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Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

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Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#631

Post by sumtechguy »

StefanWestfal wrote: post #630
sumtechguy wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not AGI I am worried about. It is 'good enough' AI. I am doing some self introspection and trying to decide what I am going to do next. As at some point what I do is going to be wildly automated. We can cope or whine or complain about it. But at some point I need to pay the bills. So it needs to be something that is value add and decently difficult to automate. Software was that but not for long. Now mix gettin…

In simple economics, a decrease in price typically results in an increase in demand, unless the demand is inelastic. Anecdotal experience: Onset of tools such as NumPy, which made it more feasible for a wider range of people to write their own simulations due to drop in cost (time/complexity). This, in turn, increased the demand for tooling, infrastructure, optimisation, etc. and demand for software engineers increas…

I do understand that. But in this case the supply of who can do the work is about to increase wildly too. That should mean a decrease in the price the 'programmer' can demand. I was mostly thinking along your lines until the other day when someone typed into the latest chat gpt 'write me a game of tetris in python' pasted the error that hallucinated out of it back into the thing and it spat out an acceptable program that did tetris. It compiled and ran and was a roughly decent copy of the game tetris. All in about 5-10 mins.

That is 'good enough' I am looking at. Throw away code to do one or two bespoke things and moving on. Why keep it when the next version of this can just make a better version next time. Why keep that expensive programmer on staff to do this when I can hire a couple of dudes from india to type a few prompts in or do it myself? The value of programming is dropping very fast. Or in economic terms the price someone is willing to pay for a given amount of code is going to go down. But the demand for the amount of code will go up. That on the surface looks like a wash but I am leaning to a reduction of what I can charge.

One of the basics of an economy is trading money for time. If it takes 5 mins to make and just about anyone can do it. How much money are you willing to come up with to pay for that?

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#632

Post by mindslight »

saagarjha wrote: post #625
mindslight wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A whole new shower is less than $200 at REI, and solar generators ship directly to your house. (And on a serious note - if your parents are both still alive and moving in with you while they have hobbies and self-actualization, you're way ahead of the game)

And labor is free, right?

I mean, you can pay someone to hold the sprayer up for you if you want. That is probably nicer when you've got soap in your hair.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#634

Post by famouswaffles »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #628
famouswaffles wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are predictors not imitators. They don't "mimick". They predict and that's a pretty big difference.

Well, it's typically going to be a collective voice, not an individual, but they are certainly mimicking ... they are trying to predict what the collective voice will say next - to mimick it.

No it's more like they are trying to predict what some given human might say(#amongst other things).

a pretrained transformer in the limit does not converge on any collective or consensus state in that sense and in fact, pre-training actually punishes this. It learns to predict the words of Feynman as readily as the dumbass across the street.

When i say that GPT does not mimic, i mean that the training objective literally optimizes for beyond that.

Consider pairs. You can't predict this without cracking the hash algorithm, but you could easily fool a GAN's discriminator(one that has learnt to compute hash functions) just by generating typical instances.

# Consider that some of the text on the Internet isn't humans casually chatting or extemporaneous speech. It's the results section of a science paper. It's news stories that say what happened on a particular day. It's text that people crafted over hours or days.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#635

Post by tasuki »

theGnuMe wrote: post #405
mewpmewp2 wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say that reaching this type of position requires exceeding amount of ambition, drive and craving in the first place, and all and any steps during the process of getting there solidify that by giving the dopamine hits to be addicted to such success, so it is not a case where you can just stop and decide "I'll chill now".

Dopamine hits... I wonder if this explains why the OpenAI folks tweet a lot... It's kind of weird right, to tweet a lot? But all these tweets from lower level execs as well. I mean I love Machine Learning twitter hot takes because it exposes me to interesting ideas (and maybe that is why people tweet) but it seems more about status seeking/marketing than anything else. And really as I learn more, you see that the lit…

Have some dopamine, I upvoted you!

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#636

Post by jordanb »

snowwrestler wrote: post #572
navjack27 wrote: post #514

Okay hear me out. Restructuring for profit right? There will probably be companies spawned off of all of these leaving. If the government ever wants a third party to oversee safety of openAI wouldn't it be convenient if one of those that left the company started a company that focused on safety. Safe Superintelligence Inc. gets the bid because lobbying because whatever I don't even care what the reason is in this mad…

I think the departures and switch to for-profit model may point in a different direction: that everyone involved is realizing that OpenAI’s current work is not going to lead to AGI, and it’s also not going to change. So the people who want to work on AGI and safety are leaving to do that work elsewhere, and OpenAI is restructuring to instead focus on wringing as much profit as possible out of their current architectu…

> See the failure of huge conglomerates like GE

GE was a successful company as a major conglomarate which made aircraft engines, railroad locomotives and light bulbs.

GE was a failure as a financialized "engine of financial performance" that was focused entirely on spinning off businesses, outsourcing, and speculating in the debt derivatives market.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#637

Post by grey-area »

paxys wrote: post #167
grey-area wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Altman was not there at the start. He came in later, as he did with YC.

He became CEO later, but was always part of the founding team at OpenAI.

You have to be careful with founder status it is often retrospectively applied (e.g. musk is ‘founder’ of tesla) and their role inflated, ignoring the contributions of others.

Not sure in this case what input he had early on but others seem to have had much more impact in key technical hires/decisions.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#638

Post by sunnynagam »

freilanzer wrote: post #533
yas_hmaheshwari wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whoa! This definitely looks much more troubling for the company now. Can't decide it is because AGI is coming very soon OR AGI is very far away

Why would they leave if AGI was near?

To travel and spend time with their family and just not work a job knowing that their stake/share is likely worth millions and maybe one day billions.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#639

Post by dartos »

boroboro4 wrote: post #626
dartos wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do way more than correcting grammar, but tbf, they did make something like 10,000 submissions to the math Olympiad to get that score. It’s not like it’ll do it consistently. Just a marketing stunt.

You’re talking about informatics Olympiad and O-1. As for Google’s DeepMind network and math Olympiad it didn’t do 10000 submissions. It did however generated bunch of different solutions but it was all automatic (and consistent). We’re getting there.

I wouldn’t really put AlphaProof in the came category as o1, Claude, or llama.

It was trained to generate text in the lean language (https://www.lean-lang.org/) which is specifically used for formal proofs.

It’s not a natural language model.

Source: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems...

Google seems to mainly be playing the game of more specialized models (AlphaGo, AlphaProof) with general training methods (AlphaZero)

I do think it’s kind of funny that they mention AGI in that article, but the model is specifically not general.

Re: Mira Murati leaves OpenAI

#640

Post by dartos »

nebula8804 wrote: post #271
bot347851834 wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share an example of a use case you have in mind of this "explainer + RAG" combo you just described? I think that RAG and RAG-based tooling around LLMs is gonna be the clear way forward for most companies with a properly constructed knowledge base but I wonder what you mean by "explainer"?. Are you talking about asking an LLM something like "in which way did the teams working on project X deal with Y problem?"…

I'm not the OP but I got some fun ones that I think are what you are asking? I would also love to hear others interesting ideas/findings. 1. I got this medical provider that has a webapp that downloads graphql data(basically json) to the frontend and shows some of the data to the template as a result while hiding the rest. Furthermore, I see that they hide even more info after I pay the bill. I download all the data,…

1. The cynic in my really doesn’t want to send my medical records to openai.

2. I think if the data was significantly large, the llm would alias a ton of potentially important info.

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