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Part of a broader pattern in military technology right now. All weapon systems that consist of an expensive vehicle and an expensive-to-train crew are being re-evaluated against drones right now. If you're fighting a highly asymmetric conflict where your enemies can barely touch your expensive toys then it's less of a concern. If you're fighting near-peer it's a different story.
Efficiency starts to matter in a near-peer conflict.
I prefer the Culture term “equiv-tech”
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They will be when there are AI controlled aircraft/drones that can exceed the G-force limits that humans require and can thus out maneuver any human controlled fighter.
This doesn't seem right to me. The limiting factor here is the ability of an air to air missile to hit a target (and to find the target in the first place). A drone might be more survivable (if it's better at avoiding missiles because of the G-forces etc.,.), but it shouldn't be any better at destroying an enemy jet, right? That theoretical highly maneuverable drone with a highly advanced sensor suite isn't going to…
You gave part of the answer right there. Not only would you not be limited by the number of - hard to replace and time-consuming and expensive to train - pilots but you don't run the risk of losing them either.
> but if the drones are too expensive it doesn't matter.
The large expense for fighter aircraft tends not to lie in the actual production costs but in the development costs which are spread over a limited production run. Build more drones and they get less expensive per item. Build enough of them to overwhelm the enemy and you win drone superiority.
Whoever can most cost effectively put explosives on target wins. The future will be annihilation at a distance with cheap standoff weapons followed by swarms of cheap drones loitering over battlefields to clean up.
We've had ICBMs for some time.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shouldn't it be more drone-vs-drone?
> Shouldn't it be more drone-vs-drone? For the sake of humanity, I wish that was the case, but it won't be. Defensive drones will exist for sure, but generally the targets will be human or infrastructure, not other drones.
I'm surprise the article didn't mention the US military history. The US Army has not had a evolution of its attack helicopter since the 1970s. I remember because one of my favorite childhood games was Comanche 3. [1] Control a helicopter, not crash, not get shot down, neutralize enemies, and achieve mission objectives -- it was cutting-edge for 1997. The Comanche program was scrapped after more than a decade of devel…
Between that, F-22, JSF, Hind and A10, we had some great great games that decade. Still miss Fighter Ace on MSN Gaming Zone.
Sure, it's beta and continuously in development (and likely won't be finished, ever), but still, you can take off in a Harrier and blow up stuff. The graphics are charmingly retro.
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[1] published by MicroProse, but actually a one-man effort.
I'm surprise the article didn't mention the US military history. The US Army has not had a evolution of its attack helicopter since the 1970s. I remember because one of my favorite childhood games was Comanche 3. [1] Control a helicopter, not crash, not get shot down, neutralize enemies, and achieve mission objectives -- it was cutting-edge for 1997. The Comanche program was scrapped after more than a decade of devel…
I think most manned war vehicles are dead now. We are definitely entering into the era of drone-vs-human warfare. Drones are cheap and deadly and can be remotely operated, and soon probably operated by AI.
But drones are changing warfare. Drone hunting other drones, drone with self guidance - they are being used in battle right now.
500$ or even less is the cost of FPV drone with night camera capable to carry 2kg bomb. Russia is buying soldiers for up to $25000 to be killed by such cheap drone later.
The concept of tactical air superiority is now questionable. The USAF used to boast that American troops have not had to fight under a hostile sky since 1952. That era seems to be over. There are so many portable systems now that can take out an aircraft.
Jam-resistant drones are already a thing. Drones are going to have to be shot down one at a time. This is quite possible but the missiles to do it can cost more than the drones.
[1] https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024/02/08/us-army-spent-bil...