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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#111

Post by etrautmann »

kristopolous wrote: post #22

I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars. Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers game as new electric becomes cost competitive with used gas. That's how the pragmatic adoption will happen. You don't need, for instance, catalytic converters or a bunch of other expensive, low tolerance parts and since the fuel storage is electricity, new chem…

Inductive road charging is pretty hard to imagine being feasible. The efficiency of inductive charging at a standoff distance while moving at high speed will be abysmal. About as hard to conceive of as UBeam working out.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#112

Post by tga »

itsoktocry wrote: post #104
louwrentius wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a solution for a problem that won’t exist. Charing for 30 minutes isn’t a real issue after a long drive. Replacing individual battery modules will become cheap enough it will extend the life of battery packs enough. And once the whole battery needs replacing it will be ok financially.

The only people who say "I don't mind stopping for 30 minutes to charge!" are people who dont drive much. For people who travel by car a lot, that's insane. I can't imagine being forced to hang out at a truck stop for 30 minutes rather than getting back on the road.

Can you imagine riding a horse or walking to your destination? Because that's the alternative if cheap oil isn't readily available anymore.

Or maybe you'd rather imagine having to migrate because your city is under water and there is no more food, due to changing climate?

Your convenience is beside the point, society will adapt.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#113

Post by moffkalast »

speedgoose wrote: post #84
moffkalast wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be, but BYD has made it work reliably and enables you to do battery-as-a-service which actually makes a lot of sense for EVs, since that's usually the lifetime limitation. Second hand EVs become actually viable that way. Plus, fast charging wears out the battery sooner, reducing car lifetime even further. Not very cashmoney from an ecological nor an actual cash money perspective. If you're gonna spend 2x the…

Renault also did battery as a service a decade ago, with some battery swaps. The maths didn't work at the time but maybe BYD and NIO will this time. Agree that fast charging wears the battery more, but it's mostly fine. Cars are built to be used and it's better to fast charge current gen batteries when you need it than waiting for better technology while driving an ICE car.

> Renault

> a decade ago

Well there was also that GM EV1 that didn't work out in 1996, I guess that's it for EV, wrap it up folks.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#114

Post by usrusr »

simmerup wrote: post #72
usrusr wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe GP might be taking about an add-on, not a substitute for the existing battery. Perhaps a tiny trailer hooked up to a standardized coupling that you rent when you are venturing out on something that's more than an hour of driving. It would mostly be a challenge for mechanical engineers, to come up with some solution that does not ruin driving characteristics too. Perhaps even involving some heavily computeri…

You say won’t happen, but there are Chinese companies that offer you different size batteries based on need. Going cross country? Swap out for a massive battery. Just doing city runs? Get the smaller lighter cheaper battery

Are they profitable though? Sounds like a painful investment trap, where the company can always declare projections of a happy future once a certain threshold would be reached in terms of installed base of compatible cars with interchangeable batteries, and every time growth in installed base starts to visibly miss the optimistic prognosis they can say "uncle" and force a reset by introducing some new incompatible format "this time it will be better, need more money, now!"

(I know nothing about how intra China VC works or does not work, but battery swap schemes sound like an effective capital trap - note that those traps tend to work best when even the ones setting them up don't recognize their nature, I'm not accusing anyone on doing it on purpose!)

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#115

Post by pariahHN »

itsoktocry wrote: post #104
louwrentius wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a solution for a problem that won’t exist. Charing for 30 minutes isn’t a real issue after a long drive. Replacing individual battery modules will become cheap enough it will extend the life of battery packs enough. And once the whole battery needs replacing it will be ok financially.

The only people who say "I don't mind stopping for 30 minutes to charge!" are people who dont drive much. For people who travel by car a lot, that's insane. I can't imagine being forced to hang out at a truck stop for 30 minutes rather than getting back on the road.

Do you stop for food? Buccee's is already half restaurant and targets long distance drivers. Charge yourself while charging your vehicle. Many suburban gas stations have some form of food service attached as well.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#116

Post by 4b11b4 »

Ekaros wrote: post #103

So will this even further destroy resale values of current EVs? As batteries are major component of price so drop in their price means drop in general of the price. Increasing depreciation even further...

Yes, think of them as phones

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#117

Post by whatever1 »

9dev wrote: post #65
whatever1 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you drive 10km per day the big advantage of long range is that you don't have to refuel/recharge frequently.

Yeah, but as it turns out our planet can’t sustain that model of consumption. The challenging technology requires you to insert a plug at night. Is that really that tough of a sale?

Yes, because the majority of people dont leave in the suburbia with their own garage. People leave either in apartments with shared parking that may have like 2-3 charging spots, or they just street-park and they have 0 charging spots. It is very annoying to have to search and fight for a working power plug multiple times per week.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#118

Post by speedgoose »

itsoktocry wrote: post #106
speedgoose wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source about “exclusively“?

Have you looked at the taxes versus incentives for EVs vs ICEs in Norway? If you need a new car and one is triple the cost (because the other is exempt from fees) what are you going to buy? But yeah, it's for the environment, surely. Reverse the policy and see what happens.

I agree it's a strong incentive, but I'm not sure it's the only one. One example was during the cold wave last winter. ICE owners struggled quite a bit more than EV owners. You also have the problem that ICE vehicles are quite slow and laggy, unless you spend a lot of money on performance ICE vehicles but then they usually tend to be loud and uncomfortable.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#119

Post by oliwarner »

MrHamburger wrote: post #99
oliwarner wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but no, it can. ICE vehicles have hundreds of CAN bus or SPE -networked devices that feed into an MCU that can refuse to work if they're not first-party devices. This isn't something novel to EV, at all.

Changing a head gasket will be detected by what exactly? Rebuilding your failed transmission (the wheels inside) will be detected by which sensor?

I didn't say there weren't also parts that aren't on a communication network, in both types of car. This is a silly line of argument.

It's no easier, or harder: There are components in both systems that rely on network communication which could easily be vendor-locked by a central computer.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#120

Post by manmal »

kristopolous wrote: post #86
manmal wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying a new EV will ever be cost competitive with a used gas car? If so, I disagree, unless heavy penalties are imposed on using an ICE.

There's already sub $10,000 conventional form factor EVs such as https://electrek.co/2024/03/06/byd-launches-cheaper-seagull-... And then there's the immensely popular $4,000 Wuling Hongguang Mini EV https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV Meanwhile the average used car in the USA is $25,000 https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/when-to-bu... So this is already a reality, we're just livin…

A used Dacia ICE is quasi unbeatable, you just can’t compare apples with oranges.
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