and fundraising costs kept to under N% of program expenditures). If there are a bunch of them, maybe I'd give more weight to your argument. For the time being, I just think about the fact that teachers in these supposedly-overfunded school distric…

"I guess I'm asking for evidence of school districts that are both well-funded and well-managed, using (for instance) the Charity Navigator definition of well-managed (admin and fundraising costs kept to under N% of program expenditures)." That criterion has the same problem with education as it does with charitable organizations: it decouples money spent from results achieved. Maybe the answer to more effective scho…

I get that "money spent" does not equal "results achieved". But: in many of the worst cases where money hasn't equalled results, the cause has been money misspent on administration: bloated staff, unreasonable compensation, new buildings. So while the Charity Navigator definition may not be perfect, it's a very solid heuristic. For instance, it detects the DC school system.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, I'm confused: a) there are standardized tests b) students are passing anyway because of the enormous forces on teachers If the standardized tests from a) determine the grades, then how is b) possible? How can pressure on the teachers cause a student to pass if the teachers are not the ones assigning grades?

Sorry. To clarify, there are statewide standardized tests, which in turn end up resulting in department-wide (within a public school) standardized tests (a regular "chapter test", but the same one is given by all teachers in a given department). When there's a state-mandated standardized test in, say, science, administration immediately jumps on it and says, "Ok! Now we know what our science tests should look like!"…

One last comment on this and then I'll stop.

The net result on teaching staff is that the ones who teach critical thinking skills eventually tend to get washed out of the system. Teaching critical thinking skills is harder, the skill is harder for students to acquire (they have to work for it!), it takes more time, assessment is less cut and dried, and there's less payback visible on those standardized tests.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, I'm confused: a) there are standardized tests b) students are passing anyway because of the enormous forces on teachers If the standardized tests from a) determine the grades, then how is b) possible? How can pressure on the teachers cause a student to pass if the teachers are not the ones assigning grades?

Sorry. To clarify, there are statewide standardized tests, which in turn end up resulting in department-wide (within a public school) standardized tests (a regular "chapter test", but the same one is given by all teachers in a given department). When there's a state-mandated standardized test in, say, science, administration immediately jumps on it and says, "Ok! Now we know what our science tests should look like!"…

Students "pass" their own class's chapter tests, partly due to teachers just passing them for the reasons previously explained, but also partly because they've been prepped and groomed specifically to pass the test.

So the chapter tests aren't standardized.

As I said, "standardized tests" and "race to the bottom" are incompatible.

Perhaps the current standardized tests are a poor measure of performance. On this matter, I can't comment without seeing the tests. From what you describe, they sound easy to game. If that is the case, then fix the tests.

I can't see any reason why standardized tests would be worse than non-standardized ones. Due to economies of scale (more data, you can hire a statistician to help, and test designers have time to work on i) and a decent selection process (don't put the worst teachers in charge of designing the test), I see compelling reasons why standardized tests would be better than the average individualized test.

Additionally, teachers do not have the ability to "race to the bottom". Perhaps the floor set by the tests is too low, but eliminating the floor entirely won't fix that.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#106
post #100
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a tough competition for these civil servant jobs Because they are massively, massively corrupt. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_co... "For nine consecutive years the EU court of auditors has refused to sign off the budget. The numbers are huge. The annual EC budget is around ¤100 billion (£65 billion). The auditors cannot clear 95 per cent of that. We simply cannot tell what is happ…

Do you really believe that they could get away with 95% fraudulent spending? That nobody would notice 95 billion Euro corruption? Or to put it another way, if this is true, it means that they are able to run real EC functions with just 5 billion Euro budget. That would quite efficient indeed.

Nah, it just means (for example) instead of putting function X out to tender, they just gave it to a friend or a family member. The work still gets done, it just could just be done quicker/cheaper/better with more transparency. I don't believe it's literally the case that Neil Kinnock is socking away a billion Euros a year into his Swiss bank account. Interesting to note that practically his entire family are EC employees tho'.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#107
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it matters as much how great a percentage of the GDP government spends, so much as how it is spent. Is the government spending money in ways that produce net positive social return? This becomes much harder as the absolute size of the bureaucracy grows. It is harder to manage a multi-trillion dollar budget than it is to manage Sweden. The United States has a large amount of military spending and redunda…

You're hinting at a very interesting problem here: The absolute size of bureaucracy. It seems ( I have no data to back this up) that the efficiency of bureaucracy decreases exponentially with it's size. This is obviously a bigger problem for large countries such as the US. There are advantages to size (setting the global agenda, advantages in areas where absolute amounts of money matter (for instance military - your…

I agree with your first point, but I'm having trouble seeing the "advantages to size" you speak of, at least on that scale. Things like "setting the global agenda" or "military is twice as good" sound like advantages to the bureaucracy itself, not to the people it consists of. (Per your examples: at no point during my lifetime did I feel that any President spoke for me, nor did I feel our gigantic military made me any safer.)

I've seen this commercially, too: large company buys small-medium company because it's good for both companies, even though it's demonstrably bad for employees and products of both. It's a tail-wags-dog situation.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry. To clarify, there are statewide standardized tests, which in turn end up resulting in department-wide (within a public school) standardized tests (a regular "chapter test", but the same one is given by all teachers in a given department). When there's a state-mandated standardized test in, say, science, administration immediately jumps on it and says, "Ok! Now we know what our science tests should look like!"…

Students "pass" their own class's chapter tests, partly due to teachers just passing them for the reasons previously explained, but also partly because they've been prepped and groomed specifically to pass the test. So the chapter tests aren't standardized. As I said, "standardized tests" and "race to the bottom" are incompatible. Perhaps the current standardized tests are a poor measure of performance. On this matte…

yf, I'd glad you're interested. I skipped a few details in my OP thinking no one would be interested, yet here you are.

The state standardized tests are pretty long, but not long enough to make all your tests from. Teachers have to give tests every few weeks (partly because students will forget things after too long, but also because the administration demands assessments, assessments, and more assessments). So what happens is, some chapter tests are standardized. The students do ok on these, since they've been prepped over and over for them. However, teachers need to make their own tests too, of course, and these were the ones I was originally referring to (where, if you require critical thinking, too many students fail).

> Perhaps the current standardized tests are a poor measure of performance.

They are a good measure of how well students perform on standardized tests.

> I can't see any reason why standardized tests would be worse than non-standardized ones.

Good teachers know how to ask good questions. Sometimes those questions change depending upon the students, any extra/different material covered in class, and so on. Regardless, good teachers can ask students to perform critical thinking and can tell if the student can really do it or not -- but it takes time. Administrators want lots of assessments. So many that good teachers will drown under all the grading if they are making students do real critical thinking and providing detailed assessments of it all.

> Additionally, teachers do not have the ability to "race to the bottom".

The forces in place now are resulting in bad patterns. Patterns like good teachers leaving, and the only ones staying are the ones willing to play the game and do all the assessments. "Race to the bottom" means teachers becoming robots who

* cover the required material ("electricity is movement of electrons!"),

* assign homework on it ("what is electricity?"),

* quiz on it ("is electricity, a. movement of protons, b. movement of neutrons, c..."),

* review it ("does everyone remember what electricity is?")

* test on it ("what is electricity? a. movement of electrons b. ..."),

then move on to the next topic. That's what standardized testing gets you and why it's a race to the bottom: find teachers who can shovel the most of that to the most students in the shortest amount of time and get the highest scores.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#109
post #107
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're hinting at a very interesting problem here: The absolute size of bureaucracy. It seems ( I have no data to back this up) that the efficiency of bureaucracy decreases exponentially with it's size. This is obviously a bigger problem for large countries such as the US. There are advantages to size (setting the global agenda, advantages in areas where absolute amounts of money matter (for instance military - your…

I agree with your first point, but I'm having trouble seeing the "advantages to size" you speak of, at least on that scale. Things like "setting the global agenda" or "military is twice as good" sound like advantages to the bureaucracy itself, not to the people it consists of. (Per your examples: at no point during my lifetime did I feel that any President spoke for me, nor did I feel our gigantic military made me an…

Sorry, rereading the comment I see that it could have been clearer.

What I was talking about is what economists call a true public service. This is a service that doesn't diminish in value when you add more users - a light tower is the classic example: The lighttower is as good a service to a ship whether it is the only one using it or there are a thousand others. Webpages are another good example.

Large countries have an advantage here: It costs the same to build a lighttower whether you are the US or Lichtenstein.

The military might have been a bad example though...

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#110
post #74
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I'm asking for evidence of school districts that are both well-funded and well-managed, using (for instance) the Charity Navigator definition of well-managed (admin and fundraising costs kept to under N% of program expenditures). If there are a bunch of them, maybe I'd give more weight to your argument. For the time being, I just think about the fact that teachers in these supposedly-overfunded school distric…

If anything, it's almost obvious that almost all American public schools are, in general, "underfunded". Part of having a free market in labor (such as we have) means that, if you're trying to attract people to take on a particular position, you need to offer enough to lure them away from their other options. Public school teachers have good job security and benefits (after awhile), but the starting salary is usually…

> Once you've figured out what it'd cost, then you can start figuring out "is it worth it?"

There's more to it than money. Public school teaching is currently a lousy job for a number of reasons:

* very large amounts of work to take home

* having to deal with complaints from parents and administrators if you raise the rigor of your classes

* if you're male, the possibility of losing your career if a female student decides to lie and say you did something wrong

* the monotony of only a small portion of your work being actually academic-related. Most of the work is babysitting-style work or else administrative work. For people who like to work with their minds, this is a big deal and a reason against going into teaching.

Also, I don't know where you're getting your numbers from. Who (non-teachers) is making these enormous salaries you quote? Those are big numbers.

Post reply on HN