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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#231

Post by bamboozled »

autoconfig wrote: post #132
rubyfan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back. Or even AI a couple of years back, remember Watson? The hype cycle was faster to close that time.

When you do something that is extraordinarily hard, sometimes it takes longer than you expect. But now we're here: https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/20/waymo-is-now-giving-100000...

To be fair, is waymo "only" AI? I'm guessing it's a composite of GPS (car on a rail), some high detailed mapping, and then yes, some "AI" involved in recognition and decision making of course but the car isn't an AGI so to speak? Like it wouldn't know how to change a tyre or fix the engine or drive some where the mapping data isn't yet available ?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#232

Post by [deleted] »

bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

[deleted]

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#233

Post by refulgentis »

jsheard wrote: post #20
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

CoT is not RL'ing over reasoning traces, costs have come down 87.5% since that article, and I agree generally that "free" is a bad price point

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#234

Post by no_op »

bob1029 wrote: post #151

It is clear to me that Sam has never set foot inside of a semiconductor manufacturing facility. Or, if he did he definitely wasn't paying attention to what was going on around him. I don't know how you could witness these things and then make glib statements about building 36 of them. It will likely take well over a decade to recoup investment on any new chip fab at this point. Chasing ~4 customers on one narrow use…

In his recent "Intelligence Age" post, Altman says superintelligence may be only a few thousand days out. This might, of course, be wrong, but skyrocketing demand for chips is a straightforward consequence of taking it seriously.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#236

Post by dangitman »

JanSt wrote: post #16
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

[dead]

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#237

Post by alonsonic »

cml123 wrote: post #210
binocarlos wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

yes, but does your colleague even fully understand what was generated? Does he have a good mental map of the organization of the project? I have a good mental map of the projects I work on because I wrote them myself. When new business problems emerge, I can picture how to solve them using the different components of those applications. If I hadn't actually written the application myself, that expertise would not exi…

AI assistants are also quite good at helping you create a high level map of a codebase. They are able to traverse the whole project structure and functionality and explain to you how things are organized and what responsibilities are. I just went back to an old project (didn't remember much about it) and used Cursor to make a small bug fix and it helped me get it done in no time. I used it to identify where the issue might be based on logs and then elaborate on potential causes before then suggesting a solution and implementing it. It's the ultimate pair programmer setup.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#238

Post by pdinny »

jejeyyy77 wrote: post #198
jsheard wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

- it won't work. - ok it works, but it won't be useful. - ok it's useful, but it won't scale. - ok it scales, but it won't make any money. - ok it makes money, but it's not going to last. etc etc

Retrospectively framing technologies that succeeded despite doubts at the time discounts those that failed.

After all, you could have used the exact same response in defense of web3 tech. That doesn't mean LLMs are fated to be like web3, but similarly the outcome that the current expenditure can be recouped is far from a certainty just because there are doubters.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#239

Post by chx »

imiric wrote: post #199
chx wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If humans can be fooled by artificial intelligence in pretty much all areas, This is just preposterous. You can be fooled if you have no knowledge in the area but that's about it. With current tech there is, there can not be anything novel. Guernica was novel. No matter how you train any probabilistic model on every piece of art produced before Guernica it'll never ever create it. There are novel novels (sorry for…

> With current tech there is, there can not be anything novel. I wasn't talking about current tech, which is obviously not at human levels of intelligence yet. I would still say that our progress in the last 100 years, and the last 50 in particular, has been astonishing. What's preposterous is expecting that we can crack a problem we've been thinking about for millennia in just 100 years. Do you honestly think that o…

> Do you honestly think that once we're able to build AI that _fully_ mimics humans by every measurement we have,

What made you think that is measurable and if it is then we can build something like that ever?

I already linked https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/this-one-important-fact-ab... did you read it?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#240

Post by foldr »

renegade-otter wrote: post #107
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

I have yet to watch people be THAT more productive using, say, Copilot. Outside of some annoying boilerplate that I did not have to write myself, I don't know what kind of code you are writing that makes it all so much easier. This gets worse if you are using less trendy languages. No offense, but I have only seen people who barely coded before describe being "very productive" with AI. And, sure, if you dabble, these…

I've definitely noticed Copilot making it less annoying to write code because I don't have to type as much. But I wonder if that significant reduction in subjective annoyance causes people to overestimate how much actual time they're saving.
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