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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#101

Post by itsoktocry »

kristopolous wrote: post #22

I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars. Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers game as new electric becomes cost competitive with used gas. That's how the pragmatic adoption will happen. You don't need, for instance, catalytic converters or a bunch of other expensive, low tolerance parts and since the fuel storage is electricity, new chem…

>I've been calling this shot for years

You and literally millions of people. It was obvious to anyne paying attention.

What was ludicrous, then as now, were the people saying Tesla was going to bankrupt every car company. Instead, if it wasn't for tariffs, the Chinese manufacturers would be eating everyone's lunch.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#102

Post by itsoktocry »

kristopolous wrote: post #86
manmal wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying a new EV will ever be cost competitive with a used gas car? If so, I disagree, unless heavy penalties are imposed on using an ICE.

There's already sub $10,000 conventional form factor EVs such as https://electrek.co/2024/03/06/byd-launches-cheaper-seagull-... And then there's the immensely popular $4,000 Wuling Hongguang Mini EV https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV Meanwhile the average used car in the USA is $25,000 https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/when-to-bu... So this is already a reality, we're just livin…

Yes because those have features we want in cars.

Do you think the engine is what makes a car expensive? Building a $10k ICE car wouldn't be difficult.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#104

Post by itsoktocry »

louwrentius wrote: post #39
mulperi wrote: post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

It’s a solution for a problem that won’t exist. Charing for 30 minutes isn’t a real issue after a long drive. Replacing individual battery modules will become cheap enough it will extend the life of battery packs enough. And once the whole battery needs replacing it will be ok financially.

The only people who say "I don't mind stopping for 30 minutes to charge!" are people who dont drive much. For people who travel by car a lot, that's insane.

I can't imagine being forced to hang out at a truck stop for 30 minutes rather than getting back on the road.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#105

Post by Ekaros »

carlmr wrote: post #55
davedx wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh I much prefer my Model 3 to my wife’s Mach-E because of the longer range it has. Even with fast chargers on the motorway it’s inconvenient to have to stop regularly to charge and delays your journey. 450km is nice for the Netherlands; if I had 500-600km range then I’d only ever need to charge at home which is way better.

For me 500km range is also the sweet spot. But it needs to be real range, like including heating in winter or AC in summer. And while I only usually drive 300-350km in one piece, I don't want to buy a car where I have to fear that a drive of this sort ends up waiting to be towed because of battery degradation (500km will realistically be 450km in a few years), or because I missed the last charging station or got stuc…

Real range at motorway speed that is 120km/h in summer. My current cheap ICE has atleast 450 km total including 350 km or so at 120. Which to me would be sweet spot. I could get to nearest big cities and airports there and then back. And only have to think refuelling or charging in couple of days after.

In the end that is only two about 2 hour drive stints. And really spending time on those stints instead of getting to destination or being home later...

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#106

Post by itsoktocry »

speedgoose wrote: post #83
closewith wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Norway is an absolute outlier, driven exclusively by tax incentives. In the rest of the EEA, EVs sales are plummeting. https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations...

Do you have a source about “exclusively“?

Have you looked at the taxes versus incentives for EVs vs ICEs in Norway? If you need a new car and one is triple the cost (because the other is exempt from fees) what are you going to buy?

But yeah, it's for the environment, surely. Reverse the policy and see what happens.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#107

Post by itsoktocry »

9dev wrote: post #46
AmericanChopper wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

It’s definitely a hyperbole number I made up. The point is that the technology isn’t equal or better, but different . It has other constraints and capabilities, but pretending an engine is an engine as long as the hood is closed gets us in the current situation where car builders struggle to recreate ICEs, but electric, consumers are never satisfied because they have wrong expectations, and regulators don’t ensure th…

People keep extolling EVs as being "low maintenance", but I'm not sure the data bears that out. They have all kinds of issues, just different ones.

I consider my ICE low maintenance, too. Semi-annual service, brakes and tires as needed. How much better are EVs?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#108

Post by itsoktocry »

louwrentius wrote: post #49
AmericanChopper wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

I think it’s unreasonable for people to think everything has to be business as usual whereas the true cost of a galon of fuel should have been 50 dollars if we facor in the environmental cost. I think I don’t like that people see consumption as a birthright, and pretend there aren’t any consequences.

Lol fuel would be dirt cheap if we removed taxes.

Consumption is my birthright. You can do whatever you want.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#109

Post by itsoktocry »

JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B wrote: post #85
closewith wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also in Ireland and while 400km might get you anywhere in the country, it won't get you home. Fast charging here is more expensive than petrol (over twice as much per km in many cases), the charging infrastructure is not reliable, and it's very easily overwhelmed. After the All Ireland semi-final this year, there were multi-hour queues for fast chargers on the M7. Multi-minute queues for petrol. This is reflected…

I remember when the major advantage of EVs were “you won’t pay for gas anymore.” And now it switched to “well, it’s 10% cheaper than gas but the car itself is 3 times more expensive.” I don’t understand how they expect poor people to buy these massively.

It was always subsidized.

Been saying this forever: most of the cost of gasoline are "road taxes". You think the government is just to let that revenue disappear as people shift to EV usage? No, your EV will be just as expensive to operate, they will add taxes to your charger.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#110

Post by closewith »

itsoktocry wrote: post #109
JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when the major advantage of EVs were “you won’t pay for gas anymore.” And now it switched to “well, it’s 10% cheaper than gas but the car itself is 3 times more expensive.” I don’t understand how they expect poor people to buy these massively.

It was always subsidized. Been saying this forever: most of the cost of gasoline are "road taxes". You think the government is just to let that revenue disappear as people shift to EV usage? No, your EV will be just as expensive to operate, they will add taxes to your charger.

In Ireland, that has not yet happened. Excise duties are extremely high on petrol and diesel and EV charging has none. However, fast charging is already more expensive.

Part of this is that EVs are much more expensive than the average car (over the whole fleet - new cars are much closer in price), and so EV drivers are self-selected to be wealthier, therefore willing to pay more. Another factor is the lack of competition and alternatives, especially at motorway petrol stations.

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