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Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

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Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#81

Post by adw »

bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

"perversion of sports" is a particularly American viewpoint, I think! The latent streak of puritanism, maybe. Yet, somehow, the NCAA (which is wage theft on a truly industrial scale) is morally okay. It's weird.

(The intersection with US ad culture – for existence, drug ads on TV – is maybe also unique.)

Sport has, as a business, always been random number generation for gambling purposes. Some, like horseracing, have basically no other point. Gambling is going to happen, and like weed, it's probably better that it's regulated and taxed than entirely underground. There's no more gambling content now than there was fantasy football content before, and fantasy football was gambling too.

If we're looking for a perversion of sports, though, how about the NCAA's industrial-scale wage theft? US professional sports should have junior systems which pay the players like the rest of the world...

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#82

Post by bluGill »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #65
dkrich wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is backwards. Casinos offer huge cross subsidization opportunities like getting people to spend lots of money in clubs and bars or gamble on games like slots that have a huge house edge while apps have near zero cross subsidization opportunities and massive overhead. An app running at draftkings scale costs a lot to operate. I’ve believed for a long time and continue to that the math on these businesses just doe…

Bookmakers can always lay the odds so that there’s equal money on each side. Then they’re just taking a 10% rake with zero risk. If they start getting killed by pros they’ll just move to the low risk strategy.

> Bookmakers can always lay the odds so that there’s equal money on each side

No they can't. Large ones can, but the small ones sometimes cannot because they have to match the large ones but in a smaller pool. If everyone knows which team is going to win, diehard fans of the losing team will still bet on their team - large players capture that in their odds and break even. Small players don't have the same mix of customers and so will have to take that loss because they need to compete with the large ones.

Of course overall the small players balance enough the 10% rake from less sure games over the years to make a lot of money but they can still lose 6 figures on some individual games. Small players are less a target for the pros (if only because they know their customer better and so won't accept the pros in the first place).

Remember the small players are often running an illegal operation. They need their reputation of paying out so that customers don't go elsewhere to even turn them in.

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#83

Post by burningChrome »

dkrich wrote: post #28
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Casino's can't survive off casual players. They need the addicts to make payroll. The fact that the pros are simulating problem players because then the betting apps give you more leeway, e.g. by "send[ing] you bonus money" and raising your limits, paints the picture quite effectively in my book. > Casino's can't survive off casual players. They need the addicts to make payroll To what degree is this true? Sure, a…

This is backwards. Casinos offer huge cross subsidization opportunities like getting people to spend lots of money in clubs and bars or gamble on games like slots that have a huge house edge while apps have near zero cross subsidization opportunities and massive overhead. An app running at draftkings scale costs a lot to operate. I’ve believed for a long time and continue to that the math on these businesses just doe…

>> I’ve believed for a long time and continue to that the math on these businesses just doesn’t work.

These companies and their apps feels like they're framing this as a social media app. Get together with your friends, play against each other. Its very, very much like fantasy football which generates billions in revenue every year. To me, those are the people and the money they're aiming for - not the casino betters.

I would assume this is the early stages of any market. You have a lot of companies jumping into the fray and trying to make it work. Then as time goes on, like you said, the money just won't work for them and at which point you'll see the standard consolidation where the companies who figure it out will still be there, possibly buy up some smaller companies and so on and so forth.

It will be interesting to see if companies like Draft Kings and Fan Duel can outlast some of the bigger players coming in like BetMGM and other casino backed companies. I don't think we'll be seeing "Bob's Bets" app anytime soon, which would support your idea that this is most likely a loss leader for these casino's, and what's the threshold where they will pull out?

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#84

Post by vharuck »

ronsor wrote: post #61
bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

I'm surprised that people seem to just now realize that sports betting is a bad idea. As you said, the worst aspect is the large amount of marketing and advertising these platforms receive; I wouldn't care if they weren't pushed so heavily.

Before it was legal, most people's experiences with sports betting were small wagers between friends. Maybe a few large bets that they'll still talk about to this day. Gambling with friends or even just coworkers comes with natural limits: the size of one's bets is limited by others' aversions to risk, compulsive gambling is easily spotted, and the players' winnings/losings are zero sum.

Yes, there were illegal bookies before legalization, and they had all the problems of legalized gambling plus more. But the law-abiding (or at least casually law-breaking) majority of voters didn't think increasing the prevalence of sports gambling would hurt. Not too mention all the revenue promises (more benefits, cuts to other taxes). It's no surprise legalization was politically popular.

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#85

Post by HDThoreaun »

adw wrote: post #81
bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

"perversion of sports" is a particularly American viewpoint, I think! The latent streak of puritanism, maybe. Yet, somehow, the NCAA (which is wage theft on a truly industrial scale) is morally okay. It's weird. (The intersection with US ad culture – for existence, drug ads on TV – is maybe also unique.) Sport has, as a business, always been random number generation for gambling purposes. Some, like horseracing, have…

NCAA players are now being paid for what its worth

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#86

Post by sickofparadox »

adw wrote: post #81
bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

"perversion of sports" is a particularly American viewpoint, I think! The latent streak of puritanism, maybe. Yet, somehow, the NCAA (which is wage theft on a truly industrial scale) is morally okay. It's weird. (The intersection with US ad culture – for existence, drug ads on TV – is maybe also unique.) Sport has, as a business, always been random number generation for gambling purposes. Some, like horseracing, have…

Being compensated in kind with housing, food, and education (not to mention significant "grants" from boosters clubs and brand deals) is not the same as wage theft and it is verbal slight of hand to suggest otherwise.

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#87

Post by darth_avocado »

ronsor wrote: post #61
bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

I'm surprised that people seem to just now realize that sports betting is a bad idea. As you said, the worst aspect is the large amount of marketing and advertising these platforms receive; I wouldn't care if they weren't pushed so heavily.

This. There’s plenty of things in society that are similarly bad, legal, but have restrictions on how you can sell them. There’s nothing inherently different about sports betting than options trading on a brokerage platform. But only one of them is advertised in every commercial break during a sports event.

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#88

Post by adw »

dkrich wrote: post #28
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Casino's can't survive off casual players. They need the addicts to make payroll. The fact that the pros are simulating problem players because then the betting apps give you more leeway, e.g. by "send[ing] you bonus money" and raising your limits, paints the picture quite effectively in my book. > Casino's can't survive off casual players. They need the addicts to make payroll To what degree is this true? Sure, a…

This is backwards. Casinos offer huge cross subsidization opportunities like getting people to spend lots of money in clubs and bars or gamble on games like slots that have a huge house edge while apps have near zero cross subsidization opportunities and massive overhead. An app running at draftkings scale costs a lot to operate. I’ve believed for a long time and continue to that the math on these businesses just doe…

> I’ve believed for a long time and continue to that the math on these businesses just doesn’t work.

Particularly for Las Vegas, the business may not be what you think it is. Vegas is, amongst other things, a global money laundrette.

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#89

Post by consteval »

adw wrote: post #81
bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

"perversion of sports" is a particularly American viewpoint, I think! The latent streak of puritanism, maybe. Yet, somehow, the NCAA (which is wage theft on a truly industrial scale) is morally okay. It's weird. (The intersection with US ad culture – for existence, drug ads on TV – is maybe also unique.) Sport has, as a business, always been random number generation for gambling purposes. Some, like horseracing, have…

> The latent streak of puritanism, maybe

The main problem is that addiction kind of goes around people's interests and their better judgement.

Normally I agree, we don't need to be making 'moral' decisions for people. If they want to do something 'sinful' - like gambling - have at it.

But the people who promote gambling have lots of money. And gambling is basically smoking. So, it gets hairy. They can lie, they can cheat, and they can manipulate people's minds, tricking them into doing something bad for them. And then the addiction does the rest.

Re: Pro bettors disguising themselves as gambling addicts

#90

Post by the_gorilla »

adw wrote: post #81
bentt wrote: post #53

The fact that ESPN itself has a sports betting app tells you all you need to know about the perversion of sports now that gambling is blessed by the government. I think I can live with the legalization of sports betting if there are strong restrictions against marketing and advertising. If you want to ruin your life that's your decision, and you can always just take the same amount of money and bet it on the stock ma…

"perversion of sports" is a particularly American viewpoint, I think! The latent streak of puritanism, maybe. Yet, somehow, the NCAA (which is wage theft on a truly industrial scale) is morally okay. It's weird. (The intersection with US ad culture – for existence, drug ads on TV – is maybe also unique.) Sport has, as a business, always been random number generation for gambling purposes. Some, like horseracing, have…

> Sport has, as a business, always been random number generation for gambling purposes

I personally don't care about the business of sports. Most sports were just ways for children to get exercise and everything that came after it was a perversion. Fat men sitting on couches watching other grown men throw a football around isn't much better than those same men gambling on it.

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