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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#391

Post by flir »

mattgreenrocks wrote: post #367
flir wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just for fun, give it a function you wrote, and ask it if it can make any improvements. I reckon I accept about a third of what it suggests.

Not a bad use, though I argue being able to do that critique yourself has a compounding effect over time that is worthwhile.

Well... I have to critique the critique, else how do I know which two thirds to reject?

In theory I'm learning from the LLM during this process (much like a real code review). In practice, it's very rare that it teaches me something, it's just more careful than I am. I don't think I'm ever going to be less slap-dash, unfortunately, so it's a useful adjunct for me.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#392

Post by Workaccount2 »

namaria wrote: post #370
Workaccount2 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That industry will only form if LLMs don't improve from here. But the evidence, both theoretical and empirical, is quite the opposite. In fact one of the core reasons transformers gained so much traction is because they scale so well. If nothing really changes in 3-5 years, then I'd call it a flop. But the writing is on the wall that "scale = smarts", and what we have today still looks like a foundational stage for L…

> In fact one of the core reasons transformers gained so much traction is because they scale so well. > If nothing really changes in 3-5 years, then I'd call it a flop Transformers have been used for what 6 years now? Will you in 6 years say "I'll decide if they don't change the world in another 6 years?"

If the difference between now and 6 years in the future is the same as the difference between now and 6 years ago, a lot of people here will be eating their hats.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#393

Post by freejazz »

JanSt wrote: post #16
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

Nothing snarky about pointing out AGI is nowhere near

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#394

Post by Workaccount2 »

mattgreenrocks wrote: post #373
Workaccount2 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That industry will only form if LLMs don't improve from here. But the evidence, both theoretical and empirical, is quite the opposite. In fact one of the core reasons transformers gained so much traction is because they scale so well. If nothing really changes in 3-5 years, then I'd call it a flop. But the writing is on the wall that "scale = smarts", and what we have today still looks like a foundational stage for L…

Self-driving cars have been 3-5 years away for what, a decade now?

I never paid much attention to Elon.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#395

Post by ashkankiani »

JanSt wrote: post #16
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

LLMs make mediocre engineers into slightly less mediocre engineers, and non-engineers into below mediocre engineers. They do nothing above the median. I've tried dozens of times to use them productively.

Outside of very very short isolated template creation for some kind of basic script or poorly translating code from one language to another, they have wasted more time for me than they saved.

The area they seem to help people, including me, the most in is giving me code for something I don't have any familiarity with that seems plausible. If it's an area I've never worked in before, it could maybe be useful. Hence why the less breadth of knowledge in programming you have, the more useful it is. The problem is that you don't understand the code it produces so you have to entirely be reliant on it, and that doesn't work long term.

LLMs are not and will not be ready to replace programmers within the next few years, I guarantee it. I would bet $10k on it.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#396

Post by airstrike »

Night_Thastus wrote: post #385
egocodedinsol wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this attitude is so ridiculously disingenuous. Surely if a computer can score incredibly well on math olympiad questions, among other things, "a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences" is dismissive at best. I have no idea about AGI but honestly how can you use claude or chatgpt and come away unimpressed? It's like looking at spaceX and saying golly the space winter is going to be harsh because t…

There's a big difference between those two examples. Mars is hard but there are paths forward. More efficient engines, higher energy density fuels, lighter materials, better shielding, etc, etc. It's hard but there are paths forward to make it possible with enough time and money. We have an understanding of how to get from what we have now to what makes Mars possible. With LLMs, there is no path from LLM -> gAI. No a…

_unless_ intelligence is really mostly an emergent property of something very similar to language, in which case we're most of the way there

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#397

Post by cdchn »

j_maffe wrote: post #354
cdchn wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the 7T number is his concept of what he can probably get a bunch of oil sheiks to give him.

The GDP of UAE is 500B, 1.1T in Saudi, and 230B in Qatar. It'd take them decades to provide that kind of money.

It'd probably take decades to build that many fabs anyways.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#398

Post by stackghost »

airstrike wrote: post #361
davidbalbert wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sometimes wonder if we’re just very advanced stochastic parrots. Repeatedly, we’ve thought that humans and animals were different in kind, only to find that we’re actually just different in degree: elephants mourn their dead, dolphins have sex for pleasure, crows make tools (even tools out of multiple non-useful parts! [1]). That could be true here. LLMs are impressive. Nobody knows whether they will or won’t lead…

I swear I read this exact same thread in nearly every post about OpenAI on HN. It's getting to a point where it almost feels like it's all generated by LLMs

You mean the standard refrain of "we too are stochastic parrots"? Yes, that argument gets trotted out over and over.

LLM proponents seem unwilling to accept that we comprehend the words we speak/write in a way that LLMs are not capable of doing.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#399

Post by shriek »

sensanaty wrote: post #202
Roark66 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't understand how anyone can use these tools (copilot especially) to make entire projects from scratch and expand them later. They just lead you down the wrong path 90% of the time. Personally I much prefer Chatgpt. I give it specific small problems to resolve and some context. At most 100 lines of code. If it gets more the quality goes to shit. In fact copilot feels like chatgpt that was given too much context.

I hear it all the time on HN that people are producing entire apps with LLMs, but I just don't believe it. All of my experiences with LLMs have been that for anything that isn't a braindead-simple for loop is just unworkable garbage that takes more effort to fix than if you just wrote it from scratch to begin with. And then you're immediately met with "You're using it wrong!", "You're using the wrong model!", "You're…

Most of the time the entire apps are just a timer app or something simple. Never a complex app with tons of logic in them. And if you're having to write paragraphs of texts to write something complex then might as well just write that in a programming language, I mean isn't that what high-level programming language was built for? (heh). Also, you're not the only one who's had the thought that someone is vested in someway to overhype this.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#400

Post by sub7 »

bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

You are absolutely correct about where we are but don't underestimate what 100s of billions of $ can build as well. There are already credible teams working on "math AI" and "truth AI" which will likely end up combing bullshit generating LLMs with traditional but automated relational db retrievals and produce output that is both believable and correct.

IMO it will be done vertical by vertical, with no standard interface coming for a while.

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