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Is the attack helicopter dead?

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Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#421
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I the only person who is shocked to realize that this is the same Perun who does strategy gaming YouTube tutorials on a related channel!? I had seen a bunch of his Terra Invicta content… had no idea he also did actual military analysis? Is that what he does professionally in some capacity or is he just an amateur interested in this stuff with a fairly well researched YouTube channel?

I mean, as I watched him destroy my personal definition of what a military industry might look like in X4 I did start to make the connection with the similar sounding war economist I followed.

Complete with slideshows about what he was doing, how he planned to do it, and the logistics involved with becoming the supreme arms dealer and private army to half a dozen governments.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? A helicopter is on the order of 75-80 decibels at 1000 feet. That’s the equivalent of a giant flying stadium speaker consuming kilowatts of power, that has to catch a much smaller 200mph drone while being just as cheap. The attack drone can just move and triangulate the sound, eliminating anything that’s trying to mimic a helicopter without outputting enough decibels.

Use your imagination. The counter-drone doesn't have to output the exact same energy profile as an attack helicopter, just close enough to trigger the anti-helo-drone's activation. Examples: the counter-drone outputs only a specific frequency (the anti-helo drone isn't running a whole sound analysis, just a narrow range). It outputs that at much lower decibels (the anti-helo-drone just thinks the helo is farther away…

The thing is, maybe it just doesn't make economic sense to protect the (expensive) helo with such more expensive shenanigans, given the volume of oomph it can bring onto the battlefield.

Knights in armor didn't necessarily die out because of their vulnerability to guns; rather, professional pikemen and musketeers started making more economic sense.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#423
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This needs a very large "citation needed" banner.

Ah yes, the "source?" argument. The classic cry of people who want to disagree but have nothing productive to add to the discussion. I could point you to literally dozens of books on the Pax Americana and its decline (google is your friend) and America's de facto empire, as well as historical studies of the Pax Brittanica and the Pax Romana. Or Chinese histories that discuss the waves of peace and prosperity followin…

The problem with narrativized framings like "Pax Americana" is that they only work if you focus on internal peace. The "American" century began with World War 2 (arguably) and was defined by continuous proxy wars and assassinations. The US also didn't stand unchallenged at least until the decline of the Soviet Union (remember: the commies even won the "Space Race" before the goalposts moved to putting a man on the moon) but arguably that was also a crucial step in the rise of China as a direct challenger.

In the case of Pax Americana the framing is also dubious as it wasn't American dominance that kept the peace in Europe (on this side of the iron curtain) but arguably more the shared market and the necessity of cooperation to recover from the wounds of two world wars while facing the threat of annihilation in the conflict between the US and the Soviet Union.

Even in Europe this period was heavily defined by oppressive policing in both East and West Germany (culminating in the fall of the Berlin Wall in the East and the student protests and RAF terrorist attacks in the West), civil war in Northern Ireland (with terrorist attacks reaching deep into England at times), separatist movements in the Basque region, the excruciatingly slow death of fascism in Spain and Portugal, the violent suppression of striking miners in the UK, and the birth pains of neoliberalism and austerity.

The "pax" in these titles always only applies in a very narrow sense to the affluent in its imperial core, i.e. the American upper middle class of the 1950s or the British bourgeoisie of the colonial era. Even the Pax Romana is not a coherent description of life in the Roman Empire for the time frame it is often applied to and was defined by expansion (i.e. military conquest) not an absence of war.

If anything, the "prosperity" these terms often imply always only existed because of a hierarchical system of exploitation and the "peace" refers to the absence of serious challengers to disrupt this exploitation. The prosperity in Britain during the Pax Britannica specifically only existed due to the violent oppression of British colonies and the absence of powerful challengers to claim those colonies instead. Following the war economies of WW2, the 20th century saw a massive redistribution of wealth and public infrastructure to the financial elites, especially under Reagan in the US and Thatcher in the UK, while colonialism largely evolved from the crude brutal oppression of e.g. the British Raj to loans and privatization, aka "soft power" (promoting the production of worthless cash crops for international trade at low margins instead of vital food crops, making the economy dependent on imports to keep the local population fed, or exporting raw resources rather than building up local infrastructure to refine those resources into goods that can be sold at a higher price and thus having to import the finished goods at exorbitant prices).

So, yes, for you or I living in the imperial core - whether literally in the US or by extension in Europe - the "decline" and the rise of challengers is worrisome and can only be negative. But ultimately, especially to those living outside that core, the challengers are no worse or better than the status quo.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#424

We’re still in the very early stage of drone development for warfare and Ukraine is using a lot of civilian gear. Now the armed forces of the world are plowing their funding into R&D I expect them to develop quickly. For example, aluminum air batteries are perfect for this use case but havent been developed because until now single use batteries haven’t seen any demand. Those will at least double or triple the range…

>Imagine the drone just sitting there listening for a helicopter to get close enough Imagine a drone which outputs the signature of an attack helicopter to draw out that loitering drone and then destroy it, leaving the space open for an actual attack helicopter to swoop in and do its business.

But thats counter-counter territory- that means you are already on the entrenched territory backfoot that produces trenchwarfare, just with a overromanticized million- dollar queen piece in the background that brings no additional value to the battleground in a drone- vs drone saturation scenario. Its the same as tank vs minefield vs anti-rpg equpiment. Yes you can protect and counter, but the approach is so slow- expensive, it makes the original idea no longer worth the effort.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#426
post #313

In the war I fought in, there was a markedly different approach to combat air ops between even just the different service branches. The Army tended to use the Apache like it was a flying tank, hovering and delivering ordinance; the Marines (which is where I fought) flew as low and as quickly as possible even while sending rounds and hellfire missiles downrange. The marines were not losing aircraft in anywhere close t…

Russia's use is more similar to the use you describe in the marines. Come in fast and low, pop up the nose and fire off the ordinance while popping flares then get out before the MANPADS can take a shot. The problem is that this limits them to very expensive portable artillery and the accuracy suffers a lot when you can't stick around. The big use for helicopters is defense. Russia showed the potential during last ye…

Somewhere in ukraine, they are already gluing manpads to baba-yagas, to loiter behind enemy lines for air-targets.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#427
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> America lost the Vietnam war. Do you think Vietnam is America's near peer? I was responding to somebody who said Ukraine was Russian’s near-peer. I didn’t say they should be considered peers now, just that they certainly weren’t when the choice was made to go to war. The Vietnam War was like 50 years ago. Who cares, sure, I don’t have any investment in whether or not the US and Vietnam were peers decades before I w…

> I didn’t say they should be considered peers now You implied it. > The Vietnam War was like 50 years ago. Who cares, sure, I don’t have any investment in whether or not the US and Vietnam were peers decades before I was born. Vietnam certainly has an impressive record. America clearly wasn't using anywhere near all of the power it had. Neither is Russia now.

It seems like they are fairly close to their non-nuclear limits though. I guess they could fuel air bomb Kiev but that would likely change the calculus re nato involvement so is not obviously an aid to their cause.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#428
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tanks and the other things you list do much better when used by well trained troops in ways that the trainers tell you to. russia isn't doing that so they look bad but that is russia not the concept

You're talking about a year ago. Today, Russia has the largest and most experienced infantry on the planet. Ukraine tried NATO tactics in last year's offensive and got slaughtered. If they'd tried to bunch up even closer (as some NATO generals were pushing for), the losses would have been far worse inside of those kill boxes. It's not training. Tanks are trivial for spotter drones to find at which point they can die…

Ukraine tried Ukrainian tactics two months ago and found no Russian army at all.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#429
post #126
post #4

Better discussion by Perun https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnoKpXvj41A (there is a saying or word for titles as questions, and the answer is always no)

Am I the only person who is shocked to realize that this is the same Perun who does strategy gaming YouTube tutorials on a related channel!? I had seen a bunch of his Terra Invicta content… had no idea he also did actual military analysis? Is that what he does professionally in some capacity or is he just an amateur interested in this stuff with a fairly well researched YouTube channel?

He does defence economics mostly for the Australian military, and liaising with allies. Probably a civilian contractor, possibly a think tank employee at an outfit like ASPI, but I doubt it.

Re: Is the attack helicopter dead?

#430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The old ‘Russia will not use nukes because they have not used nukes’ routine so people can feel safer about poking the bear. There is always a first time and I’m very thankful that it hasn’t happed yet. To me a near peer implies that either side has a good chance of losing the war. It’s my opinion that Russia has not yet been at a real risk of losing this war and thus has not yet had a need to use nuclear weapons. I’…

Both the US and the USSR lost major wars during the Cold War without resorting to nuking their opponent when they felt they were "at a real risk of losing a war". In Vietnam and Korea, the Soviet involvement was considerably more than the current Western involvement in countering the Ukraine invasion. Soviet pilots on Soviet planes killed Americans in American planes. Soviet operators of Soviet-made SAM sites shut do…

I mostly agree, but it does assume rational actors in charge. If the goal of conflict is to cement the position of a dictatorial elite, it’s not clear to me that ‘smaller scale’ nuclear exchanges are ruled out, especially if leaders are isolated, paranoid etc.
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