241–250 of 457 posts
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Is this satire? All of those industries listed significant disputes. If this is serious it's a concerning view of how science actually works.
Please name me these 'significant' disputes. Start with math.
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I mean that's quite an assertion given how the value of existing digital ad space is already cratering and users are more than ever in open rebellion against ad supported services. And besides which, isn't the whole selling point of AI to be an agent that accesses the internet and filters out the bullshit? So what, you're going to do that, then add your own bullshit to the output?
I agree with everything you said in your previous post. The LLM as a search engine might basically eat Google's lunch in the same way the internet ate cable tv's lunch. Cable tv was a terrible product due to the advertising, and you could escape the BS by watching stuff online. Now look where we are.
I noticed visiting a hotel recently (like fuck I pay for cable!) that their cable service had sped up the intro of Law and Order SVU, presumably to make room for more advertisements.
Kind of feels like the ride-sharing early days. Lots of capital being plowed into a handful of companies to grab market share. Economics don't really make sense in the short term because the vast majority of cash flows are still far in the future (Zero to One). In the end the best funded company, Uber, is now the most valuable (~$150B). Lyft, the second best funded, is 30x smaller. Are there any other serious ride sh…
It took 15 years for Uber to turn a profit. Will AI investors have that much patience?
AI offers WAAAAYYYYY more money in the future.
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The car wasn't a horse that was better, but a car has not changed drastically since they went mainstream. They've gotten better, more efficient, loaded with tech, but are still roughly 4 seats, 4 doors, 4 wheels, driven by petroleum. I know that this is a massive oversimplification, but I think we have seen the "shape" of LLMs\Gen AI\AI products already and it's all incremental improvements from here on out with more…
Feels like someone might have said this in 1981 about personal computers. "We've pretty much seen their shape. The IBM PC isn't fundamentally very different from the Apple II. Probably it's just all incremental improvements from here on out."
It seems very difficult to build a moat around a product when the product is supposed to be a generally capable tool and the input is English text. The more truly generally intelligent these models get the more interchangeable they become. It's too easy to swap one out for another.
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The car wasn't a horse that was better, but a car has not changed drastically since they went mainstream. They've gotten better, more efficient, loaded with tech, but are still roughly 4 seats, 4 doors, 4 wheels, driven by petroleum. I know that this is a massive oversimplification, but I think we have seen the "shape" of LLMs\Gen AI\AI products already and it's all incremental improvements from here on out with more…
Feels like someone might have said this in 1981 about personal computers. "We've pretty much seen their shape. The IBM PC isn't fundamentally very different from the Apple II. Probably it's just all incremental improvements from here on out."
I think in fact the previous point stands: we've seen the shape of what's coming, it's gonna be now about incremental steps.
AI companies are promising AGI to investors to survive a few more years before they probably collapse and don't deliver on that promise.
LLMs are now a commodity. It's time for startups to build meaningful products with it!
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If this was true, you could lay back relaxed and watch where your brain takes you. But we experience life as a never ending stream of choices, usually between what's easy and what's right, and pursuing the right choice takes a constant effort. We are presented with problems and have to figure out solutions on our own, with no guarantees of success. This "I'm just an observer" idea may be true at some higher level, if…
> pursuing the right choice I don't agree with this framing. A person's opinion of what a "good" or "right" outcome is is one of the inputs to the algorithm . When you decide to put in less effort it's affecting the algorithm because the weight of the high-effort outcome is reduced.
The trouble is, you see, that if you do know Right from Wrong you can't choose Wrong. You just can't do it and live.
This is like when VCs were funding all kinds of ride share, bike share, food delivery, cannabis delivery, and burning money so everyone gets subsidized stuff while the market figures out wtf is going on. I love it. More goodies for us
Where I live the ridesharing/delivering startups didn't bring goodies, they just made everything worse. They destroyed the Taxi industry, I used to be able to just walk out to the taxi rank and get in the first taxi, but not anymore. Now I have to organize it on an app or with a phone call to a robot, then wait for the car to arrive, and finally I have to find the car among all the others that other people called. Fo…
In every city I have lived, that is a good thing, despite all the bad things ridesharing startups may have done.