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Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

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Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#82

Bitcoins are clearly negative sum game (resources used, GPUs burned, CO2 emitted, money changed hands). Wish we could do less of it.

I’m just curious - if you were to try making a decentralized currency as a fun project, what mechanism would you use instead? I’m someone who doesn’t really use it, but was fascinated with it before “blockchain” became a buzzword. edit: proof-of-work. I have been out of the loop for years :) My next question is are there downsides to proof-of-stake, and why has bitcoin not moved towards it?

Proof of stake is no different than most traditional governance structures such as corporations in that it relies on a committee with an honest majority to keep the system secure. Validators are supposed to act like some kind of completely neutral, decentralized system, but they are not.

For example, the fundamental principle of PoS is slashing for equivocation: when validators present two alternate versions of history (this could be part of a "double spend" attack), they are supposed to be slashed and have their stake taken away.

It takes 1/3 of validators to successfully pass off two versions of history to a double spend victim. However, 1/3 of validators can censor this slashing transaction. So if a double spend attack happens, the perpetrators of the attack are in charge of punishing themselves.

So, the fundamental security mechanism of PoS, equivocation slashing, can in fact never work in practice to punish an actual attack!

Another example is the idea that participation in a PoS chain is permissionless. This is the case in PoW. However, in PoS, 1/3 of the existing validator set could censor any new validators that would like to join, maintaining complete control of the chain. The existing validators only act as if the system is permissionless.

There has been a large amount of thought put into this paradox, and the PoS research community has settled on the idea that if the validator set breaks these norms, then users can just use a new chain with the same state, and a new, more trustworthy validator set. This has several problems:

- Philosophically, what is the point of creating a system that obviously doesn't work as intended, and then when this is pointed out saying "that's not a problem because users don't have to use the system"?

- The coordination of this hypothetical switch to a better validator set is completely unexplored since it is totally outside of the PoS protocol. It may be very disruptive to users and result in downtime, loss of funds sent during the switchover period, multiple new blockchains, or other issues and confusion.

- The fact that the system does not work, and there must always be the possibility of human operators sorting things out based on an undefined recovery procedure means that truly autonomous and truly secure clients are not possible in PoS. This is a problem for both far-out concepts like self-owned self-driving cars, and for bridges between blockchains, which must always rely on either trusting the validators, or a multisig made of trusted people who can stop or reconfigure the bridge.

In fact, there is no clear dividing line between a PoS blockchain, a PoA blockchain (this has a predefined validator set), a multisig, and a single entity running a chain. The only differences between these models are a matter degree of diffusion of authority.

This is what Bitcoin people do not like about PoS. PoW has its own problems, but they are different, and PoW chains do not rely on a set of trusted operators in the same way.

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m just curious - if you were to try making a decentralized currency as a fun project, what mechanism would you use instead? I’m someone who doesn’t really use it, but was fascinated with it before “blockchain” became a buzzword. edit: proof-of-work. I have been out of the loop for years :) My next question is are there downsides to proof-of-stake, and why has bitcoin not moved towards it?

Bitcoin's advantage is mainly its name recognition and unchanging nature (== trust and protocol stability). You could never get the necessary support for any meaningful changes. For people who want proof-of-stake there are plenty of coins doing that. Etherium is probably the best known most established option. But no coin really solves the other big challenge of crypto-currency: barely anyone uses them as currency. M…

I have actually used it to rent VPS, buy game keys(mostly steam), donate to some OSS devs who were promoting crypto currency, donated some to random friends(all of whom lost interest or their wallet secrets), converted to other currencies, lost my own wallet key etc.

All these happened in very early days of bitcoin when one could mine using CPU and join a mining pool and others like litecoin were up and coming.

But then, I lost interest as txn fees were eye watering and I was scammed several times by various steam key selling sites never completing my order and blocking me immediately if I complained. I realized that, this non-reversible form of currency was excellent for scam and fraud and I could not cry on the phone about these scams unlike how I can for my MasterCard/Visa/Amex.

Now I come to think of it, if I held onto my bitcoins, I would be retiring wealthy, but alas, I was young and naïve :’)

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#84
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All currencies are negative sum when you only consider minting and transaction costs.

So where’s the productive output?

For the economic impact of monetary systems, the main role of currencies is handling credit - handling direct transactions is intuitively the direct application, but the impact of transaction costs ('costs' in the economic theory sense, not only the direct expenses but also any barriers, difficulties, risks, etc) on the economy, while significant, is not as huge as the impact of availability of credit and supply of money.

For example, when considering dollars, having the possibility to detach the dollar from the gold standard was so extremely valuable to the economy that all the possible transaction costs with handling paper or coins are a rounding error compared to that. Enabling fractional reserve banking is an immense effect on the productive output, due to the big increase in productive investment it enables, so it matters a lot whether a monetary system can support that. Historical changes to what metals were used for coins had a huge impact on economy not because of some decrease in transaction costs but because of changes to money supply. Etc.

At it's core, the primary function of finance is (and arguably has historically always been) handling debt, not handling transfers. So evaluating a currency system on the basis of how good it is for transactions is kind of putting the cart ahead of the horse, if the nature of that currency has, as most cryptocurrencies do, a major impact on the money supply (and thus handling debt).

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#85
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My next question is are there downsides to proof-of-stake, and why has bitcoin not moved towards it? There are minor downsides in theory. Proof-of-stake is a bit less "democratic" and gives more voting share to those who have more money, vs. just are mining. In practice, proof-of-stake coins seem to be doing fine. The main one here is Ethereum. The main reason Bitcoin hasn't is due to inertia and the interest for m…

Proof-of-stake ruins it's security with a rich get richer endgame where the stakers concentrate until it's not distributed enough and one entity or group can collude and control the system and there's no way to exit that state.

Wouldn't any such holder want to avoid this condition developing as it would devalue the whole currency?

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#86
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All currencies are negative sum when you only consider minting and transaction costs.

So where’s the productive output?

Currencies are used to facilitate trade, which I suppose would be their productive output

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#87
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m just curious - if you were to try making a decentralized currency as a fun project, what mechanism would you use instead? I’m someone who doesn’t really use it, but was fascinated with it before “blockchain” became a buzzword. edit: proof-of-work. I have been out of the loop for years :) My next question is are there downsides to proof-of-stake, and why has bitcoin not moved towards it?

Proof-of-work in its current form needs to die. If it is based on proof-of-work it needs to be something useful. If someone can prove proof-of-work won't work without wasted work then we need to make some sacrifices to make it workable. Because we cannot allow slow as molasses and/or extremely wasteful for all future. If it is based on proof-of-stake there needs to be a fair distribution model. I have some ideas for…

On the one hand we have people wanting a proof of work system there the work has value. On the other hand we have a developing AI industry giving out vast amounts of "work needing done". Someone needs to try connecting those.

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just some examples: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_currency_controls_(2... https://www.statista.com/statistics/316750/inflation-rate-in... https://hongkongfp.com/2023/12/15/hong-kong-govt-amends-nati... https://www.ibanet.org/article/5584f623-6456-4287-8c34-1907b... https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/20/americas/canada-trucker-p...

In the case of Argentina, in most cases people have turned to the much safer USD.

Only when and where they've been allowed to.

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#89
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is Binance US and Binance the global version. I expect Binance US to be tailored to US laws and regulations, but are you implying the global version is also under tight US govt control?

Yes, global banks also fall under US control if they want to transact with anything in the US financial system. Less so if they don’t have American customers, but they still do have to follow American laws. For example several very old Swiss banks have been shut down by US regulators because they were doing business in the US with US citizens and their secrecy was being used to break US law by Americans.

Do you have a source for that? It sounds interesting and I want to learn more, as I was not aware of anything like this happening.

Re: Binance founder 'CZ' leaves prison on Friday

#90
post #38

Bitcoins are clearly negative sum game (resources used, GPUs burned, CO2 emitted, money changed hands). Wish we could do less of it.

At least they don't take people's jobs away or threaten / replace them. Unlike AI, which also burns GPUs, emits CO2 and the money is all evaporated into inference and training costs with little to no efficient alternatives to reduce it and also wasting tons of water. Cryptocurrencies at least have alternative efficient methods of consensus, such as proof-of-stake making it possible to reduce the said resources as muc…

While you may see that I vigorously comment against all the AI hype, I do not believe AI is as useless and wasteful as crypto currencies.

Beyond the LLM fad, AI is also being used in other pharmaceutical and scientific research as well as modern weather and disaster forecasting.

Also, I believe LLMs will get better over time and far cheaper to operate once they become more widely adapted. Think the super computers of our grand-dad era vs your Android/iPhone.

AI will get better over time and become more beneficial to us, but not in the form of current over hype fad that is flying because Sama needs to protect his investment and exit, he is a businessman above all else. AI innovation will come from the silent group who are busy with actual development and less hype generation. There is a saying that empty whistle makes most noise etc.

My IDE(mostly jetbrains products) make me 10x more productive. Claude/Phind saves me immense amount of time not having to sort through 100 garbage SEO spam results or try to waste time reading incoherent out dated documentation(followed by having to look through the source code) to find an important concept or reference to some third party library/application. These are real values that not only makes my day less stressful, it also makes my employer benefit accordingly by having me available to other important stuff with my freed time during working hours.

Crypto currency did not help anyone, only helped some grifters get rich, some ignorant people to lose money and numerous crooks to run ransomware attacks and easier time moving the loot.

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