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Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

nobelprize.org

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Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#151
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk is that if you start bombing Iranian nuclear facilities that they immediately start manufacturing a nuclear bomb.

Start..?

Current intelligence believes Iran is not actively building a bomb, although the time to do so is very short if they choose to.

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#152
post #17

This is indeed a very timely award. I sometimes feel like the world has forgotten that nuclear weapons still exist and are still on hair-trigger alert to obliterate major cities. Maybe the end of atmospheric testing and the success of (now defunct) weapons reduction treaties has blunted public perception to the ongoing threat that they represent, and to the need to tread carefully where nuclear powers are involved.

Totally agree this is very relevant today. We have heads of state in the EU and to some degree people in the USG with very cavalier approaches to the ideological war between the West and the BRICS.

I really don't know what the F* they are thinking but they keep pushing further and further and hope there is no elastic snap. It's like they forgot about diplomacy with enemies --at the height of the cold war, at its Apex in the Cuba Missile Crisis, we had communication with the enemy --it was inconceivable we would not have communications with them but now it's a wild west of bluster and provocation. I'm not saying were not right in tamping down aggression, but you have to be cognizant of the perils that exist.

Quite striking is strident opponents of the Hiroshima/Nagasaki decision have few qualms about the prospects of current escalation. It's insane.

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#153
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Point is that if we can not behave on Earth how can we do it in other place.

it's an open question as to how interplanetary politics will actually go. it's possible that ancient squabbles between countries will carryover, but hopefully they won't, which means that a terrorist's nuclear bomb causing MAD on Earth wouldn't necessarily carryover to MAD on a terraformed Mars and Lunar colonies, as we saw with the Russians who boarded the ISS in blue and yellow. But even if it doesn't, Earth being…

> it's possible that ancient squabbles between countries

Don't forget with-in countries.

If another planet becomes another 'country', they'll have internal disagreements.

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#154
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I put a hammer over your head that can fall any minute you'll be worrying, but if you're born with the hammer over your head and your parents before you as well, it becomes less of a thing.

On an individual level, we all have a variety of hammers over our heads. Cancer has killed far more people prematurely than nuclear weapons. Something like 500,000 people a year are murdered. Traffic/bicycle/pedestrian accidents also kill more than nuclear weapons. Even compared to a once-in-a-century nuclear war that perhaps kills a billion people, cancer will kill roughly a billion in the next century anyway. So, f…

Does your risk assessment methodology also account for near misses? Agency? Morality? Source of risk? Costs of mitigation? Benefits? Something like actuary tables?

Mitigation of bike and pedestrian deaths is cheap. Just reform land use, advantage people over vehicles. Oops, now you're into culture and values.

Mitigation of cancer deaths is very expensive. Though we didn't invent cancer, we feel the moral imperative to "cure" it. And yet, while we're mitigating it, we're also making it worse. Cross purposes. What's your balance sheet for this conundrum?

Drugs kill lots of people. We own that one, right? How's the War on Drugs working out?

In conclusion, I wish I could wave away these dilemmas with a cute nominator and denominator. But I can barely reason about them before my head explodes. So I'm not buying what you're selling. Life's a bit more complicated, a bit more empirical, a bit less rational, than your tidy equations.

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#155
post #55
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it matter? It was probably obvious to the scientists working on the bomb that other countries would get it too sooner or later, including countries at odds with each other.

But was it really obvious? From what I can tell, much of the nuclear arms race happened thanks to espionage. Had information on warheads and the like been properly contained, maybe other countries would not have so easily developed the bomb.

> Had information on warheads and the like been properly contained, maybe other countries would not have so easily developed the bomb.

The Soviets had people inside the Manhattan Project / Los Alamos. As the US made progress that information was fed to the Soviets/Russians.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Fuchs

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_spies

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#156

Phenomenal choice. While 80 years is nice- it's a blip on the timescale of history. I personally think we're a button click away from going back to the stone age. I know others will disagree, but it's not something you wanna take a gamble on. I think it's one of the reasons we have to be self sustaining on other heavenly bodies. And also why wars or proxy wars between nuclear powers are extremely foolish and should b…

So like usual I offer up "what's your alternative" ? Is it to ignore Russian's invasion of countries? Ignore Iran's chaos it wants to sew constantly in the Middle East? It's easy to say "just be peaceful" but history shows that countries are not peaceful towards one another, they constantly want to take other's resources, or force their way of life on others, or settle some vague issue they have with another country (or people there). I think most people would love if countries would just stop attacking others. right now we don't have the tech to live on "other bodies", that is pie in the sky. I would love if nation-states just stopped the nonsense and were good to one another and their inhabitants, but that has never been the case.

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but how? Obviously the invader is not going to stop the war and say "this was foolish". So it is up to all other nations to bow down and let them have their piece of the world.

[flagged]

literally all the Russians have to do is stop and go back home and the war is over. they will never do that because they elected a President who is named Putin and now he has a Hitleresque dream of taking all the old Soviet vassal states back. He is the one doing this and he is the one you will have to convince to stop; although I am sure there are plenty of yes men that he has attracted to his orbit to support his crazed dream of Soviet restoration

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot less war under his admin than now. And I voted for the current admin. He's more jingoistic than Dick Cheney?

He’s certainly more jingoistic than Harris, as his slogans and supporters make evident.

not to mention fact checkers are often overwhelmed after just one speech of his there are so many lies and exaggerations. He is a narcissistic grifter that became a cult leader.

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#159
post #97

[flagged]

I'm also of the opinion that MAD has been the largest single greatest cause of peace in the past 80 years, but I disagree that this award is bad. The reason we haven't seen a single use of nuclear weapons since then, not even relatively small ones, is because of the nuclear taboo that organizations like this have engendered

Re: Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 awarded to Nihon Hidankyo

#160
post #109

[flagged]

I have a feeling this will change real soon.

50/50 but yeah it's like Israel attempts to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Problem is they are buried so deep now that it's pointless and at best a slight delay. Only the US (or maybe China or Russia) to get at facilities that deep and I don't see that happening unless Trump wins. Biden/Harris will never sign off on that.
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