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I Am Tired of AI

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Re: I Am Tired of AI

#661

Post by leptons »

cubefox wrote: post #250

I'm not tired, I'm afraid. First, I'm afraid of technological unemployment. In the past, automation meant that workers could move into non-automated jobs, if they were skilled enough. But superhuman AI seems now only few years away. It will be our last invention, it will mean total automation. There will be hardly any, if any, jobs left only a human can do. Many countries will likely move away from a job-based market…

China's economy would simply crash if they ever went to war with the US. They know this. Everyone knows this, except maybe you? China has nothing to gain by going to "hot" war with the US.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#662

Post by leptons »

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #472
StrLght wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extrapolation of past progress isn't evidence.

You don't have to extrapolate. There's a frenzy of talent being applied to this problem, it's drawing more brainpower the more progress that is made. Young people see this as one of the most interesting, prestigious, and best-paying fields to work in. A lot of these researchers are really talented, and are doing more than just scaling up. They're pushing at the frontiers in every direction, and finding methods that w…

The AI bubble is already starting to burst. They Sam Altmans' of the world over-sold their product and over-played their hand by suggesting AGI is coming. It's not. What they have is far, far, far from AGI. "AI" is not going to be as important as you think it is in the near future, it's just the current tech-buzz and there will be something else that takes its place, just like when "web 2.0" was the new hotness.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#663

Post by m463 »

low_tech_love wrote: post #27

The most depressing thing for me is the feeling that I simply cannot trust anything that has been written in the past 2 years or so and up until the day that I die. It's not so much that I think people have used AI, but that I know they have with a high degree of certainty, and this certainty is converging to 100%, simply because there is no way it will not. If you write regularly and you're not using AI, you simply…

I think ... between now and the day you die... you'll get your personal AI to read things for you. It will analyze what's been written, check any arguments for fallacious reasoning, and look up related things for background and omissions that may support or negate things.

It is actually happening now.

I've noticed amazon reviews have an AI summary at the top, reading the reviews for you and even pointing out shortcomings.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#664

Post by mvdtnz »

cubefox wrote: post #305
neta1337 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But superhuman AI seems now only few years away Seems unreasonable. You are afraid because marketing gurus like Altman made you believe that a frog that can make bigger leap than before will be able to fly.

No, because we have seen massive improvements in AI over the last years, and all the evidence points to this progress continuing at a fast pace.

Does it though? I have seen the progress basically stop at "shitty sentence generator that can't stop lying".

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#665

Post by mvdtnz »

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #472
StrLght wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extrapolation of past progress isn't evidence.

You don't have to extrapolate. There's a frenzy of talent being applied to this problem, it's drawing more brainpower the more progress that is made. Young people see this as one of the most interesting, prestigious, and best-paying fields to work in. A lot of these researchers are really talented, and are doing more than just scaling up. They're pushing at the frontiers in every direction, and finding methods that w…

> There's a frenzy of talent being applied to this problem, it's drawing more brainpower the more progress that is made. Young people see this as one of the most interesting, prestigious, and best-paying fields to work in. A lot of these researchers are really talented, and are doing more than just scaling up. They're pushing at the frontiers in every direction, and finding methods that work.

You could have seen this exact kind of thing written 5 years ago in a thread about blockchains.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#666

Post by Animats »

I'm tired of LLMs.

Enough billions of dollars have been spent on LLMs that a reasonably good picture of what they can and can't do has emerged. They're really good at some things, terrible at others, and prone to doing something totally wrong some fraction of the time. That last limits their usefulness. They can't safely be in charge of anything important.

If someone doesn't soon figure out how to get a confidence metric out of an LLM, we're headed for another "AI Winter". Although at a much higher level than last time. It will still be a billion dollar industry, but not a trillion dollar one.

At some point, the market for LLM-generated blithering should be saturated. Somebody has to read the stuff. Although you can task another system to summarize and rank it. How much of "AI" is generating content to be read by Google's search engine? This may be a bigger energy drain than Bitcoin mining.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#667

Post by eastbound »

nyarlathotep_ wrote: post #557
wickedsight wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You and I seem to live in very different worlds. The one I live and work in is full of over confident devs that have no actual IT education and mostly just copy and modify what they find on the internet. The average level of IT people I see daily is down right shocking and I'm quite confident that OP's workflow might be better for these people in the long run.

It's going to be very funny in the next few years when Accenture et al charge the government billions for a simple Java crud website thing that's entirely GPT-generated, and it'll still take 3 years and not be functional. Ironically, it'll be of better quality then they'd deliver otherwise. This is probably already happening.

GPT will be masters at make-believe. The project will last 15 years and cost a billion before the government finds that its a big bag of nothing.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#668

Post by Vegenoid »

cubefox wrote: post #412
9dev wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There will be hardly any, if any, jobs left only a human can do. A highly white-collar perspective. The great irony of technologist-led industrial revolution is that we set out to automate the mundane, physical labor, but instead cannibalised the creative jobs first. It's a wonderful example of Conway's law, as the creators modelled the solution after themselves. However, even with a lot of programmers and lawyers…

Advanced AI will solve robotics as well, and do away with human physical labor.

And with a wave of a hand and a reading of the tea leaves, the future has been foretold.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#669

Post by Vegenoid »

khafra wrote: post #339
neta1337 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But superhuman AI seems now only few years away Seems unreasonable. You are afraid because marketing gurus like Altman made you believe that a frog that can make bigger leap than before will be able to fly.

> If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right - Arthur C. Clarke Geoffrey Hinton is a 76 year old Turing Award* winner. What more do you want? *Corrected by kranner

I'd like to see a study on this, because I think it is completely untrue.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#670

Post by WillyWonkaJr »

leptons wrote: post #661
cubefox wrote: post #250

I'm not tired, I'm afraid. First, I'm afraid of technological unemployment. In the past, automation meant that workers could move into non-automated jobs, if they were skilled enough. But superhuman AI seems now only few years away. It will be our last invention, it will mean total automation. There will be hardly any, if any, jobs left only a human can do. Many countries will likely move away from a job-based market…

China's economy would simply crash if they ever went to war with the US. They know this. Everyone knows this, except maybe you? China has nothing to gain by going to "hot" war with the US.

I think it more likely that China will sabotage our electrical grid and data centers.
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