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Tesla Robotaxi

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211–220 of 788 posts

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#211
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire plan hinges on low cost high volume. That means reducing parts and complexity. Stainless steel body so no paint shop or variations to worry about, or paint maintenance, etc. removing steering wheel, removing glass roof, removing doors, and more. For high density you have the robovan.

Vehicles are dominated by the production costs of producing anything . You save surprisingly little producing smaller vehicles because the expensive bits are all the things you don't majorly save on like the production lines, the battery, the mechanicals, the wiring, the electronics, etc. Nicer interiors, paint options, and other consumer upgrades have extremely low marginal costs. They're pure profit for the manufac…

Just look at traditional USA automakers and why they are scaling up their vehicles. Bigger vehicles can justify bigger prices thus bigger margins. Even if the manufacturing price is not that much different.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. If you have a robotaxi for under 30k, why not just sell the car for that much?

Tesla market cap is based on AI/robotaxi/FSD. Without that, they’re just playing catchup to BYD (who quietly, yet aggressively, executes at scale; they offer EVs today between $10k-$20k and already employ more workers than Toyota [for scale]). https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/cars/china-tesla-byd-competit... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/03/chinas-byd-is-set-to-beat-te... https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/be…

I think you're ignoring the fact that Chinese manufacturers are heavily tariffed in the west

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#213
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire plan hinges on low cost high volume. That means reducing parts and complexity. Stainless steel body so no paint shop or variations to worry about, or paint maintenance, etc. removing steering wheel, removing glass roof, removing doors, and more. For high density you have the robovan.

Vehicles are dominated by the production costs of producing anything . You save surprisingly little producing smaller vehicles because the expensive bits are all the things you don't majorly save on like the production lines, the battery, the mechanicals, the wiring, the electronics, etc. Nicer interiors, paint options, and other consumer upgrades have extremely low marginal costs. They're pure profit for the manufac…

If you go down to basic physical material costs, Surface area of car, Metal cost, Glass cost etc, are the things which will determine car price in long run, So car which is weighting let's say 25% percent less can be be built cheaper compared to car weighting more. Less doors, less glass use, less paint, less material, less battery needed for same amount of distance, which brings down to cost.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter because it's a meaningless statistic. But sure, I'll entertain it. Last figure I heard was 1 disengagement per 200 miles. The distance between SF and LA is 380 miles. If my car can drive me from SF to LA and I only have to intervene once , that's already incredible and leagues ahead of what Waymo can offer. And since you asked, FSD 12.6 will reduce disengagements per mile by 5x.

Waymo doesn't require a driver to supervise the car, they're supposedly running Level 4 cars. FSD requires continual supervision, you must be responsible and attentive at all times. How is this a reasonable comparison?

You say this as if there isn't an army of teleoperators behind the scenes ready to remotely take over a Waymo at a moment's notice...

It was also announced today that unsupervised FSD is coming to Texas and California in 2025.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#215

The most interesting thing to me by far was the lack of a steering wheel on the Robocab. Without manual controls, vague promises ("puffery"?) about autonomy won't drive vehicle sales as they do today across all Tesla's models. The Robocab as shown literally cannot function (or make a dime of revenue) until they've fully solved autonomy and have convinced regulators of the same.

It's not going to be in mass production until 2027 at the earliest, realistically. Will they have unsupervised FSD "next year" as claimed? I doubt it. But by 2027? I think there's a strong possibility. I've been testing FSD since it was released and lately the pace of improvement has gotten a lot faster. And the Cybercab is going to have a much faster onboard computer, and probably more/better cameras.

I got to try fsd (supervised) recently, and although it wasn't perfect, it was pretty good.

I also had to learn to to enable adaptive driving (or whatever it is called) to let the car go slightly over the speed limit and go with the flow of traffic, otherwise it would only go the speed limit and people would rage-pass.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#216

Anybody know why the autonomous taxi isn't just a model 3? I don't see the point in a purpose built two seater with no steering wheel or pedals and I don't know why regulators would approve an autonomous car with no way to manually override it.

First reason - doors won’t close themselves.

Why is this a requirement?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla market cap is based on AI/robotaxi/FSD. Without that, they’re just playing catchup to BYD (who quietly, yet aggressively, executes at scale; they offer EVs today between $10k-$20k and already employ more workers than Toyota [for scale]). https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/cars/china-tesla-byd-competit... https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/03/chinas-byd-is-set-to-beat-te... https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/be…

I think you're ignoring the fact that Chinese manufacturers are heavily tariffed in the west

Not at all. Global light vehicle sales are ~90M units/year. US ~17M/year. EU ~13M/year. China remains a factory to the world (and itself is the leading market). BYD can build in Mexico (NAFTA) and the EU to avoid tariffs, if desired.

Tariffs aren’t going to keep the EV printer at bay. They only delay the inevitable.

https://electrek.co/2024/10/09/byd-to-sell-100000-evs-north-...

https://electrek.co/2024/08/16/byd-plots-another-ev-plant-wh...

https://electrek.co/2024/03/12/byd-triple-ev-market-share-eu...

https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/china-ev-driving-seat-us-a...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#218
post #9

What if there are humans acting as these Tesla Robots in this product demo or the Tesla Robots are just remotely operated by humans to fake this demo?. Very skeptical of this whole presentation, even if Elon and Tesla are overpromising on timelines.

Nothing that was shown is beyond the capabilities of robots from over a decade ago like Asimo (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am1csALyEzE). It was a cool demo and beyond hobbyist capabilities, but realistically achievable by a commercial lab without having to fake it.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#219
post #186

They claim that unsupervised autonomy in existing cars will arrive in California and Texas next year (with an easy bogieman that it will depend on regulatory approval), but no details as to what exactly this would mean. It’s possible that they might be able to get an Level 3 product out similar to offerings by the likes of Daimler, Cadillac, and Ford - where on certain highways under certain conditions you don’t have…

Ford and Cadillac have Level 2 systems, not Level 3. Tesla also has Level 2, but it is significantly more capable. (I don't think any of the others work on city streets at all, or even change lanes automatically based on navigation.)

Mercedes is so limited to just technically qualify for Level 3 that it could be likely be trivially outmatched by some limited FSD conditions if that's the route Tesla wanted to go.

But yeah I assume you start with some limited Level 3 subset, probably highway, then extend it to city streets. Then just start working your way through validating new conditions.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter because it's a meaningless statistic. But sure, I'll entertain it. Last figure I heard was 1 disengagement per 200 miles. The distance between SF and LA is 380 miles. If my car can drive me from SF to LA and I only have to intervene once , that's already incredible and leagues ahead of what Waymo can offer. And since you asked, FSD 12.6 will reduce disengagements per mile by 5x.

Waymo was doing .64 disengagements per 1000 miles in 2015 and wasn't comfortable launching a taxi service on that. Even after 12.6, Tesla will be behind. The point is Tesla can't launch a driverless taxi service on its current system, not from SF to LA, not within SF, not anywhere.

My Tesla drives me around SF every day yet you're telling me it doesn't
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