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Fraud, so much fraud

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Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#171

Post by ricksunny »

infamouscow wrote: post #153
testfoobar wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar - when I was younger, I would never have suspected that a scientist was committing fraud. As I've gotten older, I understand that Charlie Munger's observation "“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” is applicable everywhere - including science. Academic scientists' careers are driven by publishing, citations and impact. Arguably some have figured how to game the system to advance their caree…

The Manhattan project was a government project that was run like a startup. If such a project happened today, academic scientists would be trying to figure out ways to bend their existing research to match the grants. Then it would take another 30 years before people started to ask why nothing has been delivered yet.

Sounds like Eric Weinstein'a take (which I appreciate) on theoretical physics research.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#172

Post by Molitor5901 »

But if the NIH had done that in 2016, they wouldn't be in the position they're in now, would they? How many people do we need to check? How many figures do we have to scrutinize? What a mess.

This is the core problem with science today. Everyone is trying desperately to publish as much, and as fast, as they can. Quantity over quality. That quantity dictates jobs, fellowships, grants, and careers. Dare I saw we have a "doping" problem in science and not enough controls. Especially when it comes to "some" countries feverish output of papers that have little to no scientific value, cannot be replicated, full of errors, but at least it's published and they can get a job.

For a long time the numbers have been manipulated and continue to be so, seemingly due to national pride.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of...

https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-pl...

Scholars disagree about the best methodology for measuring publications’ impact, however, and other metrics suggest the United States is still ahead—but barely.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#174

Post by m_fayer »

scarmig wrote: post #69
jimbokun wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My recommendation is for journals to place at least equal importance to publishing replications as for the original studies. Studies that have not been replicated should be published clearly marked as preliminary results. And then other scientists can pick those up and try to replicate them. And institutions need to give near equal weight to replications as to original research when deciding on promotions. Should be…

You should be able to build an entire career out of replications: hired at the best universities, published in the top journals, social prestige and respect. To the point where every novel study is replicated and published at least once. Until we get to that point, there will be far fewer replications than needed for a healthy scientific system.

Similarly, ambitious and difficult experiments that don’t pan out should also be richly rewarded. You just did all of science the service of clearly marking that tempting path with a big “don’t bother” sign, thus saving resources and pointing the ship a little closer to the direction of truth.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#175

Post by edem »

neom wrote: post #11

I'm the furthest thing from a scientist unless you count 3,000 hours of PBS spacetime, but I love science and so science/academia fraud to me, feels kinda like the worst kinda fraud you can commit. Financial fraud can cause suicides and ruin in lives, sure, but I feel like academic fraud just sets the whole of humanity back? I also feel that through my life I've (maybe wrongly) placed a great deal of respect and trus…

I also watched almost all episodes of PBS Spacetime. Some of them multiple times. I'm so happy that Spacetime exists and also that Matt was recruited as a host (in place of Gabe). Highly recommended channel, superb content!

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#176

Post by schmidtleonard »

infamouscow wrote: post #153
testfoobar wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar - when I was younger, I would never have suspected that a scientist was committing fraud. As I've gotten older, I understand that Charlie Munger's observation "“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” is applicable everywhere - including science. Academic scientists' careers are driven by publishing, citations and impact. Arguably some have figured how to game the system to advance their caree…

The Manhattan project was a government project that was run like a startup. If such a project happened today, academic scientists would be trying to figure out ways to bend their existing research to match the grants. Then it would take another 30 years before people started to ask why nothing has been delivered yet.

Nuclear physics had just "cracked open" and there were lots of highly promising prospects to pursue. You can't recreate that historical situation by switching from agile to scrum, or from scrum to agile.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#177

Post by dyauspitr »

eig wrote: post #44

This sort of behavior is only going to worsen in the coming decades as academics become more desperate. It's a prisoner's dilemma: if everyone is exaggerating their results you have to as well or you will be fired. It's even more dire for the thousands of visa students. The situation is similar to the "Market for lemons" in cars: if the market is polluted with lemons (fake papers), you are disincentivized to publish…

It could also have a chilling effect on a lot of breakthrough research. If people are willing to put out what they mostly think is right, it might set back progress decades as well.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#178

Post by dennis_jeeves2 »

sitkack wrote: post #169
testfoobar wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar - when I was younger, I would never have suspected that a scientist was committing fraud. As I've gotten older, I understand that Charlie Munger's observation "“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” is applicable everywhere - including science. Academic scientists' careers are driven by publishing, citations and impact. Arguably some have figured how to game the system to advance their caree…

If humanity is to mature, we should be an open book when it comes to incentives and build a world purposefully with all incentives aligned to the outcomes we collectively agree upon. https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/ Charlie Munger's Misjudgment #1: Incentive-caused Bias https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-2yIO8cnvw https://fs.blog/bias-incentives-reinforcement/

>outcomes we collectively agree upon.

lol, what are the chances?

The average Joe is interested in Dem vs Rep or what the latest show on Netflix.

The average researcher is worried about his livelihood, tenure etc.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#179

Post by dyauspitr »

jimbokun wrote: post #54
eig wrote: post #44

This sort of behavior is only going to worsen in the coming decades as academics become more desperate. It's a prisoner's dilemma: if everyone is exaggerating their results you have to as well or you will be fired. It's even more dire for the thousands of visa students. The situation is similar to the "Market for lemons" in cars: if the market is polluted with lemons (fake papers), you are disincentivized to publish…

My recommendation is for journals to place at least equal importance to publishing replications as for the original studies. Studies that have not been replicated should be published clearly marked as preliminary results. And then other scientists can pick those up and try to replicate them. And institutions need to give near equal weight to replications as to original research when deciding on promotions. Should be…

I think it’s a great idea. It would also give the army of phds an endless stream of real tangible work and a way to quickly make a name for themselves by disproving results.

Re: Fraud, so much fraud

#180

Post by lordfrito »

devwastaken wrote: post #30

Universities became tax funded and the consequences is warm bodies filling chairs. I have experience with a number of big name unis in the U.S. they are all about office and national politics. It's not about the work and hasn't been for a while now. Defund universities. No more student loans, make them have to earn their place in the market or we will continue to suffer under the manipulated system that is actually k…

> Defund universities. No more student loans, make them have to earn their place in the market or we will continue to suffer under the manipulated system that is actually killing students.

This... it's no longer about value its about optics... Problem exists in most industries now. The pendulum needs to swing back the other way before it's too late to stop the decay...

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