Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan • Hacker News Board

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#31

Post by tptacek » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 8:55 PM UTC

hank777 wrote: post #28

tptacek wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read it, I disagreed with it, but it didn't seem insanely unsubstantiated, just wrong. For it to be insanely unsubstantiated, it would at the least need to be true that rent control was a stunning success, which it is not.

I disagree. He bases his argument on the idea that rent control causes high rents as demonstrated in places like NY. This is patently false in my opinion, but my opinion is not what counts. The reason I say it is unsubstantiated and therefore insane, is that he provided no argument for the idea that there is a causation between high rents and rent control. The author falls into the all too common trap of mapping a co…

Are we talking about the same article? In the one I remember, he backed his argument up with a survey of deviation from median rent in markets with and without rent control.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#32

Post by mk » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:14 PM UTC

Prrometheus wrote: post #15

metaguri wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spot on. Many of Greenspun's points make intuitive sense and thus seem like a good argument on their own, but they are quite incompatible. You can't have your cake and eat it too. I really like your point #1, and it's the most important. I'm not sure if there are empirical analyses to support this, but I believe that investing in education has the greatest returns (up to the limit when your whole population is educat…

>"I'm not sure if there are empirical analyses to support this, but I believe that investing in education has the greatest returns (up to the limit when your whole population is educated maximally--but that's a far ways off from where we are right now). " Most people don't get this point, but the US spends A LOT of money on education, more than most countries. "More money" is the easy answer, the one that politicians…

The US may spend a lot of money on education, but there is an underlying problem that isn't addressed in either your comment or Phil Greenspun's argument. K-12 education is primarily funded through property tax. This results in wealthy communities having great schools with tons of resources and poor communities that are using decades old resources and schools that are falling apart. So maybe you are correct in saying that "more money" isn't the answer. The tax system that we use for education is not equal and is failing us as a country. If we want to maximize the ability of people we should give the most people the best opportunity that we can.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#33

Post by rsheridan6 » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:14 PM UTC

Prrometheus wrote: post #25

This is a fluff article. Tempting fluff that causes everybody to come to the comment section and offer up their preconceived ideas. But fluff is fluff, even if it's tasty. I don't see what I would gain from reading Greenspun's opinion on economic policy matters that I wouldn't get from reading Hayek, Friedman, or Keynes, or modern empirical arguments from places like Cato. What comparative advantage does Greenspun ha…

Do you have any actual problems with the article that would rate more than a DH0 response? http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#34

Post by Brushfire » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:16 PM UTC

preview wrote: post #29

"Nobody has ever made a compelling argument for how having unionized teachers helps students. Nor has anyone ever made a compelling argument for how having tenured teachers helps student performance." I agree with these statements. However, there are many public school systems in the USA that are successful. Why? That is the right question to ask. The education problem is much more complicated than simply giving pare…

The successful public schools are successful based on parents almost exclusively. Where I'm at, the township schools that surround the cities public schools are dramatically better. The people that live in these areas as a whole have more money and more time to commit to their childrens education, and they value education more.

Clearly, the issue is more complicated than choice, but choice is a step in the right direction. But if we are to do choice, we much also do vouchers, so that the public tax money can go to public schools or to private schools. This process will eliminate the teacher union qualms stated by the article naturally, as people filter into private schools or functional public schools.

The best schools will be more competitive, yes. How is this any different than the rest of life? We use merit based systems for university and graduate schools, and on some level for job placement. Why would it not work in lower levels? I maintain that with choice, and vouchers, more private schools would pop up to cater to the excess supply of fantastic students, if such a surplus exists.

The real problem with this whole equation, just like in healthcare and other government services is the problem of the extreme low class. Parents have more of an impact, and without good parents, smart children may never become good students, which would prvent them from participating in the meritocratic system described above. I can find no good solution to deal with the parents who do not value education over all else, and this is the real crux of the problem.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#35

Post by rsheridan6 » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:21 PM UTC

Hellblazer wrote: post #3

Wondering what possible expertise Greenspun brings to this arena. Worse, this post of his is just a long list of assertions without any references, supporting material or backup. I guess we're just supposed to accept on faith that he knows what he's talking about. Which is kind of how we got into this cluster F in the first place, isn't it? Thinking that your experience in specialty X translates to great insights int…

There are references, supporting materials, and backup. Read the article again.

And are you saying that we got into this cluster F by listening to Phil Greenspun, or other amateurs? It seems to me that the well-paid "experts" in finance and the media deserve most of the blame rather than internet people shooting their mouths off.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#36

Post by davidw » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:32 PM UTC

Prrometheus wrote: post #15

metaguri wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spot on. Many of Greenspun's points make intuitive sense and thus seem like a good argument on their own, but they are quite incompatible. You can't have your cake and eat it too. I really like your point #1, and it's the most important. I'm not sure if there are empirical analyses to support this, but I believe that investing in education has the greatest returns (up to the limit when your whole population is educat…

>"I'm not sure if there are empirical analyses to support this, but I believe that investing in education has the greatest returns (up to the limit when your whole population is educated maximally--but that's a far ways off from where we are right now). " Most people don't get this point, but the US spends A LOT of money on education, more than most countries. "More money" is the easy answer, the one that politicians…

Ok, so it's probably not a money problem, although perhaps it's not allocated well. And while we may agree that the unions are sort of a hindrance, many other countries have heavily unionized teaching systems, and still do better, so I think it would be wrong to pin everything on that.

So what is it? I wonder if it's a cultural thing. I remember how important it was during high school to not be seen as a "nerd". In Italy, my friends can't really relate to that sort of mentality - it doesn't really exist there like it does in the US. Doing well in school is basically seen as a good thing. Maybe it's not foremost in everyone's minds, but it's not something to be derided either.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#37

Post by Prrometheus » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:37 PM UTC

mk wrote: post #32

Prrometheus wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"I'm not sure if there are empirical analyses to support this, but I believe that investing in education has the greatest returns (up to the limit when your whole population is educated maximally--but that's a far ways off from where we are right now). " Most people don't get this point, but the US spends A LOT of money on education, more than most countries. "More money" is the easy answer, the one that politicians…

The US may spend a lot of money on education, but there is an underlying problem that isn't addressed in either your comment or Phil Greenspun's argument. K-12 education is primarily funded through property tax. This results in wealthy communities having great schools with tons of resources and poor communities that are using decades old resources and schools that are falling apart. So maybe you are correct in saying…

DC is regularly one of the top 3 school districts in the country in terms of per pupil spending. I don't think you would want to send your children there.

There are fundamental incentive problems with public monopolies. When you have a group of dedicated, wealthy, involved parents, these negative incentives can be overcome. However, the system fails your average person, and it surely fails those who need the most help even when a lot of money is spent on them.

Those of us who advocate market reforms simply want the incentives of the system to be a help, rather than a hindrance. But we're radical right-wing nazis who hate children and eat puppies, so I don't think our plans are going to be implemented any time soon.

Also, it's funny that we are characterized that way in the United States, when such right-wing countries as Sweden and the Netherlands already have universal school vouchers that can be spent on private schools.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#38

Post by russell » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:41 PM UTC

mixmax wrote: post #14

tokenadult wrote: post #2

"Nobody has ever made a compelling argument for how having unionized teachers helps students. Nor has anyone ever made a compelling argument for how having tenured teachers helps student performance. Our country's best performing schools (all of them private) have non-unionized teaching staffs. We can't afford to experiment with unionized teachers anymore. The government created the right for public employees to unio…

Denmark has unionized teachers, and has a long history of public schools. Danes have invented C++(Bjarne Stoustrup), Turbo Pascal, C#, Dephi (Anders Hejlsberg) and Ruby on Rails (DHH). For a country with a population half of New York I think that's pretty impressive. I can't help to notice when working with foreigners that Danes have a much better knack at understanding a problem domain and coming up with creative so…

Well Denmark has it easy. It's full of Danes. We have lots of new immigrants and people climbing up from underclasses which don't have a tradition of educational excellence. That part of the solution will take time.

Edit: Let me clarify. Denmark has a small homogeneous well educated population. I would expect that the parents take an intense interest in their children's education resulting in high achievement. In contrast in California we have a much more diverse population with a large proportion of recent immigrants. The parents are not well educated themselves and the kids are struggling because of poor English. This makes it difficult to have a high achieving school system. Sure wealthy communities have excellent schools and can attract the best teachers, but the poorer districts can't. This is not a racial or ethnic problem; it's economic.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#39

Post by Prrometheus » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:42 PM UTC

rsheridan6 wrote: post #33

Prrometheus wrote: post #25

This is a fluff article. Tempting fluff that causes everybody to come to the comment section and offer up their preconceived ideas. But fluff is fluff, even if it's tasty. I don't see what I would gain from reading Greenspun's opinion on economic policy matters that I wouldn't get from reading Hayek, Friedman, or Keynes, or modern empirical arguments from places like Cato. What comparative advantage does Greenspun ha…

Do you have any actual problems with the article that would rate more than a DH0 response? http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html

I am not insulting Phil Greenspun. But do you know how many personal political manifestos are on the internet? What are the chances that this one will be more valuable than average?

I read through the first page or so, it didn't seem like it was going to offer any new or interesting ideas. And that's fine. Phil can post his opinions on his web page all he wants. It's a free country. I just don't think it should be the #1 story on the front page, or that it will engender good discussion.

Re: Philip Greenspun's Economy Recovery Plan

#40

Post by DaniFong » Fri, Jan 02, 2009, 9:43 PM UTC

gcv wrote: post #11

Hellblazer wrote: post #3

Wondering what possible expertise Greenspun brings to this arena. Worse, this post of his is just a long list of assertions without any references, supporting material or backup. I guess we're just supposed to accept on faith that he knows what he's talking about. Which is kind of how we got into this cluster F in the first place, isn't it? Thinking that your experience in specialty X translates to great insights int…

You have a point, but unfortunately, the only discipline which claims any real insights into fixing the economy is economics. You know, the "dismal science." It is the discipline in which the introductory books outline the basic rules. Supply, demand, production possibilities curves, all that sensible, good stuff. It all makes sense --- experts in economics should be able to wisely guide nations and markets, right? T…

I think that the dynamics of the latest bubble burst had more to do with psychology, sociology and the moral questions of old than economics, and increasingly people are viewing it that way. What we're dealing with is to a large extent an emotional phenomenon. Trust has flown out, fear has arisen, panic has set in, assumptions are being reanalyzed, and blame is being placed.