As time goes by, I think the time to get started in a new system (which for PHP is almost 0 time) is one of the most important things. The problem is that the developers of rails / grails / Wt / SproutCore / Flex / Struts / GWT / Django / Flask / Zope / Merb / Zotonic might be sure their framework is the greatest ever, and clearly worth a couple of days (or even a couple of hours) of someone's time to get it all conf…
You're right about the 1%, and it's why classic ASP did as well as it did for a while too, until that was killed off. The fact that big players who once scoffed at PHP now embrace it (MS is a big one) shows how big PHP is and will continue to be for the foreseeable future Will PHP be here in 3-5 years? certainly. 10 years? possibly, but with a difference at least as big as php/fi -> php5 is, so current php5 skills won't really be of much use on their own.