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Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

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Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#91
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if people responded to you instead of downvoting silently. Thank you for the information. It's also worth noting the Great Barrier Reef is fairly new (6-8k years old). It came to be from the sea rise of the Last Glacial Maximum 20k years ago.

Information is fine, overconfident denialist commentary earns a downvote. When you see a comment to the effect of "The self-proclaimed experts are wrong! I know the truth," you should heavily discount the conclusions it draws. Just because the mechanism of resurgence is unknown does not mean that all previous science on the topic is invalidated. It can simultaneously be true that ocean warming is devastating the Grea…

> Just because the mechanism of resurgence is unknown does not mean that all previous science on the topic is invalidated.

This is really the core of the problem. It's why the downvoters are wrong and why it's worth debating the topic here, because it's really a much wider problem than corals or climate.

What government employees have done so far wasn't actually science and they aren't really experts. It was presented to the public as science, it was funded from science budgets, it has the superficial look of science, but it wasn't science. It was merely data collection, followed by wild theorizing based on nothing, followed by political lobbying. It wasn't even extrapolation, as there was no trend to extrapolate!

That isn't how the scientific method is supposed to work. Scientists are supposed to form a hypothesis, gather data that could falsify the hypothesis, publish it, then let others replicate it and so on, until we are certain enough we understand the underlying system to proclaim it a theory. Then you can go to politicians and demand money or changes to laws.

The complete lack of scientific method here is why reef ... people ... I don't want to give them the title of "scientist" ... have managed to not only seriously embarrass themselves but undermine confidence in all ecology and climatology. They had no basis on which to claim that CO2 induced warming was killing corals. The data simply did not fit that hypothesis at any point. Yet by tying their field to climate change they unlocked media interest and a much greater flow of money. They took the easy, tempting path instead of the right path and it is not only completely legitimate but a moral imperative to point out their dishonesty. Their own colleagues and institutional supervisors aren't doing it, so other people have to. If nobody does then this is how science dies, people! When anyone can call themselves a scientist despite not doing science, then eventually the whole concept of science itself will be seen as a discredited joke. That's how dark ages happen. Everyone should be calling out those who claim high confidence in their predictions whilst not having done the work to deserve that confidence.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#92

Perhaps a dumb question, but wouldn't we expect the rise in ocean temperatures to be cause nature to be doing this selective breeding right now?

Yes we would, and certainly there already is evolutionary pressure. This is just putting our finger on the scale knowing what's coming.

What is "fast enough" is in the eye of the beholder, life doesn't really care about boom and bust cycles or extinctions, but people really don't like change so we can do it faster and do a bit of reef gardening.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#93
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can somebody explain to me why this is apparently being downvoted ? Is Richard Lenski very far from the consensus of his field ? Scientific dishonesty ?

I imagine it's because 73k generations of bacteria takes a lot less time than 73k generations of coral or other larger organisms.

It's important that people understand that the mechanism of evolution has been conclusively demonstrated in a laboratory within a single researcher's lifespan.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It may be possible that this recent spike in growth indicates that there is a strong recovery, but looking at the data it also seems inarguable the ecosystem has become highly unstable as well over the past 20 years Could you expand on how the recent explosive growth is unstable and fits with the predictions that the coral is dying? And GPs post was evidence based, your interpretations were not, they were subjectiv…

Explosive growth is generally speaking not stable. I will defer to the dictionary definition of stable. I'm just using words how they are defined. From an ecosystem perspective, simple "coral coverage" is not a good enough metric to indicate that the coral reef is healthy. We also need to understand the biodiversity, is one coral taking over because it is better adapted and creating a monoculture? It's not clear. I m…

They tried the "but what about biodiversity" argument back in 2020 when the regrowth started.

It is automatically true that in an ecosystem that experiences a population decline, when the population starts growing again the subtypes that grow fastest will become more common than those which grow slower, and thus there will be a temporary decline in biodiversity. That doesn't indicate a problem of any kind. It's just the natural state of affairs.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#95

I’ve been scuba diving for 20 years and I’ve seen the devastation first hand. Once healthy eco systems, teeming with life, just completely wiped out. It’s heartbreaking. Corals grow so slowly, this might improve things 100-200 years from now, which is not nothing, but no one should delude themselves into thinking this is a solution. The fish that depend on these reefs will not be able to wait 100 generations for us t…

Have you stopped scuba diving? Aren't you concerned that your scuba diving contributes to the destruction?

I have stopped traveling to dive, but because it's too sad, not because I was concerned about destroying the ecosystem by viewing it. I don't touch the reef, I don't fin near coral, I can hold my buoyancy quite well... but the same can't be said for many divers.

That said, there is a factor for people that if something is out of sight, it's out of mind. Being involved with the ecosystem really is the only way I've seen protection of it happen, people just tend not to try to protect something they aren't engaged with. I'd rather everyone dove, even if that brought traffic to certain sites up, because I think they'd make the macro changes we need to make to preserve things while accepting the micro change in boat fuel use or reef traffic, or whatever risks you're thinking of. Seeing a fish trying to escape from a plastic bag is a sobering experience, you only need to see it once.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While you bring forward interesting data, I believe your view is uncharitable of the motives behind people wanting to protect coral reefs also you don't account for your own hindsight. Maybe a more charitable interpretation is that nobody really understood why there was such a massive drop and climate change was the most likely explanation so they went about warning about it given how important they are to their ecos…

The incentives here are pretty straightforward and plenty of people within academic fields are willing to admit what kind of distortions they create. Look at any HN discussion on academic fraud and you'll find discussions from people who are or were scientists where they tell similar stories. Climate change wasn't the most likely explanation for the big drop. To make that explanation work you have to hypothesize a lo…

Thanks for the elaboration.

That part left unconvinced though:

> If you want to posit some sort of cliff-edge response [...] There's no reason a-priori to believe that climate change kills corals given that they've survived hundreds of millions of years

I am actually realizing that you are probably talking about the effects of C02 levels in the oceans while I was actually thinking about the global rise in temperature which IIUC has seen a kind of cliff-edge change. And IIRC, ocean warmth is what I have read is threatening coral reefs, so I am bit lost here.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for the clarification. Some may interpret "not stable" meaning that it could be detrimental to it's life, not just the textbook velocity definition. Could you answer the second part of my question: > "How does explosive growth fit with the predictions that the coral is dying?" To your statement: > "We also need to understand the biodiversity, is one coral taking over because it is better adapted and creatin…

Explosive growth does not happen in a vacuum. Sometimes it's due to a pre-existing boom and bust cycle (eg lynx and hares, rabbits and wolves, etc). Sometimes it's due to the elimination of key species or ecological instability (eg hares in australia with no predators, boom of sea urchins in california, cuttlefish booming due to overfishing), or maybe it's something completely different altogether. Given that there i…

The GBR is not that old, and it experienced a major boom during it's creation, obviously.

We really don't have enough data to rule anything out as we weren't tracking it that long relatively to say for sure. We also don't know all the variables.

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#98

Perhaps a dumb question, but wouldn't we expect the rise in ocean temperatures to be cause nature to be doing this selective breeding right now?

Nature doesn't do selective breeding. "Survival of the fittest" means "whatever doesn't die, wins." First you need things capable of not dying in x circumstances. After adversity kills everything else, you have the "winners." This will incline species to develop tolerance over time, usually several generations. Human caused climate change is happening on a timescale that isn't very supportive of that process.

At least some corals must be able to survive the current transformation? At least some past extinction events must've been very abrupt and things like corals lived through that?

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you stopped scuba diving? Aren't you concerned that your scuba diving contributes to the destruction?

I have stopped traveling to dive, but because it's too sad, not because I was concerned about destroying the ecosystem by viewing it. I don't touch the reef, I don't fin near coral, I can hold my buoyancy quite well... but the same can't be said for many divers. That said, there is a factor for people that if something is out of sight, it's out of mind. Being involved with the ecosystem really is the only way I've se…

Electric drones could suffice if you still want people to be able to view it up close.

There's plenty of nature reserves that have tourism limitations for the very reason that high traffic has negative effects.

The best thing for the reefs in Thailand was Covid (ie, the absence of people)

Re: Scientists successfully breed corals to improve their heat tolerance

#100
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you stopped scuba diving? Aren't you concerned that your scuba diving contributes to the destruction?

Why would it? I’m a scuba diver and I don’t pour hot water on corals. My primary function for diving is to protect the kelp forest where I usually dive by removing sea urchins, whose population has exploded, killing the kelp. This is done in conjunction with the department of fish and wildlife. Any scuba diver knows never to touch the coral, the ground, or anything like that. Fairly simple

Added C02 from boats may have an effect. And people may know not to touch it, and you may not, but that doesn't mean other's don't.

The best way not to effect nature is to not interact with it.

Obviously that's not 100% possible nor pleasurable, but for more sensitive systems, it's more necessary.

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