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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#51
post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

This would make the cars significantly more expensive and heavier, negating any advantage.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#52

I've been calling this shot for years. The cost optimization runway for EVs is much longer than for gas cars. Their adoption will eventually be a pure numbers game as new electric becomes cost competitive with used gas. That's how the pragmatic adoption will happen. You don't need, for instance, catalytic converters or a bunch of other expensive, low tolerance parts and since the fuel storage is electricity, new chem…

Yes, about 2000 moving parts in a combustion engine compared to 20 in an electric motor. The only reason ICE cars are comparable in price is the 100 years of supply chain competition.

EVs will win, but gas and diesel will persist for a long time in niches (enthusiasts, long-haul towing).

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#53
post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermar…

some places have a couple of chargers, which is nowhere close to "the whole parking lot"

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers. I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

"fast chargers." Or contact less, constant charging at traffic lights, during parking, on the highway. I'm sure there are people in 1900 who said, "Cars will never work, because I need to by petroleum in a pharmacy!" ignoring how technology will progress. If you had told them, there will be a "gas station" everywhere, those people would have called you crazy.

How does this relate at all to what you're responding to?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#55
post #10
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think James May made a great point when he said it's not about range, it's about quick and ubiquitous charging. I wouldn't mind if my vehicle could only travel 300km... if I could have the confidence I'd be able to stop and top it up in just a couple of minutes no matter where I was. Faster charging would really make all the difference.

Eh I much prefer my Model 3 to my wife’s Mach-E because of the longer range it has. Even with fast chargers on the motorway it’s inconvenient to have to stop regularly to charge and delays your journey. 450km is nice for the Netherlands; if I had 500-600km range then I’d only ever need to charge at home which is way better.

For me 500km range is also the sweet spot. But it needs to be real range, like including heating in winter or AC in summer.

And while I only usually drive 300-350km in one piece, I don't want to buy a car where I have to fear that a drive of this sort ends up waiting to be towed because of battery degradation (500km will realistically be 450km in a few years), or because I missed the last charging station or got stuck in traffic with heating running, and the remaining few km dwindle in front of me.

It's rational to fear your phone being under 20% when you still need it. It's just as rational to have 20% buffer when charging your car battery.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#56
post #6
post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

What % of cars have this range? Not your diesel f150, the real cars real people with real everyday lives drive My Hyundai i30 has a 600km range, max.

A diesel F150 will easily do 1,000km+ on a full tank.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a solution for a problem that won’t exist. Charing for 30 minutes isn’t a real issue after a long drive. Replacing individual battery modules will become cheap enough it will extend the life of battery packs enough. And once the whole battery needs replacing it will be ok financially.

In the not too distant future there will be contact less charging everywhere, at Walmart, at work, at home.

In the near future, electric vehicles will be obsolete and we'll be running off rainwater and people will be parking their cars outside to harvest it. California will be mostly unlivable.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermar…

How does that work when all cars are electric? Fighting with some guy at the grocery store for a charging port? I'm not trying to be inflammatory asking that, I genuinely wonder what the approach is supposed to be if suddenly everyone went and bought an electric car. I always hear that "you can charge all over the place" but I'll see like, two charging stalls in a giant parking lot. I wonder what the future looks lik…

Demand and supply I guess. If all cars were EV all parking spots would have a port. Simplistic I know but that's how markets work. Would gas/petrol stations exist every few km if there weren't cars that needed them?

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermar…

some places have a couple of chargers, which is nowhere close to "the whole parking lot"

Didn't imply that but neither are EVs that common at the moment to be a problem.
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